Yesvember or November?

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

That Christmas 2015 was the worst. Thank God for beer.

Yeah was too warm to even light a fire...crazy.   Somehow I don't think that was a one off I'd bet we see something like that again....

[CoastalWx]

Maybe Fisher does. He likes the tight polos.

[dryslot]

Roasting some of dendrites chestnuts over an open fire with jack frost nipping at your ass.

[dendrite]

Warm storms followed by cold/dry...let's get that pattern in Jan for Ray.

[NorEastermass128]

All this talk of violence and it’s for a grazing, decaying TC?  

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said:

All this talk of violence and it’s for a grazing, decaying TC?  

LOL and a non event for anyone west of the track (which is most people here)

[tamarack]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That Christmas 2015 was the worst. Thank God for beer.

2020 was worse here, 2.5" rain and temp 28° AN, tallest AN day we've had here, 1° more than 3/22/12.

Meh, get the front through and have a nice cold T-Day. 

As long as it's not T-Day 2018 cold, afternoon max near 10° with 40 mph gusts.

[WinterWolf]

14 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

All this talk of violence and it’s for a grazing, decaying TC?  

Lol that’s what happens when we haven’t had any weather in a while…we grasp at anything that looks remotely exciting.  

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

All this talk of violence and it’s for a grazing, decaying TC?  

An expanding wind field on the west side. 

It's just some fun hyperbole. Everyone relax. 

[UnitedWx]

58 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Not within the last decade, but 06-07 fits that description.  The period Nov 8 thru Jan 13 (67 days) had only 11.0" snow and temps 8.0° AN.  Jan 14 thru April 17 (94 days) brought another 84.3" with temps 5.3° BN.  Result was a slightly AN snow season, and the only time I expect to see a storm (Patriot's Day) produce 5" snow and 5" rain.
03-04 was just the opposite, with the storms of Dec 6-7 and 14-15 totaling 37.2", which was 51% of the winter's snowfall.

Yesterday's 34/14 was the first double-digit BN day since the nasty cold rain of June 4.  Cloudy today but whatever might be falling is getting eaten by the dry air.

Ooooiiiii time flies! 06-07 looks right according to my snowplowing records. Man did I lurk here forever before joining!

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol that’s what happens when we haven’t had any weather in a while…we grasp at anything that looks remotely exciting.  

True-the storms of October have gone poof...I've had less than .25 of precip here since 10/28

[UnitedWx]

29 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Roasting some of dendrites chestnuts over an open fire with jack frost nipping at your ass.

The way we used to sing it was "your nuts roasting on an open fire, Jack Frost nipping at your nads" ... i forget the rest

[dryslot]

11 minutes ago, tamarack said:

2020 was worse here, 2.5" rain and temp 28° AN, tallest AN day we've had here, 1° more than 3/22/12.

Meh, get the front through and have a nice cold T-Day. 

As long as it's not T-Day 2018 cold, afternoon max near 10° with 40 mph gusts.

I was out hunting that afternoon after dinner, It was brutal that day.

[WinterWolf]

At least there is some weather it seems to track going forward…we take. 

[WxWatcher007]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

An expanding wind field on the west side. 

It's just some fun hyperbole. Everyone relax. 

If it’s not a cat 3 running from New Haven to Quebec City expect audible yawns from the crowd here. 

Don't worry though we’ll write up 75 pages of breathless excitement, anxiety, and melts for a 1-3” clipper in early December. 

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

If it’s not a cat 3 running from New Haven to Quebec City expect audible yawns from the crowd here. 

Don't worry though we’ll write up 75 pages of breathless excitement, anxiety, and melts for a 1-3” clipper in early December. 

That's when the anger and real violence will appear

[MJOatleast7]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Pretty decent warm core. +15C or so at 850

Meh...typical July values.

[Typhoon Tip]

This is fun eye-candy the following week

[Snowcrazed71]

22 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol that’s what happens when we haven’t had any weather in a while…we grasp at anything that looks remotely exciting.  

You know Kev is probably starting to have convulsions ( he flips on a dime) now that we have some action. He might need to get the hand lotion out!! Lol

[ORH_wxman]

24 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Ooooiiiii time flies! 06-07 looks right according to my snowplowing records. Man did I lurk here forever before joining!

2012-13 and 2014-15 both had weak starts to the winter with a lot of snow after mid-January. 
 

Though Dec 2012 had some interior snow events. 

[WxWatcher007]

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That's when the anger and real violence will appear

After last season in SNE, the first storm that fails at short range will require governors to call in the national guard. 

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

2012-13 and 2014-15 both had weak starts to the winter with a lot of snow after mid-January. 
 

Though Dec 2012 had some interior snow events. 

We’ve had some very good second half/backloaded winters in the last decade, those two standing above the others.  I still don’t really expect things to go here in earnest until after mid-January, but if we can get to near normal Jan 15-Mar 15 that’s a win. 

[CoastalWx]

One thing brought up by the seasonal community is all the guidance seems to be a bit too biased (at least right now) in insisting on a blow torch CONUS. Could be ENSO related on the seasonal guidance (think CFS and euro weeklies).

 

What has worked well is timing of features like CCKWs. This is why there was mention of a window late month into early December and it seems to be working out so far. I don't know if all vendors had this, but a good friend of mine brought this up to me. 

 

If one assumes this continues to work, then we have a warm mid month maybe starting second week of December, and then flips cooler again maybe later in 3rd week of month and beyond. 

 

The general theme is to take these weekly forecasts with a grain of dally more-so than normal. 

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

One thing brought up by the seasonal community is all the guidance seems to be a bit too biased (at least right now) in insisting on a blow torch CONUS. Could be ENSO related on the seasonal guidance (think CFS and euro weeklies).

 

What has worked well is timing of features like CCKWs. This is why there was mention of a window late month into early December and it seems to be working out so far. I don't know if all vendors had this, but a good friend of mine brought this up to me. 

 

If one assumes this continues to work, then we have a warm mid month maybe starting second week of December, and then flips cooler again maybe later in 3rd week of month and beyond. 

 

The general theme is to take these weekly forecasts with a grain of dally more-so than normal. 

Great points. I have been doing just that..grain of salt for sure, especially more than 10-12 days out. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Great points. I have been doing just that..grain of salt for sure, especially more than 10-12 days out. 

Yeah I've been out of the long range loop, so I try to ask around to gather thoughts. One common thing told to me....."ECMWF more overrated than Josh Allen."  And I quote lol. 

[OceanStWx]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

2012-13 and 2014-15 both had weak starts to the winter with a lot of snow after mid-January. 
 

Though Dec 2012 had some interior snow events. 

Lots of toasters being moved to the vicinity of the bathtub in January 2015. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

Lots of toasters being moved to the vicinity of the bathtub in January 2015. 

I was there. I lost it when Ginx was trying to make chicken salad out of the chicken shit pattern we had. He was talking about sledding with kids on 2" of snow as they went to the ER from head trauma. 

[CoastalWx]

And don't forget the "Not gonna happen James.."  to the bowling ball s/w that somehow eventually found a way to amplify right after the 1/24 snowfall.  RIP James.

[weatherwiz]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

One thing brought up by the seasonal community is all the guidance seems to be a bit too biased (at least right now) in insisting on a blow torch CONUS. Could be ENSO related on the seasonal guidance (think CFS and euro weeklies).

 

What has worked well is timing of features like CCKWs. This is why there was mention of a window late month into early December and it seems to be working out so far. I don't know if all vendors had this, but a good friend of mine brought this up to me. 

 

If one assumes this continues to work, then we have a warm mid month maybe starting second week of December, and then flips cooler again maybe later in 3rd week of month and beyond. 

 

The general theme is to take these weekly forecasts with a grain of dally more-so than normal. 

Obviously long-range isn't my thing, but I've spent a great deal of time the last year really digging into it more and looking at composites for all EL Nino events but I as well think there is too much weight being thrown around on a warm Dec just because it "fits" the mold of EL Nino or stronger events. Not every single EL Nino event (regardless of strength) has produced this. I think people get too caught up in just looking at general composites. Certainly a general composite is going to give you a mean (although there is always a risk that mean can be skewed) but you have to run each individual (month, season, etc) against the mean and when differences arise, explore what caused those differences. 

[NEPASnow]

The SSTA would suggest a strong east-based El Nino but the forcing mechanisms would suggest a weak to moderate west-based El Nino with all the tropical convection firing along the dateline.  Throw in the models showing a possible 3-lobed destruction of the PV by the end of November and we could be rocking and rolling till March with the atmosphere feeding back on itself with a -NAO and storms and cold. That sounds good to me

[WinterWolf]

23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

And don't forget the "Not gonna happen James.."  to the bowling ball s/w that somehow eventually found a way to amplify right after the 1/24 snowfall.  RIP James.

Which became your January blizzard which kicked off the monster 15 season at the end of January…especially for eastern areas.