Yesvember or November?

[metagraphica]

2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

as cold as things look over the next couple of weeks, one would expect a period of warmth to follow. Hopefully it shifts back to colder the second half of December like the Weeklies show.....

That would be great.  Cold now, warm first half of December and then cold again for a chance at a white Xmas down in SNE.

 

Then the rest of the winter can f*ck off for all I care.

[brooklynwx99]

21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

do you know where to get MT/AAM data these days? 

i usually don't use the raw data, I just look at pressure anomalies over Asia. there is a strong HP over Mongolia and China with strong LP to the NW and in the Himalayas... the PGF from these systems points to the west, so the Pacific jet extends and increases strength in order to conserve momentum

the opposite is true with strong LP into eastern Asia

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i usually don't use the raw data, I just look at pressure anomalies over Asia. there is a strong HP over Mongolia and China with strong LP to the NW and in the Himalayas... the PGF from these systems points to the west, so the Pacific jet extends and increases strength in order to conserve momentum

the opposite is true with strong LP into eastern Asia

That's probably a better method than just a raw index itself, thanks!

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

That's probably a better method than just a raw index itself, thanks!

here's a glaring example of a -EAMT that leads to a jet retraction. pretty much the opposite of what we have going on in the near future

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hideous early Dec 

https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1724411830116774374?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

At the same time, We can’t expect wall to wall constant cold from mid/late November through the end of March either…there will be relaxation and mild ups where we live in SNE, especially early on.  
 

I’ll gladly take some good cold starting next week for 8-10 days, with a shot at some wintry precip, and then a warm up after that; especially if we reload for mid to later December when we start to enter our climatological wheelhouse .  That’s a decent trade off to start us out here in SNE imo. 
 

And that December period isn’t carved in stone either, just like T Giving was supposedly looking nice and mild a week or two ago…not gonna happen now cuz things change.   

[Snowcrazed71]

24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hideous early Dec 

https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1724411830116774374?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

That's funny. I was listening to Gil on WTNH this morning, and he brought up December and said he's a lot of moisture for December and he's just not sure whether it's going to be on the snow your side or on the snow to rain side. But the fact that he mentioned that he says a lot of moisture for the month of December is a good thing

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

here's a glaring example of a -EAMT that leads to a jet retraction. pretty much the opposite of what we have going on in the near future

This is an area I want to really brush up more. I think a lot of our signals (looking in the 6-10 day...maybe even a bit further out) really start from this region. The last few winters we all kept getting excited for these "great" "positive" pattern changes being modeled 7-10 days out and they never happened. My hunch is 

1. the changes were the result of changes within the SLP field and jet over this continent 

2. Those changes never verified over the continent so we never saw the changes happen here.

 

Essentially, what I'm getting at is if forecast models are signaling big changes 7-10 days out here and it steams from changes over Asia/Russia say 3 days out...it's important to look at verification of the fields over Russia/Asia/ If those changes didn't happen then chances our we're not seeing much change either.

This is all just simple classification an of course.

[brooklynwx99]

there have been some posts on next week's potentially exciting pattern, so I thought I'd share some more coherent thoughts... the main driver for this change in the pattern from -PNA/+EPO to +PNA/-EPO will be an anomalously strong +EAMT (east Asian mountain torque) that will develop over the next couple of days. HP is around 3-4 sigma above normal here

the way EAMT works is that since the pressure gradient force is pointed to the west (wind blows from HP to LP), the Pacific jet must extend in order to conserve the total momentum. we see this Pacific jet extension here:

the Pacific jet extension then forces a strong Aleutian / GoA LP (yay El Nino) that leads to an anomalous -EPO that is also timed up with a +PNA! no more -EPO/-PNA crap from last year, it seems. these patterns are very efficient at driving Arctic air into the CONUS, especially the Plains eastward. given split flow and the displacement of the TPV into SE Canada, there is certainly an increased risk at seeing wintry weather, even south of the M-D line. either way, there is a reason for this pattern to develop... I don't think it's model fantasy BS

[CoastalWx]

46 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hideous early Dec 

https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1724411830116774374?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

I think that might be delayed. I still think we have a window late month into early December.

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think that might be delayed. I still think we have a window late month into early December.

Agreed. 

[WinterWolf]

28 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

there have been some posts on next week's potentially exciting pattern, so I thought I'd share some more coherent thoughts... the main driver for this change in the pattern from -PNA/+EPO to +PNA/-EPO will be an anomalously strong +EAMT (east Asian mountain torque) that will develop over the next couple of days. HP is around 3-4 sigma above normal here

the way EAMT works is that since the pressure gradient force is pointed to the west (wind blows from HP to LP), the Pacific jet must extend in order to conserve the total momentum. we see this Pacific jet extension here:

the Pacific jet extension then forces a strong Aleutian / GoA LP (yay El Nino) that leads to an anomalous -EPO that is also timed up with a +PNA! no more -EPO/-PNA crap from last year, it seems. these patterns are very efficient at driving Arctic air into the CONUS, especially the Plains eastward. given split flow and the displacement of the TPV into SE Canada, there is certainly an increased risk at seeing wintry weather, even south of the M-D line. either way, there is a reason for this pattern to develop... I don't think it's model fantasy BS

Fabulous post. And well explained/easy to understand for some of us laymen. Thank you. 

[OceanStWx]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think that might be delayed. I still think we have a window late month into early December.

I think that timing makes sense for a Christmas Grinch storm. 

[dryslot]

I'd bet for one then against one these days.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I think that timing makes sense for a Christmas Grinch storm. 

You're a mean one......

[#NoPoles]

I'd like to break the pattern of having tropical rain storms around Xmas-New Years.

We have had some brutal ones up here that literally wipe out the snowbase. Man-made Snow needs to start all over again and snow mobiling and xcountry  skiing shuts down until natural snow build back up. The ice castles have struggled the last 4 years up here.

[bwt3650]

At the same time, We can’t expect wall to wall constant cold from mid/late November through the end of March either…there will be relaxation and mild ups where we live in SNE, especially early on.  
 
I’ll gladly take some good cold starting next week for 8-10 days, with a shot at some wintry precip, and then a warm up after that; especially if we reload for mid to later December when we start to enter our climatological wheelhouse .  That’s a decent trade off to start us out here in SNE imo. 
 
And that December period isn’t carved in stone either, just like T Giving was supposedly looking nice and mild a week or two ago…not gonna happen now cuz things change.   

Agreed..If November plays out as currently modeled, I think we would all take the ratio of BN days to AN days all winter long and roll the dice with precip. Expecting or calling for wall to wall cold is just as ridiculous as thinking every month is a “torch.” Fall has been great so far..Warm October days and step down to cold right on schedule for Nov.


.

[#NoPoles]

11 hours ago, powderfreak said:

All I knew was they were on pace with their timeline of having the new lift operational before the Xmas-New Years holiday week.

Looks like the towers were flown in today.

 

I don’t know the status of the terminals but usually those take the longest to build.  Things like the towers, while big, get put in fast due to the cost of the helo.

String the haul rope, then test it, carriers go on quickly as long as they are on site, etc.

Thanks, there really has been no progress on the terminal at the base area. Just recently they poured concrete. Not much activity at the base area. Still big piles of dirt and rocks. Glad they are still on track for a successful timeline and opening of the new lift. I did see snow making at the base when I drove by the other day. 

[Layman]

4 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

Thanks, there really has been no progress on the terminal at the base area. Just recently they poured concrete. Not much activity at the base area. Still big piles of dirt and rocks. Glad they are still on track for a successful timeline and opening of the new lift. I did see snow making at the base when I drove by the other day. 

Looks like they may be working on the base today.  I'm always surprised to see how quickly some of these projects go up, but as you've said, it's getting pretty late in the season for this one to come together.

https://www.attitash.com/the-mountain/mountain-conditions/mountain-cams.aspx 

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

At the same time, We can’t expect wall to wall constant cold from mid/late November through the end of March either…there will be relaxation and mild ups where we live in SNE, especially early on.  
 

I’ll gladly take some good cold starting next week for 8-10 days, with a shot at some wintry precip, and then a warm up after that; especially if we reload for mid to later December when we start to enter our climatological wheelhouse .  That’s a decent trade off to start us out here in SNE imo. 
 

And that December period isn’t carved in stone either, just like T Giving was supposedly looking nice and mild a week or two ago…not gonna happen now cuz things change.   

Good point. Years and years of observing weather in my general area will tell you that real meat and potatoes winter, and most of our best never get started until at least Christmas +- a week or so. I always see any winter weather before than as a bonus

[weatherwiz]

Just now, UnitedWx said:

Good point. Years and years of observing weather in my general area will tell you that real meat and potatoes winter, and most of our best never get started until at least Christmas +- a week or so. I always see any winter weather before than as a bonus

Yeah I don't see why there are always so many freak outs for lack of snow in December or even November. I would figure pretty much everyone in this region's climatological max for snowfall is January/February. This has been mentioned a million times before (although not sure if the past 10-15 years has changed this) but at least BDL used to average more snow in March than December. 

[UnitedWx]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Yeah I don't see why there are always so many freak outs for lack of snow in December or even November. I would figure pretty much everyone in this region's climatological max for snowfall is January/February. This has been mentioned a million times before (although not sure if the past 10-15 years has changed this) but at least BDL used to average more snow in March than December. 

Pretty mind boggling for sure. Heck, I even remember a winter the last decade or so where we didn't get anything before mid January, and were above normal by seasons end. Unfortunately I have the opposite of Wills brain... so the year escapes me

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Yeah I don't see why there are always so many freak outs for lack of snow in December or even November. I would figure pretty much everyone in this region's climatological max for snowfall is January/February. This has been mentioned a million times before (although not sure if the past 10-15 years has changed this) but at least BDL used to average more snow in March than December. 

It's close on normals, only about 1 inch more (10.1" to 9.4") in December. But really if you punt the first two weeks of December and the last two of March, that's your season.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Pretty mind boggling for sure. Heck, I even remember a winter the last decade or so where we didn't get anything before mid January, and were above normal by seasons end. Unfortunately I have the opposite of Wills brain... so the year escapes me

I mean how often do we see significant winter storms before Christmas? How many of our winter's are generally "front loaded". And I don't count getting 15'' in December with a seasonal total of 32'' as "front loaded". 

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

It's close on normals, only about 1 inch more (10.1" to 9.4") in December. But really if you punt the first two weeks of December and the last two of March, that's your season.

December we're still eradicating milder temperatures and building cold into southeast Canada. Moving into March we're still more likely to have a significant cold source around. 

[Lava Rock]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I think that might be delayed. I still think we have a window late month into early December.

yeah, right till xmas. 

[Typhoon Tip]

I've been monitoring that myself - the Asian forcing.. 

I think the idea in the late mids and ext ranges wrt to the operational version(s) is related to that. Namely, we keep seeing the southern streams getting left behind by a progressive/strengthening N/stream across the N arc of the Pac and downstream across  Canada.  The Asian stuff appears to be overwhelming the popular ideas surrounding an ' El Nino' autumn

   ( this is not a warm ENSO forcing pattern!)

It short, N/stream dominant pattern is emerging in the guidance tenor.   I noticed ( case in point) the overnight runs actually went so far as to destructively interfere with cyclogenesis fields in lieu of this dominating N/stream complexion/ windy fropas with knuckle aching flow over the mid and high lat continent.  There's still stuff going on... but if folks are in this engagement for following fun/substantive events, we really don't want a gradient rich compressed monster N/stream with a -3 standard deviation SPVs rollin' over James Bay, either.

The upshot is that "mids and ext ranges" aspect means this can correct, and probably in practical terms ... having cold available in a CC raging boner world may not be a bad thing from this range, anyway.  ( Lol).  I mean, as we get closer ... I could see these very deep SPVs shallowing some ( de magnification' ) which would transitively encourage more southern stream to run dynamics up underneath. 

[weatherwiz]

hmmm the 12z GFS is going to be a tad interesting me thinks 

[Winter Wizard]

Looks like a brief window for a bit of early season fun from just after Thanksgiving into the first couple days of December. Obviously a lot needs to line up, but with a -EPO and now a +PNA (which was a big reversal yesterday), we may get some BN anomalies for a time coupled with the active STJ. The driver of this is a major reversal in global wind to the negative phase, which will actually put us in a La Nina esque regime for a time, similar to what we saw around Halloween. My hunch is this is temporary, maybe a few days then we return to a torch pattern through the middle of the month. 

[weatherwiz]

If this were even 4-6 weeks later this would be some big time excitement in terms of tracking

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, UnitedWx said:

Pretty mind boggling for sure. Heck, I even remember a winter the last decade or so where we didn't get anything before mid January, and were above normal by seasons end. Unfortunately I have the opposite of Wills brain... so the year escapes me

Not within the last decade, but 06-07 fits that description.  The period Nov 8 thru Jan 13 (67 days) had only 11.0" snow and temps 8.0° AN.  Jan 14 thru April 17 (94 days) brought another 84.3" with temps 5.3° BN.  Result was a slightly AN snow season, and the only time I expect to see a storm (Patriot's Day) produce 5" snow and 5" rain.
03-04 was just the opposite, with the storms of Dec 6-7 and 14-15 totaling 37.2", which was 51% of the winter's snowfall.

Yesterday's 34/14 was the first double-digit BN day since the nasty cold rain of June 4.  Cloudy today but whatever might be falling is getting eaten by the dry air.

[CoastalWx]

Violence approaches on the GFS. Wow.