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Yesvember or November?


Go Kart Mozart
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7 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said:

Looks like a brief window for a bit of early season fun from just after Thanksgiving into the first couple days of December. Obviously a lot needs to line up, but with a -EPO and now a +PNA (which was a big reversal yesterday), we may get some BN anomalies for a time coupled with the active STJ. The driver of this is a major reversal in global wind to the negative phase, which will actually put us in a La Nina esque regime for a time, similar to what we saw around Halloween. My hunch is this is temporary, maybe a few days then we return to a torch pattern through the middle of the month. 

Ya..Thanksgiving was supposed to be a torch too….lol.
 

Everything’s a torch I guess. 

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18 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

If this were even 4-6 weeks later this would be some big time excitement in terms of tracking

image.thumb.png.158591598a92fb9e6f7d7bc562cbd237.png

That’s kind of how Feb 2013 looked aloft. The northern stream was a bit more receptive, but the overall trough with southern stream vort out ahead looked quite similar. It’s a very good look in mid winter. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

That’s kind of how Feb 2013 looked aloft. The northern stream was a bit more receptive, but the overall trough with southern stream vort out ahead looked quite similar. It’s a very good look in mid winter. 

Looking at this sends chills down my spine :lol: I feel like it's been a while since we've tracked such a look during the winter. 

There are sizable differences though with the evolution of that trough digging into and progressing across the Ohio Valley later this week so right now anything is on the table. The GFS seems a bit more consistent though and has trended in a direction of a phasing scenario. 

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I rather like the 12z GFS oper. trend re TG week...

That latter event is very near to being serious phase contender.  

As far as cold and getting snow ... we've had some snows in Oct and Novs since 2000, enough so that people might be conditioned to think it's not hard and we're somehow getting screwed if it doesn't work out.   Or not -     But from my chair I'm not 'looking forward' to jack shit prior to about Dec 10 (give or take) for N of the NYC just the same. 

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