Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: Violence approaches on the GFS. Wow. It’s been there more or less the last several days. Please please let this happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 Probably even a pretty solid snow event for the ski areas in northern VT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 7 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said: Looks like a brief window for a bit of early season fun from just after Thanksgiving into the first couple days of December. Obviously a lot needs to line up, but with a -EPO and now a +PNA (which was a big reversal yesterday), we may get some BN anomalies for a time coupled with the active STJ. The driver of this is a major reversal in global wind to the negative phase, which will actually put us in a La Nina esque regime for a time, similar to what we saw around Halloween. My hunch is this is temporary, maybe a few days then we return to a torch pattern through the middle of the month. Ya..Thanksgiving was supposed to be a torch too….lol. Everything’s a torch I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s been there more or less the last several days. Please please let this happen Noel 2007? LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 Pretty decent warm core. +15C or so at 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 To bad there's not any cold air available on the 12z GFS for 11/18, That would be a cocka of a winter event in eastern areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: To bad there's not any cold air available on the 12z GFS for 11/14, That would be a cocka of a winter event in eastern areas. You mean 11/18 right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: You mean 11/18 right? Yup, Typo, Saturday 11/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 We hurricane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 Just now, ineedsnow said: We hurricane! We snooze 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 Just now, dendrite said: We snooze You snooze you lose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 Tight wound system doesn't get to far to the west verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 18 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: If this were even 4-6 weeks later this would be some big time excitement in terms of tracking That’s kind of how Feb 2013 looked aloft. The northern stream was a bit more receptive, but the overall trough with southern stream vort out ahead looked quite similar. It’s a very good look in mid winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 The one to watch is the one around 22/23rd, This run of the 12z GFS will have it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 Just now, ORH_wxman said: That’s kind of how Feb 2013 looked aloft. The northern stream was a bit more receptive, but the overall trough with southern stream vort out ahead looked quite similar. It’s a very good look in mid winter. Looking at this sends chills down my spine I feel like it's been a while since we've tracked such a look during the winter. There are sizable differences though with the evolution of that trough digging into and progressing across the Ohio Valley later this week so right now anything is on the table. The GFS seems a bit more consistent though and has trended in a direction of a phasing scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 Just now, dryslot said: The one to watch is the one around 22/23rd, This run of the 12z GFS will have it. Looks warm this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks warm this run. Could use your shitstreak, The trough is going negative rather soon, Looks to run inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 Just now, dryslot said: Could use your shitstreak, The trough is going negative rather soon. Meh, get the front through and have a nice cold T-Day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Meh, get the front through and have a nice cold T-Day. Why does it need to be cold on Thanskgiving? I'd rather see it warmer for watching HS football or taking a walk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Meh, get the front through and have a nice cold T-Day. Thanksgiving at the picnic tables. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 Good time to post this with the models showing some tropical/hybrid potential. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 I rather like the 12z GFS oper. trend re TG week... That latter event is very near to being serious phase contender. As far as cold and getting snow ... we've had some snows in Oct and Novs since 2000, enough so that people might be conditioned to think it's not hard and we're somehow getting screwed if it doesn't work out. Or not - But from my chair I'm not 'looking forward' to jack shit prior to about Dec 10 (give or take) for N of the NYC just the same. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 Turkey day still has some snow for the early favored areas on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 Certainly can't be a bad thing to see some PV displacement into our side of the hemisphere this early. I suspect this is something we'll see several times moving later into Dec and into Jan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: Why does it need to be cold on Thanskgiving? I'd rather see it warmer for watching HS football or taking a walk. Because it's nice to get into the Holiday Spirit. Nobody wants a Thanksgiving sweating balls off and dodging mosquitoes. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 That Christmas 2015 was the worst. Thank God for beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Because it's nice to get into the Holiday Spirit. Nobody wants a Thanksgiving sweating balls off and dodging mosquitoes. Yup .. with food cooking , people in houses etc.. you want it frigid out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Because it's nice to get into the Holiday Spirit. Nobody wants a Thanksgiving sweating balls off and dodging mosquitoes. Macy's parade in winter clothing and flurries sets the seasonal tone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Because it's nice to get into the Holiday Spirit. Nobody wants a Thanksgiving sweating balls off and dodging mosquitoes. 40's and sun is good. Agree don't need 70 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Yup .. with food cooking , people in houses etc.. you want it frigid out I go outside. Maybe get a fire going etc. Nobody wants to come to the house in Birkenstocks and a short sleeve polo. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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