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Yesvember or November?


Go Kart Mozart
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Yeah Scott...  We were just reminiscing about some yore -worthy NJ model low events and the GFS was apparently listening in.  Shave a half C off the thermal sounding and that's actually major hit in this depiction.  High pressure not in the worst position for this.  The attending 500 mb is in the process of amplifying so this particular interval below is about to get a jolt of dymamic forcing?  as is I wouldn't even discount this.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png

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wow that's a sweet system... Yeah, it's a bit handicapped by a slightly too warm thermal layout, but it goes from the high 990s mb all the way 975mb in 20 hours.   Bombogenesis nor'easter thrashing at the coast for several hours with wind and sideways cold rain. Marginality should be monitored inland.

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Might be two shots next week (including next weekend)...that first wave around 11/7-8 which looks more marginal (shows up as a cutter on the GGEM) but then behind that there is a distinct amplification of the western ridge showing up on both OP and ensemble runs which could put another threat into the 11/10-12 timeframe.

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26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Might be two shots next week (including next weekend)...that first wave around 11/7-8 which looks more marginal (shows up as a cutter on the GGEM) but then behind that there is a distinct amplification of the western ridge showing up on both OP and ensemble runs which could put another threat into the 11/10-12 timeframe.

And even if one of them does not work out, we have a shot for at least one event from 11/7-11/13 or so. At least as modeled.

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29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Might be two shots next week (including next weekend)...that first wave around 11/7-8 which looks more marginal (shows up as a cutter on the GGEM) but then behind that there is a distinct amplification of the western ridge showing up on both OP and ensemble runs which could put another threat into the 11/10-12 timeframe.

Primed. Love to see it. 

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17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Extended HRRR juices up a bit Wed aftn too. A local P&C sounding at 18z Wed was dam cold just off the deck.  Something to watch. 

Soundings have been looking better today for Wednesday....more moisture getting in here. I think there's a great chance for many to see first flakes.

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So…moving forward…we get another nice cold dump nicely signaled with some fun potential around d9-11 per ensembles and then the flow relaxes but it’s kind of heartening to see the thumb projection just north of AK.  It suggests we may reload again maybe around the 15-20th or so.  November is not shaping up warm by any means.

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50 minutes ago, weathafella said:

So…moving forward…we get another nice cold dump nicely signaled with some fun potential around d9-11 per ensembles and then the flow relaxes but it’s kind of heartening to see the thumb projection just north of AK.  It suggests we may reload again maybe around the 15-20th or so.  November is not shaping up warm by any means.

As good a look so far this month as you could ask for

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

They should absolutely be talking about widespread snow showers considering all guidance has it . They struggle immensely 

Maybe they should…but they have time, and they’ll wait another shift to see if it’s there again on the guidance, and if the idea strengthens/weakens. 

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1 hour ago, Spanks45 said:

That is some impressive cold air sitting to the north days 11-16 on the GFS. Hopefully it has a clue, definitely will be chances if that look sticks around as we head into that time frame.

Yes indeed.  Question for the LR guys....does this year's set-up resemble 1989 at all?

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