CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 Already seeing the LBSW tenor of the season showing up. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 A jack for the chickens Public Information Statement National Weather Service Gray ME 1114 AM EST Thu Nov 9 2023 ...SNOWFALL REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...Maine... ...York County... North Berwick 5.3 W 1.8 in 0810 AM 11/09 COCORAHS 3 NNE Berwick 1.8 in 0810 AM 11/09 Wells 3.5 SW 1.0 in 0700 AM 11/09 COCORAHS 2 NNE Hollis 1.0 in 0800 AM 11/09 COCORAHS 5 NNW Acton 1.0 in 0820 AM 11/09 1 WSW Kittery 1.0 in 0847 AM 11/09 Trained Spotter ...New Hampshire... ...Belknap County... Belmont 1.7 SW 2.3 in 0700 AM 11/09 COCORAHS Tilton Northfield 3.3 NE 2.0 in 0700 AM 11/09 COCORAHS Meredith 3.3 NNE 2.0 in 0800 AM 11/09 COCORAHS 2 SSW Laconia 2.0 in 0830 AM 11/09 Trained Spotter 1.5 N Laconia 1.0 in 0630 AM 11/09 COOP 5 WNW Barnstead 1.0 in 0635 AM 11/09 Trained Spotter Meredith 2.9 SSW 1.0 in 0650 AM 11/09 COCORAHS ...Carroll County... Wolfeboro 1.5 SE 1.0 in 0700 AM 11/09 COCORAHS Albany 2.8 SW 1.0 in 0800 AM 11/09 COCORAHS 1 NE Wolfeboro 1.0 in 0800 AM 11/09 Trained Spotter ...Grafton County... Bristol 0.4 SSE 2.0 in 0700 AM 11/09 COCORAHS Hanover 4.8 NE 1.5 in 0700 AM 11/09 COCORAHS 5 SSW Lyme 1.5 in 0758 AM 11/09 Hanover 5.2 NE 1.5 in 0800 AM 11/09 COCORAHS Plymouth 3.7 N 1.0 in 0700 AM 11/09 COCORAHS Littleton 7.3 W 1.0 in 0800 AM 11/09 COCORAHS ...Merrimack County... Northfield 2.8 E 3.0 in 0722 AM 11/09 COCORAHS Danbury 2.2 ESE 2.2 in 0800 AM 11/09 COCORAHS Contoocook 9.1 NNW 2.1 in 0700 AM 11/09 COCORAHS 3 E Canterbury 2.0 in 0750 AM 11/09 Sutton Mills 0.1 ENE 1.6 in 0700 AM 11/09 COCORAHS Canterbury 2.5 SSW 1.4 in 0753 AM 11/09 COCORAHS Chichester 1.2 W 1.3 in 0700 AM 11/09 COCORAHS Concord Municipal Airport 1.2 in 0700 AM 11/09 Official NWS Obs South Sutton 1.3 SE 1.2 in 0800 AM 11/09 COCORAHS Concord 2.4 E 1.1 in 0700 AM 11/09 COCORAHS ...Rockingham County... Northwood 2.9 WSW 1.0 in 0700 AM 11/09 COCORAHS ...Strafford County... 1 N Dover 2.5 in 0815 AM 11/09 Trained Spotter Strafford 2.9 N 2.0 in 0800 AM 11/09 COCORAHS 4 NE Barrington 1.5 in 0830 AM 11/09 Trained Spotter Rochester 1.2 E 1.4 in 0830 AM 11/09 COCORAHS 3 NNE Northwood 1.4 in 0900 AM 11/09 Trained Spotter 2 ENE Northwood 1.4 in 0912 AM 11/09 Trained Spotter Rochester 3.4 ENE 1.3 in 0700 AM 11/09 COCORAHS ...Sullivan County... 1.3 NW Newport 1.5 in 0700 AM 11/09 COOP 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 just going to post some LR OP ragebait 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 I love the GFS op. Lets get a -NAO again with recycled marine puke and bury CA. 2 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: just going to post some LR OP ragebait Lets get winter 22-23 redux. 2 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 honestly that's just not going to happen later in the winter but it would be funny if it happened in December just to see the rage. i can see that happening in Dec 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 Need to get another snowstorm at the Rose Bowl. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 Of course it helps to augment ridging in the SW NAO region with two tropical systems pumping heat into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Of course it helps to augment ridging in the SW NAO region with two tropical systems pumping heat into it. That's what I'm wondering yeah. Cuz the last few runs didn't have that much -NAO response, but they also didn't have that TC capture, either. Those two are likely connected per this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: That's what I'm wondering yeah. Cuz the last few runs didn't have that much -NAO response, but they also didn't have that TC capture, either. Those two are likely connected per this run I just had a good laugh and that's all it's worth. I know you get it. And In November it doesn't really bother me. But total flashbacks to last winter there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: Really interesting to see some potential for tropical activity within the next 10 days. This may be a long shot but there may be a system in the Gulf late weekend/early next week which could materialize into something and the GFS has been really hinting at a pretty power Caribbean storm later next week or next weekend. Now of course neither of these will have an impact on our sensible weather, but when looking at this from an atmospheric perspective and forcings...this could be a clue of how the pattern could evolve moving through the second half of the month. Are there any specific things you would be looking for (generally) that coincide with or reinforce this atmospheric pattern going forward? What would you want to see over the next 3-5 days that would build confidence in the pattern taking shape and eventually impacting New England weather? I'm assuming that the weather impact on New England would be of the winter variety...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, Layman said: Are there any specific things you would be looking for (generally) that coincide with or reinforce this atmospheric pattern going forward? What would you want to see over the next 3-5 days that would build confidence in the pattern taking shape and eventually impacting New England weather? I'm assuming that the weather impact on New England would be of the winter variety...? A great place to really start is always the Pacific but the overall hemispheric pattern can provide a good signal...especially when its a ridge/trough pattern and everything is on the progressive side. You can get an idea of where your ridges/troughs will be 3-5+ days out. It's not always this clear cut but identifying where your troughs/ridges are can help. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 9, 2023 Author Share Posted November 9, 2023 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: Really interesting to see some potential for tropical activity within the next 10 days. This may be a long shot but there may be a system in the Gulf late weekend/early next week which could materialize into something and the GFS has been really hinting at a pretty power Caribbean storm later next week or next weekend. Now of course neither of these will have an impact on our sensible weather, but when looking at this from an atmospheric perspective and forcings...this could be a clue of how the pattern could evolve moving through the second half of the month. Damn, that's close to a destructive storm. Maybe a half day faster with the TC, or slower with the trough. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: A great place to really start is always the Pacific but the overall hemispheric pattern can provide a good signal...especially when its a ridge/trough pattern and everything is on the progressive side. You can get an idea of where your ridges/troughs will be 3-5+ days out. It's not always this clear cut but identifying where your troughs/ridges are can help. Thanks. Supposing the GFS is correct about a Caribbean storm, do the general mechanics and evolution of a storm in that location impact where the ridges and troughs eventually line up in a consistent manner? Sorry if these are very basic questions and most here already know these answers. I'm interested in better understanding the predictions at longer lead times so I can relate what I'm reading from folks here to what I'm seeing on the models. I appreciate anyone who takes the time to explain these answers for the Nth time so I can attempt to keep up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 KBOS with sleet mixed in hours ago. Does that count as the first or do we wait for snow? Edit-snow mix briefly earlier-I should have stayed up another hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 1 hour ago, tamarack said: Had a few flakes at 9:20 but nothing more until 10:50. Lgt snow since then, but temp is 32-33 and we're almost to solar noon, so unless it snows a lot harder, we'll not have more than a trace. Only place the flakes are surviving is on the upturned edges of the few oak leaves still on the tree. Timing is everything. Edit: Radar shows a short burst of mod snow now coming overhead, so maybe a tenth or 2 to whiten the lawn. 20 minutes of moderate snow brought 0.2" and dropped the temp back to 30-31, but now beginning to let up. "Flakes" were not quite spherical things about 1/16 diam, but not graupel. Not much but first white ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 55 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: just going to post some LR OP ragebait JHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 Yup lets get the cat 2 cane into nova scotia in the 3rd week of November. Totally normal....JFC! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 So I was reading Kevin’s posts about thanksgiving week and then looked at GEFS and realized they are cold that week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: So I was reading Kevin’s posts about thanksgiving week and then looked at GEFS and realized they are cold that week. Key before reading any of Kevs posts is to look at models yourself 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: So I was reading Kevin’s posts about thanksgiving week and then looked at GEFS and realized they are cold that week. Been a model war of sorts of Tday week....GEFS have been colder the last few runs while EPS are slightly above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 25 minutes ago, Layman said: Thanks. Supposing the GFS is correct about a Caribbean storm, do the general mechanics and evolution of a storm in that location impact where the ridges and troughs eventually line up in a consistent manner? Sorry if these are very basic questions and most here already know these answers. I'm interested in better understanding the predictions at longer lead times so I can relate what I'm reading from folks here to what I'm seeing on the models. I appreciate anyone who takes the time to explain these answers for the Nth time so I can attempt to keep up! I don't think that storm will really have an impact in that manner, but typhoons in the PAC (especially recurving Typhoons) can alter the downstream pattern significantly. @Ginx snewx and @Typhoon Tip can go into biblical details on this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Been a model war of sorts of Tday week....GEFS have been colder the last few runs while EPS are slightly above normal. tells me that period could be quite stormy...and hopefully we're on the colder side of the spectrum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 Where is the "torch" people were talking about? And what constitutes a "torch" in November. Last year it got up into the mid 70's here more than once. I can understand that being called a torch. But is a 60F day in November a torch or just a sort of normal warm November day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said: Where is the "torch" people were talking about? And what constitutes a "torch" in November. Last year it got up into the mid 70's here more than once. I can understand that being called a torch. But is a 60F day in November a torch or just a sort of normal warm November day? Next Wednesday through next Saturday/Sunday should be 5-15 degree anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said: Where is the "torch" people Kevin is talking about? And what constitutes a "torch" in November. Last year it got up into the mid 70's here more than once. I can understand that being called a torch. But is a 60F day in November a torch or just a sort of normal warm November day? Fixed 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 I’d say 10+F anomalies classify a torch. GEFS had 70% probs for 10+ anomalies. So it’s there especially next Thursday through Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 39 minutes ago, weathafella said: KBOS with sleet mixed in hours ago. Does that count as the first or do we wait for snow? Edit-snow mix briefly earlier-I should have stayed up another hour. First flakes before the first freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 Probably that weekend 18-19 is best chance for this "torch." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 It certainly won't be a torch one up here this weekend, We'll have to see going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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