TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Yore https://www.facebook.com/share/p/i9MnBbqqau2rryfn/?mibextid=WC7FNe Seems like it would take a Herculean effort to get that to ever occur again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Gonna be a lot of testy weenies pretty soon lol. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the pattern flipped the final week of the month. Late Nov 1985 and Dec 1985 were very cold....we prob left some potential on the table in Dec 1985. It was like a -5 month, but not all that snowy. Yep, there are wholesale difference in the ensemble spatial/domain layouts centered on the 23rd itself - just knowing that days leading and fading from then had to produce the following, but here are the GEFs from 06z That right there is a honkin' signal for with a hybrid -EPO/+PNA, also coupled this a deep latitude trough configuration downstream. Within that domain space, that's not an aberrant look. Fits the Rossby counts when considering upstream exit off Asia into the WPO domain, too. etc etc. The 00z version of this wasn't terribly different - just a somewhat lesser amplified version. The GEPs on the other hand looks a little bit less impressive... Although not the worse agreement, either. There is some semblance of nod to the notion of building heights into the EPO region ...which given time, lends to evolving toward the GEF's modes. But the point is, the ensemble means are also 'iffy' agreement. The 00z EPS has an oddly compressed height field across the hemisphere. It's as though it has -AO, with very little or not actual positive geopotential nodes above the PV boundary. - it's a separate discussion but whether the GEP or GEFs are correct aside, I don't believe this particular depiction is very likely to occur. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 40 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Seems like it would take a Herculean effort to get that to ever occur again. Nov 2018 we had a real nice November event. November 2012 we did too. November 2002 we did too. They happen. You need to remember more than just the last two years Brett. No Herculean effort..just the right set up. It doesn’t always happen obviously, but it does happen. Now take the noose off your neck. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just sheer boredom as far as eye can see . Nothing to track or look forward to So... You have been on here as long as most. You should know that things can change within a weeks time when it comes to weather systems and storms here in SNE/NNE. So... It may seem a bit boring at the moment ( let's call it a re-charge of the atmosphere... And as we know... Things will flip. So give it some time. Things will change and we will see some surprises as we head towards and into December. Plus, you know that when this happens, you will be right at the top as far as being on board when we do have something interesting to track. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 3 hours ago, WinterWolf said: The irony is, I didn’t commit at all, was just in awe over the anxiety, because we are 3 weeks away from the very start of December. And then we have 4 weeks to finish December. So my reasoning is, that is just too far out there at this point in time, to flush the month of December, and call it a loss wintry speaking, at least as of today. I said nothing about betting with somebody. I just didn’t understand the angst of some folks about December/and the up coming winter In general on 11/9? And that’s all there is to it on my end. If it ends up warm and snowless(December and the rest of the winter)..I’ll tip the cap to em. I hear ya... was just commenting on Powder-F comment... I do think there is far too much wrist-slitting about poorly modeled periods 3 to 5 weeks out in the future. You have to separate out the comments from some of the mets who are commenting on the look of the pattern, as modeled, and just indicating the most likely outcome were it too verify. That does not mean they think the pattern is likely to verify. They are just saying "IF" it looks like the modeled pattern when we get there, the likely outcome will such and such. Obviously, the trend on the extended period modeling does not look great and if the same trends continue to show-up for another week or two then there will be reason for concern. But as we have seen many times before, the weeklies can crash and burn miserably. Unfortunately, in recent years that has been the case many more times with projected cold periods than warm periods. And yes, even crappy looking Decembers can produce significant snow (or ice) events... All you need is a favorable, well-time period? I tend to not worry about solid winter patterns through mid-December; often I look at the holiday period moving forward... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 18 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Nov 2018 we had a real nice November event. November 2012 we did too. November 2002 we did too. They happen. You need to remember more than just the last two years Brett. No Herculean effort..just the right set up. It doesn’t always happen obviously, but it does happen. Now take the noose off your neck. Halloween 11. Then there was the 59-0 Pats game on 10/18/09 in the accumulating snow in his area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 19 minutes ago, dendrite said: Halloween 11. Then there was the 59-0 Pats game on 10/18/09 in the accumulating snow in his area. IIRC 10/18/09 was rain further inland too... good lift was highly localized right in that part of SEMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 41 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Nov 2018 we had a real nice November event. November 2012 we did too. November 2002 we did too. They happen. You need to remember more than just the last two years Brett. No Herculean effort..just the right set up. It doesn’t always happen obviously, but it does happen. Now take the noose off your neck. Nov 2004 too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 Nice look on the cmc in the long range and gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yep, there are wholesale difference in the ensemble spatial/domain layouts centered on the 23rd itself - just knowing that days leading and fading from then had to produce the following, but here are the GEFs from 06z That right there is a honkin' signal for with a hybrid -EPO/+PNA, also coupled this a deep latitude trough configuration downstream. Within that domain space, that's not an aberrant look. Fits the Rossby counts when considering upstream exit off Asia into the WPO domain, too. etc etc. The 00z version of this wasn't terribly different - just a somewhat lesser amplified version. The GEPs on the other hand looks a little bit less impressive... Although not the worse agreement, either. There is some semblance of nod to the notion of building heights into the EPO region ...which given time, lends to evolving toward the GEF's modes. But the point is, the ensemble means are also 'iffy' agreement. The 00z EPS has an oddly compressed height field across the hemisphere. It's as though it has -AO, with very little or not actual positive geopotential nodes above the PV boundary. - it's a separate discussion but whether the GEP or GEFs are correct aside, I don't believe this particular depiction is very likely to occur. Top... Question for you. When looking at the long range modeling.... Does one of these model stand out as far as being the closest their out looks on what might be on the horizon? I'm always curious when looking two to three weeks out if one of these models seems to be more consistent than another. Or is it really a role of the dice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Gonna be a lot of testy weenies pretty soon lol. As we turn the calendar to December and their lonely eyes are still looking at the weeklies for changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 GFS complete opposite of 00z. Lots of volatility. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 53 minutes ago, dendrite said: Halloween 11. Then there was the 59-0 Pats game on 10/18/09 in the accumulating snow in his area. 31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nov 2004 too. Yup..how did I forget The Octobomb of 2011…I was thinking November that’s why. But great point. And yes..2004 Scott. So even more examples for Brett to ponder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Yore https://www.facebook.com/share/p/i9MnBbqqau2rryfn/?mibextid=WC7FNe I remember that well. I was supposed to have my wisdom teeth pulled the day it hit, and woke up to the heaviest snow I had seen in a while. From what I remember it was a surprise as well. IIRC I was watching Scott Dorval on WVIT explain that they had expected rain... and were surprised it was snowing in many areas outside the hills. Loved it, but had to wait another agonizing month to get the teeth pulled 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 58 minutes ago, dendrite said: Halloween 11. Then there was the 59-0 Pats game on 10/18/09 in the accumulating snow in his area. that 10/18/09 event triggered me. Was nothing more than a rain/snow mix with no accumulation here. then I got home and flipped on the Pats game, I was like WTF! First, WTF is all the white stuff on the field? And second, WTF is with the score!?!?! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 Still looks BN favoring and potentially active, too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 GEPs trended colder. Probably an event risk in here, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 What I think is interesting here is that the MJO is on the doorstop of penetrating out of the RMM for the first time in weeks really, in mid 7 --> 8 ... which is prooobably less indicative of an actual MJO presence more likely the detection grid 'mistaking' R-wave forcing through the Pac domain. It's perhaps an indirect sort of indication that a signal is emerging because its detectable through different channel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 The snow is still clinging on. I’d like to get the last mowing in this weekend. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: That’s amazing It was a great series of ads. I also loved these two: "yeah you tell em Jerry If it only wasn't for the injury... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 Gefs and geps are starting to show a colder pattern near Thanksgiving. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Still looks BN favoring and potentially active, too Yeah end of the month is def trending colder on most ensemble guidance...i'll be interested to see if EPS go that direction too in a little bit here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 Its November 10th and people are freaking out about an entire winter ahead. Some things never change. One of the reasons I love this Board. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 50 minutes ago, dendrite said: The snow is still clinging on. I’d like to get the last mowing in this weekend. Mow the snow too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 1957-1958 winter incoming. Would be amazing if the pattern were able to develop faster than in 1957-1958 Actually the pattern this month isn't *too far off* from Dec of 1957. So let's December of 1957 out of the way now and then open the flood gates come December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Mow the snow too Man what a classic web cam image that would be. Dendy just push mowing through that with snow and grass getting shot out the side. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 End of EPS would work tail end of Novie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 Hopefully we get a window early December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Hopefully we get a window early December. Yeah let’s get that pattern for first week of Dec. That would likely give some chances. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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