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Yesvember or November?


Go Kart Mozart
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Classic telecon technique says to watch that Nov 22-23rd for more amplitude, but there are flow idiosyncrasies acting as impediments.  Namely ...to much speed in the flow, as has been a recurring theme in the model runs, is causing timing problems with phasing, as well some S/W momentum absorbing. The end result, it's tending to shear the wave interaction space from working it out.  The GFS in particular seems to be oscillating between overcoming these limitations on one run, then subsequently the next run slips back.

The 00z GFS to 06z GFS differences show that in the 500 mb evolution.  00z phasing about as much as it can given the screaming ripper pattern. But the 06z gives up and just bipasses.

The Euro's rendition is bit more pallid overall, anyway ... It appears it has less potency in the S/stream ejected down stream.

In both solutions, the western ridge isn't reconnecting into higher latitudes post the N and S/streams passing E. This tends to also limit the stream interaction in lieu of longitudinal wave morphology ( stretching W to E)

Meanwhile the N/stream down stream of an -EPO cold inject ( see the GGEM 850 mb!), is winding up into a very deep early season SPV.  Some of all this may be correctable due to this 'model magnifying' aspect - personal observation of model behavior they all share, which is to just be overly amplified with most of what they are handling in the range beyond D6's ...then they become less as they cross into the middle range.  Less SPV depth may actually allow more N-S to evolve and a cleaner phase - suppositional... But the upstream ridge would need to climb in latitude aft of these features coming east:  less SPV anomaly; more ridge west.

The baseline has a + d(PNA) taking place down wind in space and time of a -EPO regime onset: so long as that remains the case, the period of the 19th - 25th should be monitored for more amplitude.

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39 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

One aspect I've noticed since it turned colder in the first week of the month that's been different than the last ... several years really.  There's been more of these clear, calm hoar frost mornings.  

We've got it on the roof tops even.  But thick in the fields, and some clinging to  low shrubbery, with low angle corpuscular rays of the sun slicing through - it's been very aesthetic.  Anyway, the couple years prior, it seems we may have taken on too much wind when it got cold (perhaps).  This year seeing actual frost's return, and lots of it, on repeating mornings is interesting.

I was wondering if that had anything to do with the abundance of moisture due to the rain we've had and the fact that the ground is pretty moist.  Last year was so dry.

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11 minutes ago, mreaves said:

I was wondering if that had anything to do with the abundance of moisture due to the rain we've had and the fact that the ground is pretty moist.  Last year was so dry.

Yeah ..it's not a bad guess, either.  I tend to lean more on the calm nature to the winds this autumn.  Frost is usually DPs near freezing to begin with, and then radiating to where the cold squeezes out the DP into frost. But who knows if soil moisture is contributing somehow -sure

Either way, I've also noticed we haven't really had a synoptic wind event ... of any echelon, really. Whether just a gusty day at NE regional scales, Advisory/headline or not.  The wind seems to not be blowing .. interesting.

But, low wind brings marginal radiator nights into higher proficiency, and then the temp settles off to the DP and viola.   Last year might have been more wind, and higher DPs at night.  Not sure. Brian seems to have a records to that detail - I think the climate sheets at NWS Boston might help but they only have 4 sites.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

We'll be torching in December for a time. 

We don’t know that just yet…but some milder weather is likely, which is very common. 
 

We thought a couple weeks ago that November was going to be warm….that has not happened as many thought and said in late October.   And this needs to be admitted to by the torch sayers about November. 

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

We don’t know that just yet…but some milder weather is likely, which is very common. 
 

We thought a couple weeks ago that November was going to be warm….that has not happened as many thought and said in late October.   And this needs to be admitted to by the torch sayers about November. 

The two week warm period shortened to 3 days this week and maybe 1 or 2 days next week depending on what happened Wednesday.

 

We aren't going wire to wire for December. It's gonna get mild for sure after first week for a time. How much TBD. Hopefully it changes before Christmas. Lots of changeable weather coming up.

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The two week warm period shortened to 3 days this week and maybe 1 or 2 days next week depending on what happened Wednesday.

 

We aren't going wire to wire for December. It's gonna get mild for sure after first week for a time. How much TBD. Hopefully it changes before Christmas. Lots of changeable weather coming up.

I would watch for a big storm around the holidays, interior focus.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would watch for a big storm around the holidays, interior focus.

If we go by the MJO CCKW stuff that has dominated lately, we'll get milder after first week for a time before maybe switching later in 3rd week of December. Give or take on those time frames obviously.

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There’s def been the tendency to see the longer range trend colder as we get closer rather than the other way around in the past few weeks. There’s nothing that guarantees it continues, but all else equal, it’s better than the other way around. 

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