CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 Just now, dendrite said: The Rod Rust Patriots are getting to him. Rude awakening for these kids nowadays. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 32 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Just realized we’ve had a -NAO regime since 9/10! And it looks like this streak breaks right around —you guess it—December 1st! I wouldn't be shocked, in fact, I'm anticipating a +NAO regime to evolve for the month of December, but we see a transition to a more blocking regime probably by late month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Cry more. Enjoy the warmth, it’s the only warmth you got. A BN November is absolutely not evidence that “this year is different than last” sorry. That’s not rooted in science. And what you’re saying isn’t either. At all. It’s already different than last year…if you can’t see and feel that, you have zero insight. Doesn’t mean a blockbuster, and nobody is implying anything like that. A normal/average winter incoming…been telling you that for 3 plus months. And BTW, Where’s all your warmth? Keep pushing the warmth train this month…the atmosphere doesn’t seem to be listening. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Rude awakening for these kids nowadays. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Cry more. Enjoy the warmth, it’s the only warmth you got. A BN November is absolutely not evidence that “this year is different than last” sorry. That’s not rooted in science. It works here, for our short (25 years) POR. Percent of average snow: OCT AN 105% OCT BN 95% NOV AN 89% NOV BN 114% Both AN 91% Both BN 105% O AN, N BN 125% O BN, N AN 87% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 6 minutes ago, tamarack said: It works here, for our short (25 years) POR. Percent of average snow: OCT AN 105% OCT BN 95% NOV AN 89% NOV BN 114% Both AN 91% Both BN 105% O AN, N BN 125% O BN, N AN 87% He knows very little of the ways of SNE winters…been spoiled there the last decade plus at least (yet says the last decade hasn’t been good for snow in SNE Lmao) He was due for major regression, and last year was a real stinker for him and most in SNE. So now he feels every winter going forward will suck..cuz you know that’s how the weather works. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Rude awakening for these kids nowadays. They're finding out these last 20+ yrs is not always how it was. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 1 minute ago, dryslot said: They're finding out these last 22 yrs is not always how it was. The funny thing is, he said last week that the last decade has been bad in SNE for winter folks. I mean, if he really thinks that, he’s absolutely off his rocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Rude awakening for these kids nowadays. Time to fire up the Hugh Millen/Tommy Hodson era at QB again....the winters are matching. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Time to fire up the Hugh Millen/Tommy Hodson era at QB again....the winters are matching. LOL Oh man. We also may have someone ready to martyr himself in Methuen if we have another bad winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Time to fire up the Hugh Millen/Tommy Hodson era at QB again....the winters are matching. Finish the year with Bailey Zolak...new coach and a 1st round franchise QB to start the following year. 92-93 winter incoming? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 Looking like the thanksgiving period is going to feature a system on all the modeling details TBD. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 33 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I wouldn't be shocked, in fact, I'm anticipating a +NAO regime to evolve for the month of December, but we see a transition to a more blocking regime probably by late month. Could be later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Finish the year with Bailey Zolak...new coach and a 1st round franchise QB to start the following year. 92-93 winter incoming? That was a pretty good winter here…I’ll take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: Looking like the thanksgiving period is going to feature a system on all the modeling details TBD. Tday itself is starting to look pretty damned cold on all guidance now...still a bit of uncertainty, but a lot less than there was even a day or two ago. Could see another system later that weekend too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Time to fire up the Hugh Millen/Tommy Hodson era at QB again....the winters are matching. There’s a whole generation of people of have no idea about this era of Pats history! We grew up with it and know how good things have been hence the last 20 years and I have no issues with some down years now; others are running for Zakim not sure what is happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Tday itself is starting to look pretty damned cold on all guidance now...still a bit of uncertainty, but a lot less than there was even a day or two ago. Could see another system later that weekend too. Yeah, It looks like some are inline for some wintry conditions in that period, Ensembles look cold too so i wouldn't be surprised if one of these ends up being first snow for many here if it works out with storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Could be later. Yeah possible...which if that happens I may start to get a little worried (but that is going to depend how we're looking in the stratosphere). But given how (and I'm reading through your winter outlook now) it seems we're along the same thought process regarding needing the Arctic to cooperate, if we start getting any delay in that I may get a bit nervous. But if we're at least evolving towards emerging blocking holding off a few weeks won't be too bad. IMO, any instances of +AO we see going into or through December, is going to be a product of the hemispheric evolution of the synoptic pattern and will not really be reflective of stratospheric evolution. This is why I like 1957-1958 as my top analog. If any positive instances of AO/NAO are driven by synoptic evolutions and not stratospheric this will tell me the two aren't coupled and the stratosphere is setting up for blocking...and that eventually we will see this become reflective within the troposphere and then the stratosphere/troposphere become coupled...and in a way to where we can deliver. But in this scenario I do think there would be at least some possibility of suppression but that would be the product of some highly anomalous blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 4 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: There’s a whole generation of people of have no idea about this era of Pats history! We grew up with it and know how good things have been hence the last 20 years and I no issues with some down years now; others are running for Zakim not sure what is happening. Outside of 1985 when the bears mopped the field with the Pats in the SB, The 70's, 80's and 90's were pretty awful for us Pats fans, This is why, I have no issues with whats happening, No other team has been able to go on the run the Pats have in the free agent era. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Yeah possible...which if that happens I may start to get a little worried (but that is going to depend how we're looking in the stratosphere). But given how (and I'm reading through your winter outlook now) it seems we're along the same thought process regarding needing the Arctic to cooperate, if we start getting any delay in that I may get a bit nervous. But if we're at least evolving towards emerging blocking holding off a few weeks won't be too bad. IMO, any instances of +AO we see going into or through December, is going to be a product of the hemispheric evolution of the synoptic pattern and will not really be reflective of stratospheric evolution. This is why I like 1957-1958 as my top analog. If any positive instances of AO/NAO are driven by synoptic evolutions and not stratospheric this will tell me the two aren't coupled and the stratosphere is setting up for blocking...and that eventually we will see this become reflective within the troposphere and then the stratosphere/troposphere become coupled...and in a way to where we can deliver. But in this scenario I do think there would be at least some possibility of suppression but that would be the product of some highly anomalous blocking. If we get to mid January with a Vin Diesl PV, then I will be worried. However, I am confident that that will not be the case. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 When December torches at least everyone will have fond memories of this slightly below November we had, with tons of snow of course. You said Nov was a torch…you were wrong. What are you seeing that says Dec is a torch? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 1957 is great from an ENSO and solar standpoint, but I think it will be a little less blocky on average....the huge difference is the extra tropical Pacific....this is why I like 1965 better. 1957-1958 is the best solar analog, though....ascending damn near max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, bwt3650 said: You said Nov was a torch…you were wrong. What are you seeing that says Dec is a torch? . Foggy goggles are skewing his thoughts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If we get to mid January with a Vin Diesl PV, then I will be worried. However, I am confident that that will not be the case. Agreed and I can't see the PV ever really getting an opportunity to become seasonably strong and dominant. I am also fine with "less blocky". Not only do we reduce the potential for suppression with less blocky but I think we increase the potential for pattern re-loading instead of just a stagnant, decaying pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 High of 39F. 1st sub 40 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 Pretty nice looking runs today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Pretty nice looking runs today Hope you have some pretty nice looking TP comabt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 Decent chance of some snow showers and flurries coming through this evening....so maybe those who haven't seen first flakes yet will see a few. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 2nd straight day with highs staying in the 30’s. 36 yesterday and 39 today 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Decent chance of some snow showers and flurries coming through this evening....so maybe those who haven't seen first flakes yet will see a few. Haven’t seen them here yet, doesn’t look like these will make it here either, unfortunate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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