Yesvember or November?

[WinterWolf]

28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I've been out of the long range loop, so I try to ask around to gather thoughts. One common thing told to me....."ECMWF more overrated than Josh Allen."  And I quote lol. 

Ya it’s fallen from grace big time…but When we say ECMWF, do we also mean the Eiro ensembles(EPS) as well? 

[WinterWolf]

50 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

2012-13 and 2014-15 both had weak starts to the winter with a lot of snow after mid-January. 
 

Though Dec 2012 had some interior snow events. 

So did November that year…a nice event in November that year shortly after Election Day in ‘12. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya it’s fallen from grace big time…but When we say ECMWF, do we also mean the Eiro ensembles(EPS) as well? 

ECMWF, EPS, weeklies etc.  I think the seasonal stuff is understood as being not concrete no matter if it's CFS, Euro Seasonal etc.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

ECMWF, EPS, weeklies etc.  I think the seasonal stuff is understood as being not concrete no matter if it's CFS, Euro Seasonal etc.

Thanks.
Agreed. 

[Sn0waddict]

Pretty gusty out on the cape if the GFS is right.

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Thanks.
Agreed. 

It doesn't mean toss them. Just buyer beware. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It doesn't mean toss them. Just buyer beware. 

Oh no..completely understood.  

[SnoSki14]

15 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Pretty gusty out on the cape if the GFS is right.

On a lonely island by itself. 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

On a lonely island by itself. 

Pretty much solely tied into phasing. Phasing situations drive me nuts because so many put too much stock into SLP and QPF charts. If there's a phase there will be impact and if there is no phase there will be minimal to even no impact. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Pretty much solely tied into phasing. Phasing situations drive me nuts because so many put too much stock into SLP and QPF charts. If there's a phase there will be impact and if there is no phase there will be minimal to even no impact. 

It is. But even the euro has a tropical-like meso low east of the surface low. So some funny business may happen.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It is. But even the euro has a tropical-like meso low east of the surface low. So some funny business may happen.

yup...these meso-low signals often throw wrenches into the mix

[dryslot]

12z Euro has a cutter pre turkey day.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

12z Euro has a cutter pre turkey day.

Overly amped bias of the Euro at work…? 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Overly amped bias of the Euro at work…? 

GFS was warm too. Probably closer to correct. Difference is GFS has a cold blast, euro is seasonal to maybe slight AN for T-Day.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS was warm too. Probably closer to correct. Difference is GFS has a cold blast, euro is seasonal to maybe slight AN for T-Day.

GFS gets that PV lobe much farther south while the Euro keeps it confined much farther north

[weatherwiz]

Going down to Florida for a week Dec 23...I have to remember to be on the look out for some severe threats down there between the 23-30. Hopefully a moderate risk derecho event. I'm just hoping the big one doesn't happen up here that week but it probably will. 

[dryslot]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Going down to Florida for a week Dec 23...I have to remember to be on the look out for some severe threats down there between the 23-30. Hopefully a moderate risk derecho event. I'm just hoping the big one doesn't happen up here that week but it probably will. 

It will probably be just like the one you may see in florida up here.

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

I was out hunting that afternoon after dinner, It was brutal that day.

Crazy man! 
(If I were 30 years younger, I would've been equally crazy.)

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

2012-13 and 2014-15 both had weak starts to the winter with a lot of snow after mid-January. 
 

Though Dec 2012 had some interior snow events. 

We had 30" of interior snows in 12/13, though no double-digit storms.  Though we had last-minute dodges of several storms in 14-15, the pre-Thanksgiving event dropped 13" here, by far the biggest November snowfall I've seen. 
(2nd place is 8.5" in 1974 at BGR, 3rd is 8" in 1968 while in NNJ, surprisingly no top-3s in Fort Kent.  A year after moving south from Fort Kent, they had 21" a few days before T-Day.)

[ORH_wxman]

EPS def out of step with the OP’s milder Tday weekend look. 
 

Regardless, still looks quite cold the week after Tday so maybe a chance to sneak in an event there. 

[weathafella]

I think it was mentioned in the El Niño thread on the main board euro weeklies are now issued daily vs Monday and Thursday in the past.  

[brooklynwx99]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS def out of step with the OP’s milder Tday weekend look. 
 

Regardless, still looks quite cold the week after Tday so maybe a chance to sneak in an event there. 

we take the anomalous -EPO

[weatherwiz]

I'm sure those in Anchorage may surely welcome that

[CoastalWx]

We take EPS.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm sure those in Anchorage may surely welcome that

What a run there on there.

[dryslot]

We EPS, Nice early start to winter there.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, dryslot said:

What a run there on there.

For sure. 

For those like correlating anything and everything to New England snowfall, is there any correlation between ANC getting smoked and us  

[OceanStWx]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We take EPS.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The thought crossed my mind.   

[dryslot]

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

For sure. 

For those like correlating anything and everything to New England snowfall, is there any correlation between ANC getting smoked and us  

Unfortunately, No, I'd rather see HP anchored over there..........