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Yesvember or November?

Go Kart Mozart

By Go Kart Mozart,
in New England

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Cyclone-68

Cyclone-68

Posted
Posted
54 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Going down to Florida for a week Dec 23...I have to remember to be on the look out for some severe threats down there between the 23-30. Hopefully a moderate risk derecho event. I'm just hoping the big one doesn't happen up here that week but it probably will. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Kissimmee_tornado_outbreak

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
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3 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Kissimmee_tornado_outbreak

I think I remember that event (obviously from watching TWC). IIRC that was a very active winter across the Southeast in terms of severe weather/tornadoes with several big outbreaks. Maybe even one in the mid-Atlantic?

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I think I remember that event (obviously from watching TWC). IIRC that was a very active winter across the Southeast in terms of severe weather/tornadoes with several big outbreaks. Maybe even one in the mid-Atlantic?

That large tornado just missed where my Grandparents had a house in the SW part of Orlando. Near Sea World.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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37 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS def out of step with the OP’s milder Tday weekend look. 
 

Regardless, still looks quite cold the week after Tday so maybe a chance to sneak in an event there. 

GEFS really have a spectacularly low AAM flow structure.  I mean if that's all there was you'd be convinced of a major somewhere along or east of 90W

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FXWX

FXWX

Posted
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2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Obviously long-range isn't my thing, but I've spent a great deal of time the last year really digging into it more and looking at composites for all EL Nino events but I as well think there is too much weight being thrown around on a warm Dec just because it "fits" the mold of EL Nino or stronger events. Not every single EL Nino event (regardless of strength) has produced this. I think people get too caught up in just looking at general composites. Certainly a general composite is going to give you a mean (although there is always a risk that mean can be skewed) but you have to run each individual (month, season, etc) against the mean and when differences arise, explore what caused those differences. 

In reality Wiz, long range is not anybody's thing...  Lots of folks and organizations play with it, and all the more power to them; I admire the grit and determination.  But the skill level in terms of truly actionable outcomes is still very poor.  That does not mean we should stop trying, but folks have to remain realistic about its value.  Chatted with Walt Drag about it the other day and like me, he believes there is a ton of room for improvement in the day 10 to day 15 range that would bring lots of value to the forecasting community.   Getting much improved skill scores to the 10-to-20-day period is where a lot of effort should be directed...  

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That large tornado just missed where my Grandparents had a house in the SW part of Orlando. Near Sea World.

Yikes...that is pretty frightening. 

1 minute ago, FXWX said:

In reality Wiz, long range is not anybody's thing...  Lots of folks and organizations play with it, and all the more power to them; I admire the grit and determination.  But the skill level in terms of truly actionable outcomes is still very poor.  That does not mean we should stop trying, but folks have to remain realistic about its value.  Chatted with Walt Drag about it the other day and like me, he believes there is a ton of room for improvement in the day 10 to day 15 range that would bring lots of value to the forecasting community.   Getting much improved skill scores to the 10-to-20-day period is where a lot of effort should be directed...  

Great post, can't disagree with this at all. Weather forecasting has become a very hot commodity with a rapidly growing private sector. As skills have improved with short-term forecasting the envelope has certainly expanded to dig deeper and further out. You're absolutely right though, there has to be a realistic approach and understanding about its value. From what I see with a lot of long-range/seasonal stuff out there (though this may not apply to vendors who provide this stuff for clients) the communication aspect needs to be significantly improved. Often times on social media you'll see the posts looking at the D10+ day progs and it comes across as if that should be the expectation. Now most in the field (whether its professionals or hobbyists) probably understand that is not the case - but the issue is this type of information gets to the general public who don't know how to understand or interpret this information and all hell breaks lose (cue the hype machines). 

Long range/seasonal forecasting is something I've always been very intrigued in and I'm gad I've finally been able to get time to dabble into it this past year. I've found that through research of historical patterns, ENSO, teleconnections that I even feel like it's positively impacted my short/medium range forecasting. 

There are also negatives with this. There are so many companies emerging who "promise" they have all these tools and can pinpoint things down to city level so many days and week out and wow people with pretty graphics and cute colors and essentially suck people in and just steal their money. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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Just now, Layman said:

Every time a weekly's run a Bitcoin mints its wings?

I don't see any value running it daily. It's not like the euro or gfs op which is used for operational decisions in the short term. No energy trader, someone in Ag or any industry like that will  use it on a daily basis when looking weeks ahead. 

 

Might make a nice data lake for AI to take over the the world though. 

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