dendrite Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 28° here while it’s near 50° at 2kft. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 46 minutes ago, dryslot said: 06z GEFS telling the OP to put down the bong. Outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 27.0⁰ currently, it has been above 30⁰ only 4 nights so far this month. Definitely great radiating conditions so far.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 34 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Outlier It’s like clockwork…off hour OP runs almost always show crazy solutions in either direction. If every run was showing 8-12” consistently, the 6z and 18z would come out with the storm out over Bermuda with milky sun. It’s comical. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 48 minutes ago, dendrite said: 28° here while it’s near 50° at 2kft. One of the tighter inversions in a while. It’s like 20F warmer just a few hundred feet up. The Stowe Country Club golf course is 28F at the bottom and 44F on the hill behind it, ha. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 That 6z GFS run is what you get with an sig -NAO. And the MJO phase 8/1 None of it fits big picture. MJO phase 1/2, will permit UL ridging in the east. And the forecasted NAO is strongly positive before this system arrives, the Canadian high in the east will be exiting stage right instead of anchored Rope-a-dope run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 3 minutes ago, jbenedet said: That 6z GFS run is what you get with an sig -NAO. And the MJO phase 8/1 None of it fits big picture. MJO phase 1/2, will permit UL ridging in the east. And the forecasted NAO is strongly positive before this system arrives, the Canadian high in the east will be exiting stage right instead of anchored Rope-a-dope run. 65 to Winni? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 low of 28, at 30....city putting Christmas lights on Main st. taking advantage of todays temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 Full fog, wet. Wtf. I need to do leavesSent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 27 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: It’s like clockwork…off hour OP runs almost always show crazy solutions in either direction. If every run was showing 8-12” consistently, the 6z and 18z would come out with the storm out over Bermuda with milky sun. It’s comical. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 Was 41 at my house when I left. Bottom of the hill was 33 with a heavy frost. Maybe 150 foot difference. Crazy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 33 minutes ago, powderfreak said: One of the tighter inversions in a while. It’s like 20F warmer just a few hundred feet up. The Stowe Country Club golf course is 28F at the bottom and 44F on the hill behind it, ha. Near KMWN similar. 27-29 at stations in the valley. 41 up the hill. MW Obs reports 45 at 1600, 40 at 2300, 46 at 3000 and 4000, 41 at 5200 and 36 at the summit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 29° on one side of the notch. 52° on the other. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 Euro is very warm next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 Nice AM on the beach 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: Euro is very warm next week Yeah, the gfs is a huge outlier. Toss it to the sun, obviously 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Euro is very warm next week I don't know if that's happening lol. All the forecasts point to very cool temperatures, especially the beginning of the week. And right after Thanksgiving very very cool. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 Next week might be warm for a day if euro is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yeah, the gfs is a huge outlier. Toss it to the sun, obviously No it's not . Euro is way too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 5 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: I don't know if that's happening lol. All the forecasts point to very cool temperatures, especially the beginning of the week. And right after Thanksgiving very very cool. It’s one day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 Just now, MJO812 said: No it's not . Euro is way too warm Why? Even GEFS are warmer than op. Toss the op for the time being. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 1 hour ago, dendrite said: 28° here while it’s near 50° at 2kft. Foggy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s one day I know... It's qg_omega. Loves to get a rise . Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: Ha. Why do certain times of the day with modeling outputs show crazy stuff like this? What is the reasoning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 The 0z GFS still seems like it would be a pretty decent front end thump for interior New England. What could really help in this situation too is timing of the precip. Also, I wouldn't totally discount the solution of 6z. There is definitely signs for secondary low development so if that primary doesn't become overly strong (or even weakens) the secondary could be more of a factor. Is it likely? Probably not, but this is going to be a very complex evolution and we need to see a better handle of the synoptic evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Why do certain times of the day with modeling outputs show crazy stuff like this? What is the reasoning? I'm curious about this too, if there's a known reason. Especially considering there's an apparent warming they should be factoring in. Why are they seemingly biased to show snowy outputs at these ranges? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 16 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Why do certain times of the day with modeling outputs show crazy stuff like this? What is the reasoning? I don't think there's really a particular time of day run that leads to wild solutions, it's just the nature of a single run deterministic model. You're bound to get a wound up storm every now and then, but the reality is it's just one of 30 to 100 ensemble members. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 45 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Euro is very warm next week Euro has been caving hard. It might be warm one day and it's not very warm at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Euro has been caving hard. It might be warm one day and it's not very warm at all. Euro also tries to show a cutter on Saturday after Tday. Clown range but that is different from most guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 The gfs op has been spitting out a snow event for almost 2 days now…6z was just a little further south with the goods. It’s been persistent with holding this weekend’s trough back allowing for increased confluence as the shortwave ridging tries to move in. So that sfc cold/HP becomes the bully and sfc low redevelopment occurs near the S coast and the cold is wedged in place. The euro boots the weekend trough out quicker and we get more mid level WAA and just a bit of insitu CAD holding and end up with mostly a cold rain. I’d like to see more gefs hits at 12z. The last 2 runs were about 3 out of 20. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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