Yesvember or November?

[wokeupthisam]

28 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Actually I like your Carharte coat..looks great. 
 

So the birch trees in the background in both those pictures, are two different trees..?

Thanks and yeah, two different birches - you can see them both on the edges of the pic where I'm cutting the tree 

[mreaves]

5 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Should be a pretty good pattern for at least NNE snowfall…

Ray just dumped his glass of Coke on his new laptop. 

[powderfreak]

49 minutes ago, George001 said:

It’s not even that the pattern is super unfavorable or anything, it’s just meh. An typical November pattern, nothing special. And climo for November (even late November) doesn’t support snow outside the far interior and elevations. You basically need everything to be perfect to snow at this time of year. 

It’s been 0 to -2F for temp anomalies over a large area so far in November.  And it looks to stay colder than normal in the means.

Many ski areas from Tahoe to Utah/Wasatch to Colorado are delaying their openings.

The pattern will change, but sometimes what happens in November is remembered during the winter.  Cooler in the means, mixed with shorter high-end torches, that sounds like a New England pattern.  Cold and thaws. Could snow, could rain, but will be colder than normal behind it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Ray just dumped his glass of Coke on his new laptop. 

Need to start somewhere...I'd rather that than December 2015, but it's nothing that makes me interested. An inch of slush in Hubbardston....Booiinngggggg

Some folks look at my outlook track record and say I have a cold and snow bias, but its nothing conscious... just worked out that way. I think you guys agree I am pretty objective in season don't use weenie goggles. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

44 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It’s been 0 to -2F for temp anomalies over a large area so far in November.  And it looks to stay colder than normal in the means.

Many ski areas from Tahoe to Utah/Wasatch to Colorado are delaying their openings.

The pattern will change, but sometimes what happens in November is remembered during the winter.  Cooler in the means, mixed with shorter high-end torches, that sounds like a New England pattern.  Cold and thaws. Could snow, could rain, but will be colder than normal behind it.

 

November has been chilly. I've already burned more wood than last year at this time.  I think Wednesday system gives some accumulating to NNE/CNE.  Elevations of Berks and N Worcester Co. probably get 1-2" of 8:1 accumulations and lower elevations N of RT2 get some measurable slop.  Good excuse to at least change the oil and test the snow blower tomorrow.

[weathafella]

It's amazing how many friends my age think this November has been warm.  I guess growing up with a few very cold Novembers during our formative years skewed people's judgement.   Boston should finish the month solidly below normal considering they came out of the torch still -1.2.  Normal high should drop below 50 by Thanksgiving and 3 degrees/week for about the next month.

[CoastalWx]

Didn’t expect to get into the 20s (28) but now breeze kicked in and it’s 31.1. We fake. 

[Allsnow]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Didn’t expect to get into the 20s (28) but now breeze kicked in and it’s 31.1. We fake. 

Do you think the real Cold comes after the 26th? 

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Do you think the real Cold comes after the 26th? 

Yeah, but remember the time of year. We aren’t talking teens and 20s. Although perhaps one or two days may be well below normal like the 20s. To me, it looks like interior and NNE favored for anything wintry, but a well timed s/w could do it further south. 
 

This doesn’t look quite like a strong Nino look and more like Nina. Core of cold probably in plains or Midwest.

 

Some signs srn stream may get involved so we’ll have to watch for potential coastal lows.

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Do you think the real Cold comes after the 26th? 

You’re just southwest of NYC, that’s a whole different world than interior SNE, with regard to sensible weather most times, especially in the winter.  

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah, but remember the time of year. We aren’t talking teens and 20s. Although perhaps one or two days may be well below normal like the 20s. To me, it looks like interior and NNE favored for anything wintry, but a well timed s/w could do it further south. 
 

This doesn’t look quite like a strong Nino look and more like Nina. Core of cold probably in plains or Midwest.

 

Some signs srn stream may get involved so we’ll have to watch for potential coastal lows.

Thanks. 
 

Yeah, pattern into the first week of December looks more like a Nina Dec (wintry start) then a Nino December with more of a milder start. I think eventually we get that milder look as we go into December 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You’re just southwest of NYC, that’s a whole different world than interior SNE, with regard to sensible weather most times, especially in the winter.  

Obviously 

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Thanks. 
 

Yeah, pattern into the first week of December looks more like a Nina Dec (wintry start) then a Nino December with more of a milder start. I think eventually we get that milder look as we go into December 

I’m wondering if the “milder” period is still serviceable, especially interior. The Pacific jet will perk up, but if we can get some split flow action, it may be enough to keep the source region to our north colder. Our mild and snowless regimes tend to be when we have a massive GOAK low and floods Canada with milder air. The other reason would be if we somehow keep a Nina look and SE ridge flexes. Not sure that will happen though.

[jbenedet]

8 hours ago, powderfreak said:

It’s been 0 to -2F for temp anomalies over a large area so far in November.  And it looks to stay colder than normal in the means.

Many ski areas from Tahoe to Utah/Wasatch to Colorado are delaying their openings.

The pattern will change, but sometimes what happens in November is remembered during the winter.  Cooler in the means, mixed with shorter high-end torches, that sounds like a New England pattern.  Cold and thaws. Could snow, could rain, but will be colder than normal behind it.

CPC drunk with this map. The whole thing should be shifted some 750 miles west

With regard to SNE, there is one day BN on the 6z GEFS through next weekend, and that’s tomorrow. 

Tuesday will start cold but end normal to slightly AN for most. 
 

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

BOX with the first measurable mention for my point and click    

Tuesday Night

Rain, possibly mixed with snow, becoming all rain after 4am. Patchy fog after 10pm. Low around 29. Southeast wind 9 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

 

 

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

BOX with the first measurable mention for my point and click    

Tuesday Night

Rain, possibly mixed with snow, becoming all rain after 4am. Patchy fog after 10pm. Low around 29. Southeast wind 9 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

 

 

 

Tuesday Night

Snow before 3am, then rain, possibly mixed with snow. Patchy fog before 1am, then patchy fog after 3am. Patchy freezing fog between 1am and 3am. Low around 29. Southeast wind 10 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

[CoastalWx]

Man those are terrible forecasts. Automation ftl. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

CPC drunk with this map. The whole thing should be shifted some 750 miles west

With regard to SNE, there is one day BN on the 6z GEFS through next weekend, and that’s tomorrow. 

Tuesday will start cold but end normal to slightly AN for most. 
 

 

Tuesday looks BN until after midnight Wednesday. 

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Man those are terrible forecasts. Automation ftl. 

2 to 4 seems possible?

[WinterWolf]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Man those are terrible forecasts. Automation ftl. 

I completely disregard their BS. Just plain broad brushed trash. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

I completely disregard their BS. Just plain broad brushed trash. 

Not necessarily the forecasts itself, but look at the wording lol. I hate those.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

2 to 4 seems possible?

I’m not sure about 4 yet, but certainly a couple at least for you guys. 

[qg_omega]

14 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

CPC drunk with this map. The whole thing should be shifted some 750 miles west

With regard to SNE, there is one day BN on the 6z GEFS through next weekend, and that’s tomorrow. 

Tuesday will start cold but end normal to slightly AN for most. 
 

 

Old data before the GFS sht the bed

[HoarfrostHubb]

It will all be washed away anyhow.   

[Damage In Tolland]

At least the  Cape up to Scooter get their screamer with 50-60+. Should be wild there. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

At least the  Cape up to Scooter get their screamer with 50-60+. Should be wild there. 

We wedged 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

It will all be washed away anyhow.   

You may have some slush left Wednesday.

[roardog]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not necessarily the forecasts itself, but look at the wording lol. I hate those.

1-3 inches of snow coming from rain possibly mixed with snow becoming all rain after 4AM. I would expect basically just rain from that forecast but somehow you can manage 3 inches of snow out of rain. lol

[WinterWolf]

Nobody gets a screamer lol. 

[Damage In Tolland]

SE MA gets crushed with big winds on models