weathafella Posted October 31, 2023 Share Posted October 31, 2023 It just feels good to have a natural progression to winter even if December is disappointing. I typically don’t have big snow expectations before the solstice so a mild December won’t surprise or bother me. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2023 Share Posted October 31, 2023 Some in the industry thinking we may see a cold shot into the CONUS and eventually east early in December as Nino still doesn't have a defined look established. At the mercy of MJO/CCKW passages. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted October 31, 2023 Share Posted October 31, 2023 38 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: December isn't even that much of a winter month if you're near the coast. SE MA averages like 6" in December and close to 20" in Jan and Feb each. Mar is closer to 10" as well at least Ninos maximize the months that are already good instead of Ninas where you wreck your best month it is a winter month up here-but massive variability: average 17" in December over 20 years. and Dec snowfall does not predict winter in any way. last 5 Decembers: 2018: 4", below normal winter 2019: 29", way below normal winter 2020: 32", below normal winter 2021: 9", way below normal winter 2022: 6", just above average winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 31, 2023 Share Posted October 31, 2023 Flip a coin at this point…and you may be right with regards to December…4 weeks off at the minimum, so it’s anybody’s guess at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 31, 2023 Share Posted October 31, 2023 Life and actual work are preventing me from being very involved, much to the satisfaction of the collective, I'm sure... but clearly there is some sort of move by all three ensemble members toward the coast for the 8th-ish of November. The telecon spread/leading modality's are not altogether terrible, something seems more likely than not to be emerging along the M/A. There is spread (of course..) at this range so keeping an eye on it. The other issue is that it is less than clear what/if/where cold air 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 31, 2023 Share Posted October 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Life and actual work are preventing me from being very involved, much to the satisfaction of the collective, I'm sure... but clearly there is some sort of move by all three ensemble members toward the coast for the 8th-ish of November. The telecon spread/leading modality's are not altogether terrible, something seems more likely than not to be emerging along the M/A. There is spread (of course..) at this range so keeping an eye on it. The other issue is that it is less than clear what/if/where cold air 11/8 looks kind of warm to me, though enough cold lurking nearby that an ideal track may produce interior snows....but there's another window after that in the 11/10-12 timeframe which looks like it has a lot more cold available. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 31, 2023 Share Posted October 31, 2023 Up in NNE, Its tough to get big totals generally if you lose December due to AN and below avg snow, You really need to have an AN Jan-Feb to build a pack but some years like last year, It all fell up here rather late end of Jan into March but now sun angle comes into play for retention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 31, 2023 Share Posted October 31, 2023 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: December isn't even that much of a winter month if you're near the coast. SE MA averages like 6" in December and close to 20" in Jan and Feb each. Mar is closer to 10" as well I know you just thru out ball park numbers but SE mass near the coast is probably 36 in Taunton annually , BOS upper 40’s Plymouth 30’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 31, 2023 Share Posted October 31, 2023 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I know you just thru out ball park numbers but SE mass near the coast is probably 33-35 in Taunton annually , BOS 45 , Plymouth 30’s My current location definitely averages more than that. I’d say mid 40s anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted October 31, 2023 Share Posted October 31, 2023 14 hours ago, WinterWolf said: December of 89 was absolutely frigid…rest of the winter after that sucked, so I hope not. Felt so good at the start and then... nothing. I remember that one well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2023 Share Posted October 31, 2023 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: My current location definitely averages more than that. I’d say mid 40s anyway Yeah maybe a little more than Bob, but I think 40-43ish when you factor in long term (not just 30 yr). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 31, 2023 Share Posted October 31, 2023 7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: My current location definitely averages more than that. I’d say mid 40s anyway NOAA says 36 for you and 36 for PYM I could buy 40 on NW edge of town Unless you live on A 400’ hill or at borderland state park In Easton I’m talking all time averages (including last year when it was skunkville) either way , my point was SE mass near coast doesn’t average 20 in Jan and FeB 10 in March and 6 in December for a mid 50’s average . I know this is a weenie board but Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2023 Share Posted October 31, 2023 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: NOAA says 36 for you and 36 for PYM I could buy 40 on NW edge of town Unless you live on A 400’ hill or at borderland state park In Easton I’m talking all time averages (including last year when it was skunkville) He's no doubt over 36. Even the E Wareham coop is over 35"....and also has some missing data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 31, 2023 Share Posted October 31, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: He's no doubt over 36. Even the E Wareham coop is over 35"....and also has some missing data. I’d take whatever number Will says for a all time average it sure isn’t 50” in Taunton lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2023 Share Posted October 31, 2023 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: I’d take whatever number Will says for a all time average His map agrees with that. Norton POR since 1978 is 43.5" and BOX since 1994 is 44.6". Obviously BOX total includes good snow years, but I think argues for my educated guess. FWIW the Hingham guy near me since 1960 is 49.5". I'd say he's fairly consistent/conservative too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 31, 2023 Share Posted October 31, 2023 18 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I’d take whatever number Will says for a all time average it sure isn’t 50” in Taunton lol I'd put Taunton in the 42-45ish range long term. They've been more than that recently, but the last 25 years is not the normal no matter how much we all want it to be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 31, 2023 Share Posted October 31, 2023 23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: He's no doubt over 36. Even the E Wareham coop is over 35"....and also has some missing data. Yeah anything that says TAN and PYM average the same amount of snow is not correct. PYM is prob a solid 6" less. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2023 Share Posted October 31, 2023 My sort of anecdotal observation is that you begin to see a more significant decrease in snow along the immediate coast when you get to about Marshfield. Significant is relative of course when talking 45"+ or 35"+...but that seems to be where it starts to get more noticeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 31, 2023 Share Posted October 31, 2023 1 hour ago, dryslot said: Up in NNE, Its tough to get big totals generally if you lose December due to AN and below avg snow, You really need to have an AN Jan-Feb to build a pack but some years like last year, It all fell up here rather late end of Jan into March but now sun angle comes into play for retention. When you say AN…you mean above normal as in temp? Or as in snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 31, 2023 Share Posted October 31, 2023 Just now, WinterWolf said: When you say AN…you mean above normal as in temp? Or as in snowfall? He means snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 31, 2023 Share Posted October 31, 2023 Yeah next week has trended rainer to Mainers . Lost that cold HP that had been modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted October 31, 2023 Share Posted October 31, 2023 1 hour ago, dryslot said: Up in NNE, Its tough to get big totals generally if you lose December due to AN and below avg snow, You really need to have an AN Jan-Feb to build a pack but some years like last year, It all fell up here rather late end of Jan into March but now sun angle comes into play for retention. I have only had 9 winters here, so not a huge sample size, but Dec has the highest average snow total here, so if you lose that , you fall behind quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 31, 2023 Share Posted October 31, 2023 15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: When you say AN…you mean above normal as in temp? Or as in snowfall? 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: He means snow. Yes, Snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 31, 2023 Share Posted October 31, 2023 8 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said: I have only had 9 winters here, so not a huge sample size, but Dec has the highest average snow total here, so if you lose that , you fall behind quickly. I have my numbers somewhere by month but have a lot going on to say the least but Dec typically here i think off the top of my head is in the 18-20"/mos, So when you lose that, Its an uphill climb to get to avg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 31, 2023 Share Posted October 31, 2023 Upcoming weekend looks decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted October 31, 2023 Share Posted October 31, 2023 28 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Upcoming weekend looks decent. Until you had to go and say that out loud and jinx it for us! Take it back, quick! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 31, 2023 Share Posted October 31, 2023 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: I'd put Taunton in the 42-45ish range long term. They've been more than that recently, but the last 25 years is not the normal no matter how much we all want it to be. If they’re at 42-45 where does that leave me? I always thought it was about 45” here. Hard to know with HFD data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 31, 2023 Share Posted October 31, 2023 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: If they’re at 42-45 where does that leave me? I always thought it was about 45” here. Hard to know with HFD data. BDL was near 50" so you'd maybe a few inches less? 45-48ish? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 31, 2023 Share Posted October 31, 2023 Euro is intriguing for NNE for the 11/7-8 threat. Even flips SNE to snow after rain first....but that was one of the colder solutions in the past couple model cycles....still think something the following weekend in the 11/10-12 range would be a bit easier to get frozen out of (and clown range Euro does look interesting at the end of its run for that) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 31, 2023 Share Posted October 31, 2023 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: BDL was near 50" so you'd maybe a few inches less? 45-48ish? Ok I’m not off then. Always thought between 45-50. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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