Yesvember or November?

[WinterWolf]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The two week warm period shortened to 3 days this week and maybe 1 or 2 days next week depending on what happened Wednesday.

 

We aren't going wire to wire for December. It's gonna get mild for sure after first week for a time. How much TBD. Hopefully it changes before Christmas. Lots of changeable weather coming up.

Oh, I don’t think we will go wire to wire either, wasn’t meaning that, as I said and agree, we will mild up somewhat, which is usually the case anyway.   The calls of torch from 3-4 weeks out in time though are a little much.   As you said…duration and intensity TBD. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s def been the tendency to see the longer range trend colder as we get closer rather than the other way around in the past few weeks. There’s nothing that guarantees it continues, but all else equal, it’s better than the other way around. 

I thought that tweet I screenshotted you spoke volumes. We have been talking about how our source region is due to a colder season.

[brooklynwx99]

29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It was a torch

i mean, it was cold somewhere

[FXWX]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If we go by the MJO CCKW stuff that has dominated lately, we'll get milder after first week for a time before maybe switching later in 3rd week of December. Give or take on those time frames obviously.

Obviously specifics and timing issues will need refinement, but I agree with the general pattern progression you suggest...

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, FXWX said:

Obviously specifics and timing issues will need refinement, but I agree with the general pattern progression you suggest...

Wavelengths start changing in December so it may not be as simple. But right now, I don't think we are seeing the classic Nino coupling yet.

[bwt3650]

Just not feeling your winter vibes. Cold in November means jack shit frost. Last November was cold 

Yes..frigid start




.

[WinterWolf]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just not feeling your winter vibes. Cold in November means jack shit frost. Last November was cold 

It’s much different than last year already. No guarantees obviously, but this November is nothing at all like last year. Modeling is much different too. We will do better than last year in SNE.  Take that to the bank.  How much better to be determined.  

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It was a torch

It was BN I recall. Mauve that was one before 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lots of skim ice on ponds this morning driving through Sherborn/Dover in the way to Quincy. First time I noticed that much. 

If in November ponds can support a duck winter will feature lots of muck? Lol thy knickers saying 

[bwt3650]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s much different than last year already. No guarantees obviously, but this November is nothing at all like last year. Modeling is much different too. We will do better than last year in SNE.  Take that to the bank.  How much better to be determined.  

I don't remember once last year where warm periods didn't grow stronger from a week or two out and great patterns didn't  disappear as we got closer.  We got cold for a week in late November that Ginx called perfectly from a couple weeks out, but that seemed like the only cold period that stuck.  Betting warm over achieving was always a wining bet last year.  This month has been different  and was a reality check for those 384 torch map posters (a couple who have been missing for a while now).  I fully expect mild periods and to be called out when its 60 and raining in mid December, but NE isn't the new Mid Atlantic either.

[Ginx snewx]

13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s much different than last year already. No guarantees obviously, but this November is nothing at all like last year. Modeling is much different too. We will do better than last year in SNE.  Take that to the bank.  How much better to be determined.  

Last November wasn't cold Kev is shot

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Last November wasn't cold Kev is shot

It may have been 2021

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It may have been 2021

2021 was near normal. 2018 and 2019 were quite cold though. 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

2021 was near normal. 2018 and 2019 were quite cold though. 

There’s been a trend say over the last 10 years to have Nov be near or BN. Last year notwithstanding. My point is sure it’s great that there’s been frosts and freezes this month. But that doesn’t mean winter is going to good or better than last year. It could be sure.. but gut feelings don’t cut it  Some of these model animations and gut feeling posts are funny 

[bwt3650]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

2021 was near normal. 2018 and 2019 were quite cold though. 

2018-2019 was phenomenal at for NNE if i remember?

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s been a trend say over the last 10 years to have Nov be near or BN. Last year notwithstanding. My point is sure it’s great that there’s been frosts and freezes this month. But that doesn’t mean winter is going to good or better than last year. It could be sure.. but gut feelings don’t cut it 

Not better than last year??    

[NorEastermass128]

Didn’t we have a week of 70s last November?

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Didn’t we have a week of 70s last November?

Yep

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Reading about that 11/15/67 event kinda gives me 12/13/07 reverberations....

One of my favorite winters. 10 years old remembered well. Lots of early ice skating and sledding. Definitely a East of river winter. Cold as heck. Feb was pretty dry but like minus 8. Great winter for a kid to learn to ski. My first year of 50

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

What a weird event. Maybe a late bloomer or SWFE type deal? you don't see ACK beating interior CT often in mid November.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s been a trend say over the last 10 years to have Nov be near or BN. Last year notwithstanding. My point is sure it’s great that there’s been frosts and freezes this month. But that doesn’t mean winter is going to good or better than last year. It could be sure.. but gut feelings don’t cut it  Some of these model animations and gut feeling posts are funny 

I was only commenting on it because these gut feelings are in accordance with the novel that I just wrote based upon months of research.

[dryslot]

11 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Didn’t we have a week of 70s last November?

And is not happening this November.

[NorEastermass128]

This November reminds me of classic Novembers of yore. Chilly and wet on the coast. Snow showing up for the interior and picnic tables. The step down transition month. 

[radarman]

37 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

2018-2019 was phenomenal at for NNE if i remember?

incredible... best ever...

I believe Mt Ellen had something like 90" for Novie.  And even further south, Magic was 100% open with 3-4' of pow by 11/29.

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i mean, it was cold somewhere

Well Kev ... There you have it..... It was Cold....... But not over this side of the US...lol

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It was BN I recall. Mauve that was one before 

Insert foot in mouth after falling into the hole that was dug.....lol

It's all good ( just jk )

I think we all are on the same page and are looking for some true Winter time action! Optimistic here!!

[weatherwiz]

That is one deep trough on the GFS for Thanksgiving week...and it probably still isn't done amplifying given the jet streak is only beginning to round the base of it lol

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

That is one deep trough on the GFS for Thanksgiving week...and it probably still isn't done amplifying given the jet streak is only beginning to round the base of it lol

Going to go right up your fanny.

[WinterWolf]

58 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Didn’t we have a week of 70s last November?

Reached 81 last early November here.

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s been a trend say over the last 10 years to have Nov be near or BN. Last year notwithstanding. My point is sure it’s great that there’s been frosts and freezes this month. But that doesn’t mean winter is going to good or better than last year. It could be sure.. but gut feelings don’t cut it  Some of these model animations and gut feeling posts are funny 

But it’s your gut telling you it’s not gonna be a good winter…you say you’re not feeling g it. Sane as us saying we are.  
 

It’s a different set up and year already…you can see it. Sure, we’ll mild up, and rain at times. But it’s got a different vibe. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Going to go right up your fanny.

Regardless of track and evolution, I think it's fair to say that period of going to elicit a pretty significant pattern change across the CONUS. Whether it is transient or something that holds for a bit we'll see as the signals are a bit conflicting but if that pattern can hold we certainly should have some winter threats. Probably favored more as the pattern breaks down a bit.