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Yesvember or November?


Go Kart Mozart
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26 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Lol... You do get a sense the modeling is playing Russian Roulette winter storm game here...

I've been trying to explain to folks ( it likely comes off a little heavy handed but don't mean it to be - ) that there's a fair amount of amplitude signaled in the numerical telecon spread and behavior.  

There's a sequence of events in the spatial/synoptic coverage that fit the canonical relay between the -EPO --> relaxation --> into a +d(PNA).  I suggest it's throwing some operational model versions into a tizzy.  The former signals an intrinsic pattern change from the E-NE Pac arc downstream over the continent and well ...  when have pattern changes ever been exceptionally well handled. 

I would take a step back from really taking any particular operational run very seriously in lieu of ensemble mean. I looked at the EPS and GEFs from 12z and saw reasonable continuity over prior runs. It's really the operational GGEM and GFS that are acting like the unmanned fire hose - but again ... I sort of give them a break at D6 when trying to assess through the inflection of a -EPO / rising PNA relay.

My feeling is that a middling system that is moving fast reenters the GFS frames. 

I also want to caboose Will's sentiments about fast Novembers - that is particularly true when the NE Pac is trying to load Canada ...and once over true again anyway as an observed hemisphere during cold seasons, with increased frequency state over the last 10 to 15 years ( regardless of any longer term planetary indices, too). It's relevant to discourse because these systems are torpedoing

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I also suspect we may deal with this whenever the -EPO pulses during ensuing months - the residual HC height dispersion from the south is just going to offer lingering resistance every time we tried to load colder heights S of the 50 N and we'll be sending B.C. wave to NS in 72 hours flat    ... Perhaps not every  time but a repeating theme.

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At least screamer for all is still there 

Rising temps likely later Tue night
into Wed AM in response to a strong low level S-SE jet. Winds could
become strong late Tue night/Wed in the warm sector, as NAEFS and EC
ENS situational awareness tables offering anomalies of +2.5 to +3.0
associated low level jet, which is pretty high for this time range.
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18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

At least screamer for all is still there 

Rising temps likely later Tue night
into Wed AM in response to a strong low level S-SE jet. Winds could
become strong late Tue night/Wed in the warm sector, as NAEFS and EC
ENS situational awareness tables offering anomalies of +2.5 to +3.0
associated low level jet, which is pretty high for this time range.

ICON screams

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