wxeyeNH Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 Hum... taking a look at the upcoming weather over the next week and I could be building up an early season pack up here. Just taking the 18Z GFS run, snow begins Tuesday evening and when it flips or even if it flips is a big question. Even so a plowable amount either way IMO. Then a brief warmup on Wednesday before the pack freezes solid at night. A low sun angle and temperatures in the 30s for many days. Add a possible significant snow event later in the weekend we have a pack that has staying power for awhile. This is why I moved up to NH from Boston many years ago.... 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah next week is the best it’s looked so far. We’ll see if we can time something. Either way I love seeing that western ridge reloading. We’re fighting the La Niña hangover but El Niño keeps trying to punch back…having a battle of those two might actually benefit us in December… You can see the really cold stuff around D9-10 But then it relaxes a little bit you still have a 50/50 look with southern stream active in the south…if you time this correctly, could have a good event in early December Would you call that first picture an example of a split flow? Or do I knit know what I’m looking at? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: A few mangled flakes here this afternoon Several rounds of convective showers along 495 and the pike this afternoon. Temps were close to 50 though so no dice on mangled flakes. Low 40s I think we could have pulled it off. Gorgeous day on the Cape beforehand. Mid Novie is a great time to be there. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 17 minutes ago, radarman said: Several rounds of convective showers along 495 and the pike this afternoon. Temps were close to 50 though so no dice on mangled flakes. Low 40s I think we could have pulled it off. Gorgeous day on the Cape beforehand. Mid Novie is a great time to be there. How was the tanning and swimming? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: How was the tanning and swimming? Water in the sound was about the same as Coast Guard beach in July 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 Raining for the second time today even though there was no rain in the forecast… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 28 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Would you call that first picture an example of a split flow? Or do I knit know what I’m looking at? Second picture is more split flow because you have below normal heights underneath above normal heights out west. It’s not a perfect example though. If you want to see classic split flow out west, check out the days preceding PDII storm in Feb 2003 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 10 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Raining for the second time today even though there was no rain in the forecast… Same here 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Second picture is more split flow because you have below normal heights underneath above normal heights out west. It’s not a perfect example though. If you want to see classic split flow out west, check out the days preceding PDII storm in Feb 2003 Ok thanks Will. But both those other pictures did seem to have low heights underneath high heights out west. Or does the ridge have to be almost directly over the trough to count? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ok thanks Will. But both those other pictures did seem to have low heights underneath high heights out west. Or does the ridge have to be almost directly over the trough to count? You really want it one on top of the other for it to be classic split flow. The first image sort of has hints of one with those low heights hanging back to the SW but it’s not a classic look. The second image in my original post is closer. But you can see how in the more classic PDII image, because there’s split flow, you aren’t pumping a ridge into the northeast with that trough in the southwest. The ridge up top in western Canada is keeping the heights over the northeast much lower. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Raining for the second time today even though there was no rain in the forecast… Had some flakes mixed in here once I got close to home 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 Was out this evening and came home to the ground whitened up and wet roads… so must’ve had a decent squall at some point. Almost looks like it’s a covering of graupel instead of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 Ground starting to coat with this snow shower coming through 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 Some pingers as well 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 3 hours ago, wxeyeNH said: Hum... taking a look at the upcoming weather over the next week and I could be building up an early season pack up here. Just taking the 18Z GFS run, snow begins Tuesday evening and when it flips or even if it flips is a big question. Even so a plowable amount either way IMO. Then a brief warmup on Wednesday before the pack freezes solid at night. A low sun angle and temperatures in the 30s for many days. Add a possible significant snow event later in the weekend we have a pack that has staying power for awhile. This is why I moved up to NH from Boston many years ago.... You’re spot is looking good for best thumping. Even if it rains a little bit at the end… that starts building ground cover with that SWE. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 BOX has been so bad lately .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... 630 PM Update... Main change in the latest update was to add an isolated shower mention across southeast MA/RI. Lower levels have moistened up enough that KSFZ is reporting light rain. Still have roughly 10-15 degree dew point depressions, so most of activity will just be virga, but a couple spots could briefly see an isolated shower. Rest of forecast is on track at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 19 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: BOX has been so bad lately .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... 630 PM Update... Main change in the latest update was to add an isolated shower mention across southeast MA/RI. Lower levels have moistened up enough that KSFZ is reporting light rain. Still have roughly 10-15 degree dew point depressions, so most of activity will just be virga, but a couple spots could briefly see an isolated shower. Rest of forecast is on track at this point You live in the hinterlands now, right? Their focus will not be on weather there. If the ground was whitening along the RT 128 corridor, they’d mention it. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 Picked up about 2” of the fake stuff. Grounds white again..could be the start of the pack for the season.. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 17 minutes ago, powderfreak said: You live in the hinterlands now, right? Their focus will not be on weather there. If the ground was whitening along the RT 128 corridor, they’d mention it. Not many care about an inch or two of slush on the hill tops of Beaver Brook in N ORH county...except for those that live there and it's simply not many, so few care. I'm sure they will reference it as it gets closer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 24 minutes ago, powderfreak said: You live in the hinterlands now, right? Their focus will not be on weather there. If the ground was whitening along the RT 128 corridor, they’d mention it. ya I do but still close to route 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not many care about an inch or two of slush on the hill tops of Beaver Brook in N ORH county...except for those that live there and it's simply not many, so few care. I'm sure they will reference it as it gets closer. I was talking about tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 14 minutes ago, bwt3650 said: Picked up about 2” of the fake stuff. Grounds white again..could be the start of the pack for the season. . I saw some pics from up in Coventry that looked very wintry… those snow showers were training just south of the border. Jay eastward into the NEK. Not much down south here today except a grass/mulch coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 A little graupel on my walk just now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 37 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: ya I do but still close to route 2 It’s still out there, away from the forecast office and population. The flip side is a NWS Met who goes into detail about a November coating above 1,000ft in interior New England is often labeled a weenie. What happens there is not going to get the same reaction as other areas… that same snow shower might have gotten an SPS if it’s doing that into BOS right now. In the ORH hills above 1kft? The forecasters know there won’t be a public response wondering what happened, ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 2 hours ago, ineedsnow said: I was talking about tonight Well, even more irrelevant...like a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 Sign me up for the Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 fresh coating here overnight, 1/2 inch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 Sign me up for the EuroI'd hit that Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 That can be tossed. I’m not getting 2-4” here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not many care about an inch or two of slush on the hill tops of Beaver Brook in N ORH county...except for those that live there and it's simply not many, so few care. I'm sure they will reference it as it gets closer. I would care if you were getting a sloppy inch… 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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