Henry's Weather Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 7 hours ago, weathafella said: Coolidge Corner that night.... https://photos.app.goo.gl/6ngx1achj1nWmnJi6 I was in 4th grade at the time, I recall my art teacher telling us all that it would flip to rain. I remember disagreeing 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 22 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Yes, still too early to go all in on big heat for late next week. We wait. We look to see if modeling indeed heads in that real warm direction? Right now they're not calling for high heat late next week ( and I mean high heat for this time of the year which would be upper 60s to 70 ), I'm seeing temperatures around 60 for next Friday. But let's see if that changes and the next several days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 28 minutes ago, rclab said: Good morning DIT/dendrite. My one oak and maple hold on tenaciously. As the NY inner city Autumn, every year, seems to get closer to Spring. Stay well, as always … Looks like late May!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 15 hours ago, CoastalWx said: BTW, 11 years ago was the Son of Sandy. Was a siggy event in interior CT along the 84 corridor. SWCT special 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: SWCT special Those storms through January 2013 porked me, but it was nice to see Novie snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 That was a cold storm. I remember that snow being very powdery right down to the shore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 ...f.uckin' oaks.We have one or two oaks that are still mostly green. Usually a lot of leaves still on the trees by the time of the last town pickup in early December. Sent from my SM-A546U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 Was spiting snow earlier this morning, Looks like a bit more tomorrow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: That's why I replied "not so sure about that" to Kevin when he said we may hit 70. It will be AN, but I don't see this Bermuda high heat pump. Yup, Kevin's favorite pattern - wholly unremarkable in any dimension. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Yup, Kevin's favorite pattern - wholly unremarkable in any dimension. it's like you spoke and the GFS listened. That warm up really disappears quickly in the 12z op run. Hope ensembles have the same trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 It is legit cold today. Sitting 15F up top and 28F here at the office at 1,500ft as of 12:30pm. Snow guns blasting outside here in the base area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 Yeah... not that anyone bites on that GFS run but it's not just cold. There's a couple of decent wintry risks out there, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 Oh wait…so it’s not a lock for 70’s later next week..I mean T Flizz already had us basking in the tropics right through December…let alone later next week. Well ain’t that quite the turn around… 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 2 hours ago, HimoorWx said: We have one or two oaks that are still mostly green. Usually a lot of leaves still on the trees by the time of the last town pickup in early December. Sent from my SM-A546U using Tapatalk The amount of trees hovering over your house makes me cringe. Cutemdown! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 Just now, WinterWolf said: Oh wait…so it’s not a lock for 70’s later next week..I mean T Flizz already had us basking in the tropics right through December…let alone later next week. Well ain’t that quite the turn around… it means crap scientifically, but this year has a different feeling than last year to me so far. The plus 15 anomalies 15 days away aren't locked in and grow stronger as the days go by. Rain and 50 at 384 was the safest bet there was last year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah... not that anyone bites on that GFS run but it's not just cold. There's a couple of decent wintry risks out there, too. There’s been a lot of uncertainty out in that D10-15 range. Going full-on split flow out west is going to cause a colder look if that’s the path we take (ala OP GFS)…but EPS/Euro guidance has been saying not so fast…wait another week for that to happen. Interesting to track though… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 8 minutes ago, bwt3650 said: it means crap scientifically, but this year has a different feeling than last year to me so far. The plus 15 anomalies 15 days away aren't locked in and grow stronger as the days go by. Rain and 50 at 384 was the safest bet there was last year. Yes sir…you can already see and feel it. Doesn’t mean lots of wintry weather, especially right off the bat, but it’s not the same as last year that’s for sure, and that is the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 Voodoo 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There’s been a lot of uncertainty out in that D10-15 range. Going full-on split flow out west is going to cause a colder look if that’s the path we take (ala OP GFS)…but EPS/Euro guidance has been saying not so fast…wait another week for that to happen. Interesting to track though… I was just looking more closely at the EPO and PNA indexes betwixt the 12th and 20th ... There's canonical behavior in a EPO burst followed by +PNA emerging in the Euro ens. 'Reasonably' well matched in the GEFs but less coherent in the PNA aspect. That's usually a more indicative of a real R-wave translation through the NE Pac that across the Conus, as opposed to the more static/standing wave variant ( which tucks the cold and Rockies snow pack improvement) while we swelter east of 100W. Either can manifest down stream of a -EPO burst, but seeing the PNA is encouraging that we don't spend 3-5 days with 70 F speaking in deference to winter enthusiasts, mind you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Voodoo And so is saying December will end up a torch on November 7th… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 Actually, there's a signal in the WPO that precedes the EPO ... by a 3-5 days - albeit modest. It's there. That -d(WPO) --> -d(EPO) --> +PNA along that timeliness is a flag that there's an r-wave pulse moving through the N arc of Pac domain. It may not be a full on AB mode out there, but it's enough to send a cold shot/reload into Canada out past the 15th, nonetheless... We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 Just now, dendrite said: Voodoo yeah, no denying it means nothing. Some years though, it just seems it wants to snow and things break our way, while others, great patterns turn to shit no matter what..like last dec 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: And so is saying December will end up a torch on November 7th… Sure. I don’t get too excited either way beyond 2-3 weeks. I just don’t do the whole “feel” thing. Last Novie flipped to below normal toward mid month as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, bwt3650 said: yeah, no denying it means nothing. Some years though, it just seems it wants to snow and things break our way, while others, great patterns turn to shit no matter what..like last dec I agree that each winter tends to have an overall vibe to it. 11/8 just seems a little early for me to gauge that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 The amount of trees hovering over your house makes me cringe. Cutemdown!Fortunately they lean away from the house. We took down one giant oak this summer that leaned over the house once we discovered there was a crack about halfway up. Sent from my SM-A546U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: I agree that each winter tends to have an overall vibe to it. 11/8 just seems a little early for me to gauge that. Agreed. Typical wavelengths aren’t really in place yet for winter…and I think this year especially, we need to be wary of the potent El Niño still developing which can cause drastic changes in sensible wx as winter matures. It’s easier to start feeling down on winter in La Niña if December is a turd, but that’s probably premature in a potent El Niño. On the flip side, if we start rocking with snow threats in December during potent El Niño, that’s usually a sign of good things to come. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 48 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The amount of trees hovering over your house makes me cringe. Cutemdown! Wholeheartedly agree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 54 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The amount of trees hovering over your house makes me cringe. Cutemdown! You should see mine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 Would someone be so kind to enlighten me as to what "R-wave" refers to? I tried looking it up but didn't see anything really relating to weather aside from a post referencing graphing temps as a sine wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Agreed. Typical wavelengths aren’t really in place yet for winter…and I think this year especially, we need to be wary of the potent El Niño still developing which can cause drastic changes in sensible wx as winter matures. It’s easier to start feeling down on winter in La Niña if December is a turd, but that’s probably premature in a potent El Niño. On the flip side, if we start rocking with snow threats in December during potent El Niño, that’s usually a sign of good things to come. yeah this isn't a scenario where a good December means that the Nino isn't taking hold... most Ninos that start well also end well. 2002 and 2009 are good examples Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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