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Yesvember or November?


Go Kart Mozart
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4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The gfs op has been spitting out a snow event for almost 2 days now…6z was just a little further south with the goods. It’s been persistent with holding this weekend’s trough back allowing for increased confluence as the shortwave ridging tries to move in. So that sfc cold/HP becomes the bully and sfc low redevelopment occurs near the S coast and the cold is wedged in place. The euro boots the weekend trough out quicker and we get more mid level WAA and just a bit of insitu CAD holding and end up with mostly a cold rain. I’d like to see more gefs hits at 12z. The last 2 runs were about 3 out of 20. 

I keep waiting for it to cave on the trough lifting northeast but it keeps stubbornly holding it much longer than other guidance. 
 

My guess is that it is mostly wrong. It will be correct just enough to wedge all of us into a cold rain but wrong enough to keep the snow to a minimum. 

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30 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The 0z GFS still seems like it would be a pretty decent front end thump for interior New England. What could really help in this situation too is timing of the precip. Also, I wouldn't totally discount the solution of 6z. There is definitely signs for secondary low development so if that primary doesn't become overly strong (or even weakens) the secondary could be more of a factor. Is it likely? Probably not, but this is going to be a very complex evolution and we need to see a better handle of the synoptic evolution. 

I am discounting it due to low track, location, and the calendar date. Like the pope said, there isn’t really anything to force such aggressive Miller B redevelopment. NAO is positive.

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I keep waiting for it to cave on the trough lifting northeast but it keeps stubbornly holding it much longer than other guidance. 
 

My guess is that it is mostly wrong. It will be correct just enough to wedge all of us into a cold rain but wrong enough to keep the snow to a minimum. 

Something to just keep an eye on because I have anecdotally noticed that the GFS has closed the gap and is beating the EURO more frequently of late. I'm sure the EURO is still superior guidance, but its not night and day any longer.

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6 minutes ago, George001 said:

I am discounting it due to low track, location, and the calendar date. Like the pope said, there isn’t really anything to force such aggressive Miller B redevelopment. NAO is positive.

NAO to me looks to be transitioning. I wouldn't classify the NAO as a textbook +NAO. 

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17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I keep waiting for it to cave on the trough lifting northeast but it keeps stubbornly holding it much longer than other guidance. 
 

My guess is that it is mostly wrong. It will be correct just enough to wedge all of us into a cold rain but wrong enough to keep the snow to a minimum. 

CMC has more of the euro upper level look as well.

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8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The euro over the last couple days has been ticking further east with next weeks storm too, So i wouldn't totally right it off, I would favor the early climo areas right now for some wintry precip until closer in, GFS has been pretty stubborn as mentioned.

I would call first flakes a win.

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Mm... I beg to differ there.  This 06z is a significant and large synoptic morphology over previous solutions. 

Should one choose to except that solution/evolution ( :unsure:)  ... it throws a big monkey wrench into the previous plan for a deeply wound 500 mb/SPV over Lake Superior  -like idea, which would've driven the previous idea of a primary going up moose-fartsville Canada with weak ( perhaps crucial for deep interior mix/ice) secondary... blah blan.

The 06z completely rearranged the synoptic evolution ... shallowing out the wholesale 500 mb trough.  There's a lot of ways this mechanically differentiates the entire eastern continent pattern. For one, the loss of compression and shallower 500 mb super massive black hole allows a middle mass proto star event to orbit it's S/W around the underside. It is allowed to maintain enough of its own amplitude to ignite the NJ model -like solution we see there.  This new total solution change in the scaffold, which results in a different surface evolution.

Anyway, I think'll be interesting to see if any other guidance begin to collapse that way.  Forget the arguments on the differences, what an awesome mid range model highlight that would be - posterized slam dunk ownership.

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37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's also 6-7 days out so op runs can still be wild. We ensemble for now. I wouldn't bash an op run over 6 days out for how it performed.

It’s not that far away so if it is wrong which it probably is, it deserves plenty of bashing. That run has significant snow in SNE inside 120 hours. 

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That said, I see what Brian means though ...

I mean just the comparison to the Euro and GGEM's erstwhile solutions ...these latter have been more consolidated and tending more W in the total manifold all along. 

It's kind of an interesting "lesson" maybe?   You know, when you have a valid guidance persisting with some stress on the consensus, you gotta kind of watch for it.  It means there's physics there ( most likely...) that could manifest at some point.  interesting...

In any case, yeah ...goes without saying, DEFINITELY need some sort of support from other guidance sources on this.  lol

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That said, I see what Brian means though ...

I mean just the comparison to the Euro and GGEM's erstwhile solutions ...these latter have been more consolidated and tending more W in the total manifold all along. 

It's kind of an interesting "lesson" maybe?   You know, when you have a valid guidance persisting with some stress on the consensus, you gotta kind of watch for it.  It means there's physics there ( most likely...) that could manifest at some point.  interesting...

In any case, yeah ...goes without saying, DEFINITELY need some sort of support from other guidance sources on this.  lol

First seasonal sequence that has captured a modicum of interest from me....low likelihood, but today's runs have my attention.

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18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

First seasonal sequence that has captured a modicum of interest from me....low likelihood, but today's runs have my attention.

You know ...  back on page 59, I wrote a synoptic op ed that tl;dr for most ( lol ), but I put this statement in there,

"...In both solutions, the western ridge isn't reconnecting into higher latitudes post the N and S/streams passing E. This tends to also limit the stream interaction in lieu of longitudinal wave morphology ( stretching W to E) ..."

I also mentioned to "Pope"  (?) I think they call that Met?  ... something that hearkens to the same notion. I Frankly see the 06z - type antic as perhaps a manifestation of that stretch/stressing in the mass-fields.  Whether it goes on to mean much or not, or slips back ... See, we have to keep in mind, the models are not going to render solutions that are physically IMpossible.  They wouldn't be very useful as 'guidance' means, would they.  They may erroneously focus on some factor, but the factor its self could conceivably still exist.  There's a difference between physically can't, vs erring on variables that feed the physics. 

Anyway, recognition of pattern, it can be a viable means to "correct" ( with uneasiness at times, admittedly) for what the models are doing.  When I said that, it was not beyond the realm of possibility.  So we'll see.  No horses in the race.   I'm leaving the region for the holiday, so y'all mo'fuggas gettin' a minimum of a foot of snow in high winds and blinking power I'm sure  :fulltilt: 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

It's also 6-7 days out so op runs can still be wild. We ensemble for now. I wouldn't bash an op run over 6 days out for how it performed.

Not sure what the exact set up was for TDay  in 87 but we went from cold rain to a pellet fest for a couple inches; I could see that type of scenario 

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