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Yesvember or November?


Go Kart Mozart
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3 hours ago, weathafella said:

That’s a very tough loss Jeff.  I wish you better days ahead.

Thank you Jerry, I'm doing my best to keep a chin up, Its very hard, And there's good days and bad ones, Nobody should need to go thru this but the lord places this on the shoulders of ones that can bare it.

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4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I'd like to try and squeeze something in before it warms up again. Something like an advisory anyways.

 

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the pattern is there for it...if we can hold the cold into the first week of December, I like our chances even more.

At least we have a better shot at something producing this November then last year, It was trying to sugarcoat a crap pattern to the masses to keep them off the tobin early on.

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6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Sorry Jeff for the delayed response.  Managed to Spring check the MXZ XRS 850 Turbo R COMP.  Pretty excited for winter to say the least. 
 

Im So So sorry for your loss Jeff.  Hate hearing this news.  Stay strong my friend. I know you will. 
 

Wolfie. 

You should be excited, I think were in for a good one, That's a nice sled, And thank you.

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29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty anomalous cold pattern post-Tday. EPS wants to carry it into early December. GEFS are trying to break it down a little earlier. 

Looks like a solid 5/7 day window for something to pop. Hopefully someone can cash, because it looks to moderate pretty significantly as we head into December and the extended 

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24 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

White Thanksgiving? Hope it's right

Per that solution, it was a front end changing to IP and ending as cold mist/-R

As others have pointed out, its an outlier - both wrt its ensemble members, and cross guidance in that regard. 

As I went over yesterday morning, amplitude is favored during the week with the larger hemispheric modal changes taking place.  Where?  Unfortunately, west is best given climo.  That's strike 2. 

However, that synoptic cinema next week has an oddity about it.  The typical spatial changes (with respect to time) are taking place at an accelerated rate over climatology.  You can see the -EPO surge... the subsequent +PNA relay --> +d(PNAP) tends to take something like 3 to 5 days.  This is doing so in a 2 day window.  Not sure what it means for pinning down where features will be, but ... the quicker translation of large features in the guidance ( and they're all doing it) should tell us that despite the present consensus, sou'easter- like solutions, stressing climo/stretching may be idiosyncratic - sometimes that shit happens, too. 

I'd put it in low probability and go with W for now.  Cold entry probably on that - regardless.  Just a matter of how long in that phase of it.  'Sides, if it snows at all its a relative win/stand out for most so there's the interpretation game, too.

The period after that is a better fit for rolling up a new risk underneath a ( by then) cold loaded continent above the 40th. Other aspects more appealing out in that range, the SPV anomaly loosens its grip and allows the flow to amplify the 'up under' regions, while the air mass is still conditionally cold enough for cryo

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As an afterthought ... I also still wonder a bit about the 'looming moon rising over the model horizon' with regard to how much of the N/stream is really forced to dive and close off over the Lakes.  That would matter because less of that may allow the nuanced stretching aspect to play out more so.   interesting

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty anomalous cold pattern post-Tday. EPS wants to carry it into early December. GEFS are trying to break it down a little earlier. 

Starting to get more confident in this scenario occurring. what I really like is there is an absence of any PAC air flooding anywhere in Canada or the United States...it's a cold look for a large chunk of the country. 

I am a little concerned, however, that it may be cold/dry but conflicted on this. For as cold of a look that is the pattern is not suppressed...we have the STJ close by with the PJ just to our north so there could be potential for something big to morph during that pattern. However, what concerns me is the barrage of Arctic high's which slide south and east into the Great Plains and into the East...this is what concerns me for the dry look. 

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8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Starting to get more confident in this scenario occurring. what I really like is there is an absence of any PAC air flooding anywhere in Canada or the United States...it's a cold look for a large chunk of the country. 

I am a little concerned, however, that it may be cold/dry but conflicted on this. For as cold of a look that is the pattern is not suppressed...we have the STJ close by with the PJ just to our north so there could be potential for something big to morph during that pattern. However, what concerns me is the barrage of Arctic high's which slide south and east into the Great Plains and into the East...this is what concerns me for the dry look. 

concernedwiz

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

And then every other model has a beast over the Lakes. Wonder which is right 

It wouldn't shock me at all to keep a wedge in place up here with a low tracking that far west. The GFS over the last 2 runs has really increased the confluence here Tue PM. Euro notsomuch yet.

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7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It wouldn't shock me at all to keep a wedge in place up here with a low tracking that far west. The GFS over the last 2 runs has really increased the confluence here Tue PM. Euro notsomuch yet.

Even the Euro was pretty much a complete wedge until FROPA.

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