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Yesvember or November?


Go Kart Mozart
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32 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Just realized we’ve had a -NAO regime since 9/10! And it looks like this streak breaks right around —you guess it—December 1st!
 

:arrowhead:

I wouldn't be shocked, in fact, I'm anticipating a +NAO regime to evolve for the month of December, but we see a transition to a more blocking regime probably by late month. 

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1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Cry more. Enjoy the warmth, it’s the only warmth you got.

A BN November is absolutely not evidence that “this year is different than last” sorry. That’s not rooted in science.

And what you’re saying isn’t either. At all. It’s already different than last year…if you can’t see and feel that, you have zero insight.  Doesn’t mean a blockbuster, and nobody is implying anything like that.  A normal/average winter incoming…been telling you that for 3 plus months. 
 

And BTW, Where’s all your warmth?  Keep pushing the warmth train this month…the atmosphere doesn’t seem to be listening. 

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6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Cry more. Enjoy the warmth, it’s the only warmth you got.

A BN November is absolutely not evidence that “this year is different than last” sorry. That’s not rooted in science.

It works here, for our short (25 years) POR.
Percent of average snow:

OCT AN    105%
OCT BN     95%

NOV AN     89%
NOV BN    114%

Both AN     91%
Both BN    105%

O AN, N BN  125%
O BN, N AN   87%

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6 minutes ago, tamarack said:

It works here, for our short (25 years) POR.
Percent of average snow:

OCT AN    105%
OCT BN     95%

NOV AN     89%
NOV BN    114%

Both AN     91%
Both BN    105%

O AN, N BN  125%
O BN, N AN   87%

He knows very little of the ways of SNE winters…been spoiled there the last decade plus at least (yet says the last decade hasn’t been good for snow in SNE Lmao)

He was due for major regression, and last year was a real stinker for him and most in SNE. So now he feels every winter going forward will suck..cuz you know that’s how the weather works.  

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4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Looking like the thanksgiving period is going to feature a system on all the modeling details TBD.

Tday itself is starting to look pretty damned cold on all guidance now...still a bit of uncertainty, but a lot less than there was even a day or two ago. Could see another system later that weekend too.

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20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Time to fire up the  Hugh Millen/Tommy Hodson era at QB again....the winters are matching.

There’s a whole generation of people of have no idea about this era of Pats history! We grew up with it and know how good things have been hence the last 20 years and I have no issues with some down years now; others are running for Zakim not sure what is happening.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Tday itself is starting to look pretty damned cold on all guidance now...still a bit of uncertainty, but a lot less than there was even a day or two ago. Could see another system later that weekend too.

Yeah, It looks like some are inline for some wintry conditions in that period, Ensembles look cold too so i wouldn't be surprised if one of these ends up being first snow for many here if it works out with storm track.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Could be later.

Yeah possible...which if that happens I may start to get a little worried (but that is going to depend how we're looking in the stratosphere). But given how (and I'm reading through your winter outlook now) it seems we're along the same thought process regarding needing the Arctic to cooperate, if we start getting any delay in that I may get a bit nervous. But if we're at least evolving towards emerging blocking holding off a few weeks won't be too bad. 

IMO, any instances of +AO we see going into or through December, is going to be a product of the hemispheric evolution of the synoptic pattern and will not really be reflective of stratospheric evolution. This is why I like 1957-1958 as my top analog. If any positive instances of AO/NAO are driven by synoptic evolutions and not stratospheric this will tell me the two aren't coupled and the stratosphere is setting up for blocking...and that eventually we will see this become reflective within the troposphere and then the stratosphere/troposphere become coupled...and in a way to where we can deliver. But in this scenario I do think there would be at least some possibility of suppression but that would be the product of some highly anomalous blocking.

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4 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

There’s a whole generation of people of have no idea about this era of Pats history! We grew up with it and know how good things have been hence the last 20 years and I no issues with some down years now; others are running for Zakim not sure what is happening.

Outside of 1985 when the bears mopped the field with the Pats in the SB, The 70's, 80's and 90's were pretty awful for us Pats fans, This is why, I have no issues with whats happening, No other team has been able to go on the run the Pats have in the free agent era.

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yeah possible...which if that happens I may start to get a little worried (but that is going to depend how we're looking in the stratosphere). But given how (and I'm reading through your winter outlook now) it seems we're along the same thought process regarding needing the Arctic to cooperate, if we start getting any delay in that I may get a bit nervous. But if we're at least evolving towards emerging blocking holding off a few weeks won't be too bad. 

IMO, any instances of +AO we see going into or through December, is going to be a product of the hemispheric evolution of the synoptic pattern and will not really be reflective of stratospheric evolution. This is why I like 1957-1958 as my top analog. If any positive instances of AO/NAO are driven by synoptic evolutions and not stratospheric this will tell me the two aren't coupled and the stratosphere is setting up for blocking...and that eventually we will see this become reflective within the troposphere and then the stratosphere/troposphere become coupled...and in a way to where we can deliver. But in this scenario I do think there would be at least some possibility of suppression but that would be the product of some highly anomalous blocking.

If we get to mid January with a Vin Diesl PV, then I will be worried. However, I am confident that that will not be the case.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If we get to mid January with a Vin Diesl PV, then I will be worried. However, I am confident that that will not be the case.

Agreed and I can't see the PV ever really getting an opportunity to become seasonably strong and dominant. 

I am also fine with "less blocky". Not only do we reduce the potential for suppression with less blocky but I think we increase the potential for pattern re-loading instead of just a stagnant, decaying pattern. 

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