Yesvember or November?

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe this will be a cold and dry stretch and then the precip comes when we warm up. 

Trying too hard.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I couldn't care less right now....its November.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I'm good with that, Thanksgiving on is when i like to see winter start up, With everything that's happened in the last 10 weeks for me, And having to liquidate my parents estate, Have not had much time for much of anything really, Hunting was placed on the back burner this year so if we have no snow for hunting season which ends on the 25th, I'm fine with it.

You lost your folks in that?

Wow, no words....so sorry, Jeff.

[Great Snow 1717]

28 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

no matter how much he gets, his grass will be so long that you will be able to see it over the snow

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

So what was T Giving 1950…a screaming So’Easter? 

Cutter.  Pittsburgh INT AP:

1950-11-24	41	11	26.0	-13.7	39	0	1.54	14.0	10
1950-11-25	23	7	15.0	-24.4	50	0	1.10	10.1	20
1950-11-26	23	9	16.0	-23.1	49	0	0.33	3.3	22
1950-11-27	29	16	22.5	-16.3	42	0	0.16	1.7	17

NYC:
11/24/1950   53   38   45.5   0.1    19   0    0     0   0
11/25/1950   59   36   47.5   2.5    17   0   1.59  0   0
11/26/1950   41   28   34.5  -10.2  30  0    T     0   0
11/27/1950   40   32   29     -8.4   29   0   0     0   0

[WinterWolf]

45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Trying too hard.

Lol….scooter always trying to stir the pot, trying to dump in Weenies cheerios. 

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Cutter.  Pittsburgh INT AP:

1950-11-24	41	11	26.0	-13.7	39	0	1.54	14.0	10
1950-11-25	23	7	15.0	-24.4	50	0	1.10	10.1	20
1950-11-26	23	9	16.0	-23.1	49	0	0.33	3.3	22
1950-11-27	29	16	22.5	-16.3	42	0	0.16	1.7	17

Very different from Pittsburg INT AP

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol….scooter always trying to stir the pot, trying to dump I. Weenies cheerios. 

It's a legit thought I had lol. At least for next couple weeks.

[IrishRob17]

12 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Cutter.  Pittsburgh INT AP:

1950-11-24	41	11	26.0	-13.7	39	0	1.54	14.0	10
1950-11-25	23	7	15.0	-24.4	50	0	1.10	10.1	20
1950-11-26	23	9	16.0	-23.1	49	0	0.33	3.3	22
1950-11-27	29	16	22.5	-16.3	42	0	0.16	1.7	17

NYC:
11/24/1950   53   38   45.5   0.1    19   0    0     0   0
11/25/1950   59   36   47.5   2.5    17   0   1.59  0   0
11/26/1950   41   28   34.5  -10.2  30  0    T     0   0
11/27/1950   40   32   29     -8.4   29   0   0     0   0

I was rather impressed to see that Bear Mountain NY had a gust to 140mph. https://www.weather.gov/jkl/appalachianstorm1950

[tamarack]

The Apps Gale vies with 12/31/1962 (backside NW gales from the blizzard than ate BGR) for the strongest winds I've experienced.  That later date had temps 5/-8, pretty hefty WCI for New Jersey.

[WinterWolf]

40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's a legit thought I had lol. At least for next couple weeks.

No, you’re right it could certainly happen…but you get a rise out of doing that too. 

[ORH_wxman]

27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's a legit thought I had lol. At least for next couple weeks.

Most of our late November cold patterns are usually dryish anyway....there's a reason we hardly have any big snowfalls (>8") even in late November but they tend to ramp up quickly after the first few days of December historically....my hypothesis is that big cold in November is typically associated with very high geopotential gradients since the south is still pretty warm....so you crunch those early-season PV intrusions into a high height environment down south and it makes it hard to get anything good to amplify.

It's easier to get SWFEs and such....but November is pretty early in the season to get good snow from SWFEs here, so it's typically reserved for NNE.

Not sure how well that theory holds up with empirical research, but that's my anecdotal observation when we've had very cold November patterns.

[dryslot]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You lost your folks in that?

Wow, no words....so sorry, Jeff.

No, Not in the shootings, I lost 3 people that i bowled with over the years in the shootings though and a couple others were wounded, Dad passed back in Aug, Mom passed two days after the shootings on 10/27, Both in a 10 week period.

[weatherwiz]

22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Most of our late November cold patterns are usually dryish anyway....there's a reason we hardly have any big snowfalls (>8") even in late November but they tend to ramp up quickly after the first few days of December historically....my hypothesis is that big cold in November is typically associated with very high geopotential gradients since the south is still pretty warm....so you crunch those early-season PV intrusions into a high height environment down south and it makes it hard to get anything good to amplify.

It's easier to get SWFEs and such....but November is pretty early in the season to get good snow from SWFEs here, so it's typically reserved for NNE.

Not sure how well that theory holds up with empirical research, but that's my anecdotal observation when we've had very cold November patterns.

Was it Nov. 2018 when there was that sick early season SWEF or was the in December? I remember EWR getting crushed with heavy snow rates. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

No, Not in the shootings, I lost 3 people that i bowled with over the years in the shootings though and a couple others were wounded, Dad passed back in Aug, Mom passed two days after the shootings on 10/27, Both in a 10 week period

Still....so sorry, man.

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Most of our late November cold patterns are usually dryish anyway....there's a reason we hardly have any big snowfalls (>8") even in late November but they tend to ramp up quickly after the first few days of December historically....my hypothesis is that big cold in November is typically associated with very high geopotential gradients since the south is still pretty warm....so you crunch those early-season PV intrusions into a high height environment down south and it makes it hard to get anything good to amplify.

It's easier to get SWFEs and such....but November is pretty early in the season to get good snow from SWFEs here, so it's typically reserved for NNE.

Not sure how well that theory holds up with empirical research, but that's my anecdotal observation when we've had very cold November patterns.

Tippy's Miami-580dm rule lol

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Still....so sorry, man.

Thanks Ray.

[Typhoon Tip]

45 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Most of our late November cold patterns are usually dryish anyway....there's a reason we hardly have any big snowfalls (>8") even in late November but they tend to ramp up quickly after the first few days of December historically....my hypothesis is that big cold in November is typically associated with very high geopotential gradients since the south is still pretty warm....so you crunch those early-season PV intrusions into a high height environment down south and it makes it hard to get anything good to amplify.

It's easier to get SWFEs and such....but November is pretty early in the season to get good snow from SWFEs here, so it's typically reserved for NNE.

Not sure how well that theory holds up with empirical research, but that's my anecdotal observation when we've had very cold November patterns.

Spoke about that gradient aspect this morning. -EPOs tend to result in shearing/destructive interference early in seasons. Yup 

The only trouble is … it’s been an increasingly more evidenced deeper into winter cores, too

HC expansion … trading the northern HC boundary for increased velocity is how the HC converts to mechanical power in the flow. 

[WinterWolf]

17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Was it Nov. 2018 when there was that sick early season SWEF or was the in December? I remember EWR getting crushed with heavy snow rates. 

It was Nov 18 in November…we did great here. Great event. 

[Typhoon Tip]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Tippy's Miami-580dm rule lol

582

but sure. 

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It was Nov 18 in November…we did great here. Great event. 

I thought that was 2018. I was at school...it was alot of fun. Well wasn't fun for the commuters but I recall the snow coming in like a wall. 

[Allsnow]

@CoastalWx

 

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I don’t think we get interior region wide measurable snow until early December.  
I know that’s not a bold call, just what I see right now.  
I do think interior sees 10”+ before Santa comes. 

[dryslot]

The Dec 3-5th period has had some decent snowstorms over the years to kick off winter.

[CoastalWx]

32 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

@CoastalWx

 

 

Torch and well below normal snowfall is my guess. 

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Most of our late November cold patterns are usually dryish anyway....there's a reason we hardly have any big snowfalls (>8") even in late November but they tend to ramp up quickly after the first few days of December historically....my hypothesis is that big cold in November is typically associated with very high geopotential gradients since the south is still pretty warm....so you crunch those early-season PV intrusions into a high height environment down south and it makes it hard to get anything good to amplify.

It's easier to get SWFEs and such....but November is pretty early in the season to get good snow from SWFEs here, so it's typically reserved for NNE.

Not sure how well that theory holds up with empirical research, but that's my anecdotal observation when we've had very cold November patterns.

I'd like to try and squeeze something in before it warms up again. Something like an advisory anyways.

[ORH_wxman]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'd like to try and squeeze something in before it warms up again. Something like an advisory anyways.

Yeah the pattern is there for it...if we can hold the cold into the first week of December, I like our chances even more.

[weathafella]

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

No, Not in the shootings, I lost 3 people that i bowled with over the years in the shootings though and a couple others were wounded, Dad passed back in Aug, Mom passed two days after the shootings on 10/27, Both in a 10 week period.

That’s a very tough loss Jeff.  I wish you better days ahead.

[ineedsnow]

nice front ender on the 18z GFS

[ORH_wxman]

ULL that gives us the cold shot on Sunday/Monday/Tuesday stays more stubborn in SE Canada which holds that high tougher….thus produces the snowier solution for next Tues night.