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Yesvember or November?


Go Kart Mozart
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22 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Nah ... it's more likely that GFS -type solution is put through the "model magnification lens" at this range, D10+

There's a modest mode transition -related signal with the upstream modulation going on over the E-NE Pac into western N/A toward the end of next week.  -EPO burst ( may or may not be very well spatially coherent in the layout, but is there in the numerical equivalencies) then relaying into a -1 to +1 d(PNA). 

So dumping some kind of Pac energy E of 100 W across the continent between D9 and 13 ( or so), isn't a terrible fit ...However, typically all guidance when first detecting those kind of favorable periods will first blow the charts away with a comet impact bomb.  The actual numeric teleconnections would support system of less magnitude, however.

So would watch that period for a flatter system of relative import ... rolling up underneath the predecessor D7 front/ frontal wave.

I dunno…Experience is the forecasted teles can have large error bars (hidden) at inflection points. I believe this is one. The MJO is transitioning from 7 to 8 to (likely) 1 over this time frame, and there’s been a lot of potential energy in an ENSO that hasn’t flexed in CONUS weather patterns (yet). I believe the latter is about to show up with a bang. 
 

Strongly hedge in favor of amped and active.

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Weenie that I am I went to bed with BOS at 33-got up to make sure AOB 32 was reached.  Most of us just inland were AOB 32 from mid evening on last night.  Low was 25 here.   So now that BOS got there close to the average first 32 date we can check that box and move to first inch of snow.

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