Yesvember or November?

[cleetussnow]

[WxWatcher007]

3 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Boston snowfall , who has over , who has under . Line set @ 48”

I'd go under. No surprise.

[bwt3650]

Reality Check-

 

The first 15 will be average, maybe slightly below with some -10 departures in there.

The mets who know more than 90 percent of us have been calling for it to get milder mid month

Winter is 12 weeks long and we are still 6 weeks before it even starts

The average high for BOS is currently 55

A call for 70s on Thanksgiving day has as much a chance of verifying as the 12Z GFS 384 Op showing 30s for highs three days before T-day.

The entire month of November was not a torch as some advertised in mid October nor did any of my kids Halloween candy turn to diarrhea

 

[cleetussnow]

1 minute ago, cleetussnow said:

Which doesn't match this:

just throw darts i guess.

[qg_omega]

3 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Reality Check-

 

The first 15 will be average, maybe slightly below with some -10 departures in there.

The mets who know more than 90 percent of us have been calling for it to get milder mid month

Winter is 12 weeks long and we are still 6 weeks before it even starts

The average high for BOS is currently 55

A call for 70s on Thanksgiving day has as much a chance of verifying as the 12Z GFS 384 Op showing 30s for highs three days before T-day.

The entire month of November was not a torch as some advertised in mid October nor did any of my kids Halloween candy turn to diarrhea

 

Winter starts December 1st

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Boston snowfall , who has over , who has under . Line set @ 48”

Under. 20-25”

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

33 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Reality Check-

 

The first 15 will be average, maybe slightly below with some -10 departures in there.

The mets who know more than 90 percent of us have been calling for it to get milder mid month

Winter is 12 weeks long and we are still 6 weeks before it even starts

The average high for BOS is currently 55

A call for 70s on Thanksgiving day has as much a chance of verifying as the 12Z GFS 384 Op showing 30s for highs three days before T-day.

The entire month of November was not a torch as some advertised in mid October nor did any of my kids Halloween candy turn to diarrhea

 

Winter is like 2 weeks long over the last decade. Especially the last 5 or so. Hope for a good couple weeks.

[bwt3650]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Winter is like 2 weeks long over the last decade. Especially the last 5 or so. Hope for a good couple weeks.

over the last decade, 6 of the 10 winters  at BOS have had normal or above normal snowfall, including the all time record within that time period.  I would agree with you about a two week period last year, but your decade long assessment is not accurate.  I think you should raise your expectations to at least average this year.  

[HoarfrostHubb]

27 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Winter is like 2 weeks long over the last decade. Especially the last 5 or so. Hope for a good couple weeks.

Depends where you live. 

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, cleetussnow said:

Which doesn't match this:

just throw darts i guess.

Or just stick to the ens and not a d15 op

[Damage In Tolland]

Or deer and acorns 

https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1721190811361018221?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[dendrite]

Joe has never seen a signal that portends warmth and less snow.

[WxWatcher007]

45 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Under. 20-25”

I wouldn’t go that low. I do think the SNE areas that had a horrific last year are BN snow but much better off than recent years. 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Joe has never seen a signal that portends warmth and less snow.

Yet that never seems to trigger an objective brow raise amongst his constituency

[Typhoon Tip]

44 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

over the last decade, 6 of the 10 winters  at BOS have had normal or above normal snowfall, including the all time record within that time period.  I would agree with you about a two week period last year, but your decade long assessment is not accurate.  I think you should raise your expectations to at least average this year.  

Wait tho-

how does Boston having abv normal snowfall in 6 out of the last 10 years successfully abase what he said?

Just as an example, there’s a new climate signal for single event results that are so extreme that one or two of them in a season can push a location to or even exceeding seasonal normal. 

I guess it all matters snow total then?  I guess… for me if it’s 60° 80% of the time and you get two big snow storms that doesn’t cut it but that’s just me.

[Damage In Tolland]

Judas close to canceling …

https://x.com/judah47/status/1721250575449223425?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[bwt3650]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Wait tho-

how does Boston having abv normal snowfall in 6 out of the last 10 years successfully abase what he said?

Just as an example, there’s a new climate signal for single event results that are so extreme that one or two of them in a season can push a location to or even exceeding seasonal normal. 

I guess it all matters snow total then?  I guess… for me if it’s 60° 80% of the time and you get two big snow storms that doesn’t cut it but that’s just me.

Never a good idea to pick an argument with a weather genius...but here goes:

 

Average temp mean for BOS

Jan- 30

Feb-31.8

March-38.3

 

Years within 1 degree of average or below avg for the month during the last 10 years:

Jan-5

Feb-4

Mar-6

 

So my argument would be that half of that decade period featured average or below average temps and average or above normal snowfall.  I don't think you get those numbers with a decade that has only two weeks of winter per year.  Maybe snow cover days during the last decade would paint a better picture.  It does seem that we used to have longer periods of snow on the ground.  I just think that saying we've only had two weeks of winter each year over the past decade is him always leaning warm and negative toward winter.

[radarman]

15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Judas close to canceling …

https://x.com/judah47/status/1721250575449223425?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

Crazy that even he's abandoned the snowcover signal.  Because the snowcover signal was big.

[CoastalWx]

44 minutes ago, radarman said:

Crazy that even he's abandoned the snowcover signal.  Because the snowcover signal was big.

I feel good about winter now.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, bwt3650 said:

Never a good idea to pick an argument with a weather genius...but here goes:

 

Average temp mean for BOS

Jan- 30

Feb-31.8

March-38.3

 

Years within 1 degree of average or below avg for the month during the last 10 years:

Jan-5

Feb-4

Mar-6

 

So my argument would be that half of that decade period featured average or below average temps and average or above normal snowfall.  I don't think you get those numbers with a decade that has only two weeks of winter per year.  Maybe snow cover days during the last decade would paint a better picture.  It does seem that we used to have longer periods of snow on the ground.  I just think that saying we've only had two weeks of winter each year over the past decade is him always leaning warm and negative toward winter.

Well, what were the winters?  That's the whole point.

They were above normal temperature, with above normal snowfall - the latter by virtue of above normal precipitation in general. Within that frame, I was only advancing the possibility that the snow is skewed toward higher results because when it is/has snowing/ed, it's done so with greater deposition - it's [likely] part of CC that there is an increased frequency of observed single event hypertrophic results (synergistic heat, cold and precipitation are all empirically larger, world over, spanning that last 20 and particularly that last 10 years). 

Look, there probably was more to that discussion prior to my arrival - so it is what it is. But it should be easier now for one to imagine three weeks dumping 70 inches, and exceeding yearly snow total, even having a couple of cold waves embedded,. Those actually lie about the fact that the other 9 other weeks of DJF were pieces of shit.  Lol.  That's all. -little sarcasm, sure

just I'd also caution ... using a single location to characterize the region surrounding. Mm, that is mathematically false.  Doing so using Logan in particular? That is an especially poor location for characterizing southern New England.

He was saying the winters sucked because they were warm much of the time and were compressed into a shorter windows.  He's actually not entirely wrong based upon my own memory.  Winters N-NE of NYC's latitude aren't ever end to end, anyway.  I don't ever recall one in my decades of life.  The closest we've ever come was 1995-1996 and that one took a 40" snow pack down to field ponds and steaming snow banks in 10 days flat in the Hades of all thaws mid way through... 

That said, there's just not refuting that the warm periods have grown in length, while cool times have shrunk.   Snow has increased, but again ...the statistics kind of lie about the experience of it when the retention is twice as short, and there is more rain to go along with. 

 

[ineedsnow]

4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Wait tho-

how does Boston having abv normal snowfall in 6 out of the last 10 years successfully abase what he said?

Just as an example, there’s a new climate signal for single event results that are so extreme that one or two of them in a season can push a location to or even exceeding seasonal normal. 

I guess it all matters snow total then?  I guess… for me if it’s 60° 80% of the time and you get two big snow storms that doesn’t cut it but that’s just me.

That's pretty much what happened here last year

[CoastalWx]

I don’t really see anything glaring to me on seasonal guidance that indicates a rat for BOS. 

[NorEastermass128]

A solid 4-8” all snow event is going to feel like a KU to me this season. I’m tired of the changeovers slop fests. 

[Torch Tiger]

[powderfreak]

37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t really see anything glaring to me on seasonal guidance that indicates a rat for BOS. 

I feel like it’s hard to call for a rat any time climo is such that one big event or a two week run of snows can remove a location from rat status.

To what Tip said, snowfall seems to be more in singular large events recently rather than a sustained month(s) of consistent snows and winter.

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

It seems to me that there is going to be a increasing chance of ratters (relative to normal ) where the degrees of Gradual warming Had less wiggle room to work with to begin (especially coast line) 

 

that could be completely off but that is my general guess 
 

I wound also guess there will be greater chances to break monthly snowfall records across areas Of SNE 

more extremes 

I could be wrong 

[powderfreak]

7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

It seems to me that there is going to be a increasing chance of ratters (relative to normal ) where the degrees of Gradual warming Had less wiggle room to work with to begin (especially coast line) 

 

that could be completely off but that is my general guess 
 

I wound also guess there will be greater chances to break monthly snowfall records across areas Of SNE 

more extremes 

I could be wrong 

That’s where I’m at.  We lose some wiggle room but gain some precipitable water and have higher chances of singular large or impactful winter events.

Saw BTV posted this today.  Growing season getting longer, maybe that’s why Joe Bastardi notices fatter deer… more growing, more food.

 

[BrianW]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t really see anything glaring to me on seasonal guidance that indicates a rat for BOS. 

When do you think BOS has its first freeze?

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, BrianW said:

When do you think BOS has its first freeze?

Might be a chance on the 12 or 13?