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Yesvember or November?


Go Kart Mozart
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Wednesday Night
A chance of freezing rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Northwest wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Thursday
Rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet likely. Cloudy, with a high near 40. East wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Thursday Night
Rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
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21 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Another world up there. Still low 50s here with a refreshing breeze. Classic fair weather fall day with leaves blowing around in the sun.

It’s funny because the ski area is largely E/NE aspect of Mansfield and it’s 100% the cold side.  Like winter, felt mid-20s.

But you can’t see really any other snow on neighboring hills.  Spruce Peak across the road bare to summit.

6C0FFB71-9A7D-4686-B9AF-564807D3CCC7.thumb.jpeg.bdf1d31efc0716ed10cd1d577ed22a71.jpeg

I popped out up top and into the sunshine and SW wind and it felt mild, like the temp went from 25F on the upper east slope to 35-40F out on the SW aspect.

Its easy to see why in the 1930s to 1950s they put the ski trails where they are lol.  Like walk around the mountain and they had to be like, why does that area appear much more wintry?  There’s always snow here, while not on that side over there.

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35 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Mild morning at 50F up here.

41.7 for a low this morning at sea level about 200 miles southeast of you.  

A relative of mine in Wolfeboro at 800' ASL is routinely 10ish degrees cooler than we are and gets significantly more snow.  We've been at the same temps or colder than him so far this fall which has stood out.  Don't think it necessarily means anything but it's a noticeable difference from the past few years.  

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46 minutes ago, Layman said:

41.7 for a low this morning at sea level about 200 miles southeast of you.  

A relative of mine in Wolfeboro at 800' ASL is routinely 10ish degrees cooler than we are and gets significantly more snow.  We've been at the same temps or colder than him so far this fall which has stood out.  Don't think it necessarily means anything but it's a noticeable difference from the past few years.  

Idk…it’s pretty common for Rockingham county to get some good rad cooling nights compared to Winni during the fall. At 800ft you start getting into that thermal belt too where any surface heat loss just drains downward into the valleys. We get some pesky cloudiness at times in NW flow too while further downwind toward your area they’re fully dissipated in the downslope. 
 

Anyway…41.0 this morn. 

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1 hour ago, Layman said:

41.7 for a low this morning at sea level about 200 miles southeast of you.  

A relative of mine in Wolfeboro at 800' ASL is routinely 10ish degrees cooler than we are and gets significantly more snow.  We've been at the same temps or colder than him so far this fall which has stood out.  Don't think it necessarily means anything but it's a noticeable difference from the past few years.  

Yeah it was also thick clouds and -RN this morning.  So we weren’t able to drop at all last night.

Looks like CON reported CLR until this morning and 40F.  It’s all about radiating ability this time of year.

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16 hours ago, powderfreak said:

It’s funny because the ski area is largely E/NE aspect of Mansfield and it’s 100% the cold side.  Like winter, felt mid-20s.

But you can’t see really any other snow on neighboring hills.  Spruce Peak across the road bare to summit.

I popped out up top and into the sunshine and SW wind and it felt mild, like the temp went from 25F on the upper east slope to 35-40F out on the SW aspect.

Its easy to see why in the 1930s to 1950s they put the ski trails where they are lol.  Like walk around the mountain and they had to be like, why does that area appear much more wintry?  There’s always snow here, while not on that side over there.

Sunday River and Sugarloaf also face in that general direction, Pleasant Mt as well.  Saddleback is the outlier, looking to the northwest; probably catches beaucoup upslope.


Slowly getting there on the Oak forest. Hopefully mainly all down over next 10 -14 days or so .

Your oaks look similar to the 2 big ones a couple hundred feet from the house.  I was sitting near those trees and also near 2 buck scrapes yesterday afternoon, hoping the wind would quit, but it continued to rustle those crispy brown things until after legal hunting time.  Other species are 99.99% sticks.

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53 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

lots of cold shots in there...is that the +PNA?  Seems like the Northeast stays chilly while the rest keep going mild.

Not entirely but doesn't hurt. 

The "cold loading pattern" for north America is really before that. When there is a ridging over the Berring Straight through the Alaskan sector,  directs a cold conveyor/delivery over the western semi arc of the polar domain, which dumps it down stream over western Canada ... Eventually is sprawls out across the continent. 

The PNA then moves toward +PNA mode ... completing the destiny -  which looks like this below.

image.png.5930f3cf0f80daf51597e31aadc4a0a4.png

You can get a sense by looking at this above, whatever cold air was erstwhile delivered over Canada, then gets directed south into the U.S.

That's more or less the idealized model. 

Above is a positive PNA look.  The typology of the +PNA layout is usually negative height anomalies N/NE of Hawaii, with downstream counter-balancing positive anomalies over western N/A.  Check. Somewhat intriguing considering that chart is 10 days to 2 weeks out in time, and these features are so coherent. That's not exactly hinted there.

Notwithstanding, 330 hours.  However, given success, that would probably be a stormy look - an assessment that comes down to  emerging in the positive direction.  It's getting more advanced in the discussion but when on that side of the evolution, fun stuff is more likely to take place. 

 

 

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