STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 It’s an episode of Jerry springer . Predictable as I said yesterday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 16 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: It’s an episode of Jerry springer . Predictable as I said yesterday It's so dumb. Accept the weather you get, it's the onmy weather you got. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 Meanwhile, SN/IP possible pike north late tomorrow night. Maybe into far nrn CT. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Meanwhile, SN/IP possible pike north late tomorrow night. Maybe into far nrn CT. ugh could be a fun ride to work leaving at 4am 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 In the last 20 Novies the averages are CON 2.0", ORH 1.8", BDL 1.1", PVD 0.7", BOS 0.4". Let's not rush the season. We just barely started getting 30s at night. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: ugh could be a fun ride to work leaving at 4am Actually it might be messy for sure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Meanwhile, SN/IP possible pike north late tomorrow night. Maybe into far nrn CT. There may be a heavier burst too of wintry precip...probably up near the MA/VT/NH border. I could see some spots, especially higher terrain getting a couple inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 Just now, weatherwiz said: There may be a heavier burst too of wintry precip...probably up near the MA/VT/NH border. I could see some spots, especially higher terrain getting a couple inches. It's a fronto finger. So wherever that sets up. NAM a little further north, HRRR south. GFS and Euro south too. Something to watch. A bit further SW temps aloft are warm. Kind of like a SWFE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's a fronto finger. So wherever that sets up. NAM a little further north, HRRR south. GFS and Euro south too. Something to watch. A bit further SW temps aloft are warm. Kind of like a SWFE. Yeah this does kind of resemble a SWFE. I was just looking at some soundings on the 12z NAM and this is some textbook sleet stuff EDIT: best guess precip type says freezing rain but ehhh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Actually it might be messy for sure. a few back roads until I get on rt2 and rt 202 hopefully they salt the crap out of things before i leave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 im guessing this would be more sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: im guessing this would be more sleet? That seems a little aggressive for ZR. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Meanwhile late month and early December I think has a chance of the guidance is correct. Extrapolating GEFS and EPS. Weeklies looked really nice for mid December and beyond too. I’m skeptical but nice look after a torch the first 10 days of the month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Weeklies looked really nice for mid December and beyond too. I’m skeptical but nice look after a torch the first 10 days of the month. That's strange that mine look so different from the 11-18 of December and stops there. It must improve after because it was ugly into mid month. Anyways not that it means a whole lot now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Yeah this does kind of resemble a SWFE. I was just looking at some soundings on the 12z NAM and this is some textbook sleet stuff EDIT: best guess precip type says freezing rain but ehhh Borderline there. That warm layer would probably completely melt all flakes and I don't think the cold layer is cold enough or deep enough to flip it back to IP. If you can knock that warm layer down a couple degC you may get some ice cores to survive back down into the cold layer. But that's just a snapshot in time with the WAA increasing aloft so there will probably be the typical transition zones. Maybe we can at least start encasing the bodies in S VT. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 If we are going to get any good chances in December it will come with a period where the PAC is rather favorable. I don't think we'll be getting Arctic support but that will change as winter progresses. That's a pretty decent look there...we may have to watch the N PAC for some potent storms which may help drive a brief, but favorable period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 One should expect a period in december where is going to be warm, Typical Nino, Don't know why some would be shocked by it, We could have bad luck the whole month even if there's a favorable period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 I still don't see this overwhelming Nino signal and we seem to be at the mercy of MJO passages. You can track all the WWBs all you want. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Borderline there. That warm layer would probably completely melt all flakes and I don't think the cold layer is cold enough or deep enough to flip it back to IP. If you can knock that warm layer down a couple degC you may get some ice cores to survive back down into the cold layer. But that's just a snapshot in time with the WAA increasing aloft so there will probably be the typical transition zones. Maybe we can at least start encasing the bodies in S VT. Yeah it is borderline...I was thinking too that precip rates could influence p-type there and whether that little dry slot would influence as well. Another factor to consider too is the NAM may be a bit tool cold at the sfc there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That's strange that mine look so different from the 11-18 of December and stops there. It must improve after because it was ugly into mid month. Anyways not that it means a whole lot now. Yeah it really improved on the 5-day mean after about 12/17 or so….here’s the 5-day trailing mean on 12/15…you can see it’s still ugly And then the end of the run is 12/22 5 day mean which is a lot better…the pacific looks really good by then with the Aleutian low, -EPO/+PNA split flow with STJ …but obviously grain of salt that far out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it really improved on the 5-day mean after about 12/17 or so….here’s the 5-day trailing mean on 12/15…you can see it’s still ugly And then the end of the run is 12/22 5 day mean which is a lot better…the pacific looks really good by then with the Aleutian low, -EPO/+PNA split flow with STJ …but obviously grain of salt that far out Yeah we take that. We'll see I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 Maybe this year our only good snow event will be 12/24-25 and the rest of the winter will be a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 im guessing they issue a advisory for tomorrow night... thinking 1 to 2 inches of snow some sleet and up to .10 of zr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 That almost kind of looks like December/January of 1929. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: That almost kind of looks like December/January of 1929. Did Ginxy say that? 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Did Ginxy say that? Where's he been? I was only kidding about the mushrooms. Maybe it was him... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: PoPo and spoons be fighting…winter must be coming. 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: It's so dumb. Accept the weather you get, it's the onmy weather you got. Of all four seasons, winter stands head and shoulders above the others as the dumbest. 32 minutes ago, dryslot said: One should expect a period in december where is going to be warm, Typical Nino, Don't know why some would be shocked by it, We could have bad luck the whole month even if there's a favorable period. Exactly. It could be warm but that doesn’t mean the whole month or season would be lost. All we need are legitimate windows. There were virtually none last year. Here at least. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 51 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Weeklies looked really nice for mid December and beyond too. I’m skeptical but nice look after a torch the first 10 days of the month. I'll take the early December warm hit any day, if it means a better pattern late month... I just hate looking out past two weeks this time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 its a long shot but the 12z GFS trended much better for next Monday even though everything is still well south.. GEFS and EPS has had some interesting members the last couple of days 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 Everybody please review your climo. Normal high today at CAR is 43. For ORH it is 51. For BOS it is 55. For BDL it is 55 and PVD 56. For BTV it is 50. Put the winter goggles aside for now. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now