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Yesvember or November?


Go Kart Mozart
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That 6z GFS run is what you get with an sig -NAO. And the MJO phase 8/1
 

None of it fits big picture. MJO phase 1/2, will permit UL ridging in the east. And the forecasted NAO is strongly positive before this system arrives, the Canadian high in the east will be exiting stage right instead of anchored
 

Rope-a-dope run.

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3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

That 6z GFS run is what you get with an sig -NAO. And the MJO phase 8/1
 

None of it fits big picture. MJO phase 1/2, will permit UL ridging in the east. And the forecasted NAO is strongly positive before this system arrives, the Canadian high in the east will be exiting stage right instead of anchored
 

Rope-a-dope run.

65 to Winni?

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33 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

One of the tighter inversions in a while.

It’s like 20F warmer just a few hundred feet up.

The Stowe Country Club golf course is 28F at the bottom and 44F on the hill behind it, ha.

99B491C3-8FD9-4702-B3C2-EE391193D745.jpeg.095c1d47bc16b5eccee88fb606995838.jpeg

Near KMWN similar.

27-29 at stations in the valley. 41 up the hill. MW Obs reports 45 at 1600, 40 at 2300, 46 at 3000 and 4000, 41 at 5200 and 36 at the summit.

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The 0z GFS still seems like it would be a pretty decent front end thump for interior New England. What could really help in this situation too is timing of the precip. Also, I wouldn't totally discount the solution of 6z. There is definitely signs for secondary low development so if that primary doesn't become overly strong (or even weakens) the secondary could be more of a factor. Is it likely? Probably not, but this is going to be a very complex evolution and we need to see a better handle of the synoptic evolution. 

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4 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Why do certain times of the day with modeling outputs show crazy stuff like this? What is the reasoning?  

I'm curious about this too, if there's a known reason.  Especially considering there's an apparent warming they should be factoring in.  Why are they seemingly biased to show snowy outputs at these ranges?  

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16 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Why do certain times of the day with modeling outputs show crazy stuff like this? What is the reasoning?  

I don't think there's really a particular time of day run that leads to wild solutions, it's just the nature of a single run deterministic model. You're bound to get a wound up storm every now and then, but the reality is it's just one of 30 to 100 ensemble members.

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The gfs op has been spitting out a snow event for almost 2 days now…6z was just a little further south with the goods. It’s been persistent with holding this weekend’s trough back allowing for increased confluence as the shortwave ridging tries to move in. So that sfc cold/HP becomes the bully and sfc low redevelopment occurs near the S coast and the cold is wedged in place. The euro boots the weekend trough out quicker and we get more mid level WAA and just a bit of insitu CAD holding and end up with mostly a cold rain. I’d like to see more gefs hits at 12z. The last 2 runs were about 3 out of 20. 

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