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Yesvember or November?


Go Kart Mozart
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17 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Of course I saw this and the first thing I had to do was jump up and look out the window. Nothing falling from the sky :(. Yes, I am a :weenie:.  34.7°

Ha. Looks like MPV nearby is showing 7 mile vis -SN/flurries… so some snow showers in the vicinity there at least.  

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

And suddenly … it’s stuck season. About 90% trees bare now. Some straggler Oaks .. nightmare leaf season winding down 

ujjQpwa.jpg

mine are just about bare too. that happened quickly-like in the last 4-5 days. hopefully last cleanup this weekend

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30 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Vermont resorts lit up like a Christmas tree this morning with snowmaking. Looks like a nice window through early next week before the heat.
 

Models seem to be having trouble really committing to the extent of that warm up in that period. I'm a little skeptical myself ...  I mean the period favors milder than normal. That's based upon pattern recognition/trend alone. But the other indicators are not that impressive for pushing anomalies very high.  That 'might' be why the operational solutions are keeping the ridge kind of flat, and have our 850 mbs < than +10C

We could also end up getting that typical New England exclusion synoptics. Enough NW deeper layer flow tendencies to shunt the ballast of warmth from getting NE of NYC.   Mild...but sort of cooler relative to the pattern at first glance.

Just some thoughts.  I mean if the telecon numerical stuff improves and the operationals raise height more in concert I'll get confident in an Indian Summer deal

 

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Models seem to be having trouble really committing to the extent of that warm up in that period. I'm a little skeptical myself ...  I mean the period favors milder than normal. That's based upon pattern recognition/trend alone. But the other indicators are not that impressive for pushing anomalies very high.  That 'might' be why the operational solutions are keeping the ridge kind of flat, and have our 850 mbs < than +10C

We could also end up getting that typical New England exclusion synoptics. Enough NW deeper layer flow tendencies to shunt the ballast of warmth from getting NE of NYC.   Mild...but sort of cooler relative to the pattern at first glance.

Just some thoughts.  I mean if the telecon numerical stuff improves and the operationals raise height more in concert I'll get confident in an Indian Summer deal

 

That's why I replied "not so sure about that" to Kevin when he said we may hit 70.  It will be AN, but I don't see this Bermuda high heat pump. 

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28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's why I replied "not so sure about that" to Kevin when he said we may hit 70.  It will be AN, but I don't see this Bermuda high heat pump. 

Yes, still too early to go all in on big heat for late next week. We wait. We look to see if modeling indeed heads in that real warm direction?

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3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

And suddenly … it’s stick  season. About 90% trees bare now. Some straggler Oaks .. nightmare leaf season winding down 

ujjQpwa.jpg

 

18 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I have more leaves than Kevin

image.jpeg

Good morning DIT/dendrite. My one oak and maple hold on tenaciously. As the NY inner city Autumn, every year, seems to get closer to Spring. Stay well, as always …

IMG_6876.jpeg

IMG_6877.jpeg

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