CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 Ray approved 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro op cuts, but the sensible outcome is the same. Who cares. That’s for Wednesday. I agree.. just pointing that out. It's rain regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 Just now, Snowcrazed71 said: I agree.. just pointing that out. It's rain regardless. I know, was just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 Truro buried and a dusting in Tolland. Love to see it. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 The torch train is slowly unloading this morning. Maybe winter is tbd and not cancelled yet? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 Classic telecon technique says to watch that Nov 22-23rd for more amplitude, but there are flow idiosyncrasies acting as impediments. Namely ...to much speed in the flow, as has been a recurring theme in the model runs, is causing timing problems with phasing, as well some S/W momentum absorbing. The end result, it's tending to shear the wave interaction space from working it out. The GFS in particular seems to be oscillating between overcoming these limitations on one run, then subsequently the next run slips back. The 00z GFS to 06z GFS differences show that in the 500 mb evolution. 00z phasing about as much as it can given the screaming ripper pattern. But the 06z gives up and just bipasses. The Euro's rendition is bit more pallid overall, anyway ... It appears it has less potency in the S/stream ejected down stream. In both solutions, the western ridge isn't reconnecting into higher latitudes post the N and S/streams passing E. This tends to also limit the stream interaction in lieu of longitudinal wave morphology ( stretching W to E) Meanwhile the N/stream down stream of an -EPO cold inject ( see the GGEM 850 mb!), is winding up into a very deep early season SPV. Some of all this may be correctable due to this 'model magnifying' aspect - personal observation of model behavior they all share, which is to just be overly amplified with most of what they are handling in the range beyond D6's ...then they become less as they cross into the middle range. Less SPV depth may actually allow more N-S to evolve and a cleaner phase - suppositional... But the upstream ridge would need to climb in latitude aft of these features coming east: less SPV anomaly; more ridge west. The baseline has a + d(PNA) taking place down wind in space and time of a -EPO regime onset: so long as that remains the case, the period of the 19th - 25th should be monitored for more amplitude. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 39 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: One aspect I've noticed since it turned colder in the first week of the month that's been different than the last ... several years really. There's been more of these clear, calm hoar frost mornings. We've got it on the roof tops even. But thick in the fields, and some clinging to low shrubbery, with low angle corpuscular rays of the sun slicing through - it's been very aesthetic. Anyway, the couple years prior, it seems we may have taken on too much wind when it got cold (perhaps). This year seeing actual frost's return, and lots of it, on repeating mornings is interesting. I was wondering if that had anything to do with the abundance of moisture due to the rain we've had and the fact that the ground is pretty moist. Last year was so dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 11 minutes ago, mreaves said: I was wondering if that had anything to do with the abundance of moisture due to the rain we've had and the fact that the ground is pretty moist. Last year was so dry. Yeah ..it's not a bad guess, either. I tend to lean more on the calm nature to the winds this autumn. Frost is usually DPs near freezing to begin with, and then radiating to where the cold squeezes out the DP into frost. But who knows if soil moisture is contributing somehow -sure Either way, I've also noticed we haven't really had a synoptic wind event ... of any echelon, really. Whether just a gusty day at NE regional scales, Advisory/headline or not. The wind seems to not be blowing .. interesting. But, low wind brings marginal radiator nights into higher proficiency, and then the temp settles off to the DP and viola. Last year might have been more wind, and higher DPs at night. Not sure. Brian seems to have a records to that detail - I think the climate sheets at NWS Boston might help but they only have 4 sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 Lots of skim ice on ponds this morning driving through Sherborn/Dover in the way to Quincy. First time I noticed that much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Lots of skim ice on ponds this morning driving through Sherborn/Dover in the way to Quincy. First time I noticed that much. Yeah, we got that two nights ago with that 18 spot we put up - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Lots of skim ice on ponds this morning driving through Sherborn/Dover in the way to Quincy. First time I noticed that much. Noticed a little here as well this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 47 minutes ago, bwt3650 said: The torch train is slowly unloading this morning. Maybe winter is tbd and not cancelled yet? We tried to tell ‘em…but they wouldn’t listen. Torch Torch Torch is all some know, and push. Sad really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: We tried to tell ‘em…but they wouldn’t listen. Torch Torch Torch is all some know, and push. Sad really. We'll be torching in December for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: We'll be torching in December for a time. We don’t know that just yet…but some milder weather is likely, which is very common. We thought a couple weeks ago that November was going to be warm….that has not happened as many thought and said in late October. And this needs to be admitted to by the torch sayers about November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: We don’t know that just yet…but some milder weather is likely, which is very common. We thought a couple weeks ago that November was going to be warm….that has not happened as many thought and said in late October. And this needs to be admitted to by the torch sayers about November. The two week warm period shortened to 3 days this week and maybe 1 or 2 days next week depending on what happened Wednesday. We aren't going wire to wire for December. It's gonna get mild for sure after first week for a time. How much TBD. Hopefully it changes before Christmas. Lots of changeable weather coming up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Ray approved Wow, I had never heard of that event before.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 December should still get warm, but this fall seems "different"......I am really optimistic about this season. Weenie ob is that wintery outcomes seem primed to overachieve. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah, we got that two nights ago with that 18 spot we put up - This almost has a '95 vibe to it....get one measurable snow event before December closes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We'll be torching in December for a time. My thoughts on December have always been that the warm stretches will outweigh the cold, but no one will mistake this for December 2015 or even 2014...it will snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Truro buried and a dusting in Tolland. Love to see it. Notice how quiet he has gotten? Heavy, heavy discomfort. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The two week warm period shortened to 3 days this week and maybe 1 or 2 days next week depending on what happened Wednesday. We aren't going wire to wire for December. It's gonna get mild for sure after first week for a time. How much TBD. Hopefully it changes before Christmas. Lots of changeable weather coming up. I would watch for a big storm around the holidays, interior focus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I would watch for a big storm around the holidays, interior focus. If we go by the MJO CCKW stuff that has dominated lately, we'll get milder after first week for a time before maybe switching later in 3rd week of December. Give or take on those time frames obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: If we go by the MJO CCKW stuff that has dominated lately, we'll get milder after first week for a time before maybe switching later in 3rd week of December. Give or take on those time frames obviously. That aligns with my thoughts from the novel. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 Reading about that 11/15/67 event kinda gives me 12/13/07 reverberations.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Notice how quiet he has gotten? Heavy, heavy discomfort. Just not feeling your winter vibes. Cold in November means jack shit frost. Last November was cold 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Reading about that 11/15/67 event kinda gives me 12/13/07 reverberations.... What a weird event. Maybe a late bloomer or SWFE type deal? you don't see ACK beating interior CT often in mid November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 There’s def been the tendency to see the longer range trend colder as we get closer rather than the other way around in the past few weeks. There’s nothing that guarantees it continues, but all else equal, it’s better than the other way around. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Just not feeling your winter vibes. Cold in November means jack shit frost. Last November was cold It was a torch 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just not feeling your winter vibes. Cold in November means jack shit frost. Last November was cold D-FENCE! D-FENCE! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What a weird event. Maybe a late bloomer or SWFE type deal? you don't see ACK beating interior CT often in mid November. Yea, it must have been a SWFE....as was 2007. But I agree that one tried to redevelop late, which is what enhanced my area into S NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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