weatherwiz Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 1 minute ago, Lava Rock said: It's Nov 3rd and we're already blowing off Dec? why do people put any stock in LR models? I don't think it's just using models alone...maybe some are but much of it has to do with an understanding of the climatology behind EL Nino's along with how things are currently progressing. As Will highlighted in a few separate posts, it is typical for EL Nino December's to be on the warmer side but like he said that is not always the case. So what you want to do is understand why some EL Nino Decembers were warm and why some were cold. Will also highlighted last night the GOA vortex perhaps becoming established. This is something that could favor warmer as well, but this is dependent on where it is positioned, the structure, and even what's happening within the Arctic. I don't think anyone is guaranteeing a warm December, but climo should be respected until we are proven otherwise. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 5 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: It's Nov 3rd and we're already blowing off Dec? why do people put any stock in LR models? Isn’t it less LR and more typical Nino behavior? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Weeklies had a +PNA burst in late November during Tday week so you could see how if that didn’t break down quickly, you could open December on the colder side. It's something like this that could really open the window for a winter threat in that time frame. I suspect (at least through December) we will see chaos within the PNA domain which will result in bursts of +PNA and then into -PNA. This would keep things active and hopefully we can load some cold in with maybe some EPO support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 I think generally “it’s a long way away” is just a defense mechanism to protect against the likely reality. Nino Decembers tend to be warm, and there is nothing glaring that suggests that won’t be the case right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I think generally “it’s a long way away” is just a defense mechanism to protect against the likely reality. Nino Decembers tend to be warm, and there is nothing glaring that suggests that won’t be the case right now. Need a 128-495 paster for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 A reminder for the winter faithful Toxic positivity is the pressure to only display positive emotions, suppressing any negative emotions, feelings, reactions, or experiences. It invalidates human experience and can lead to trauma, isolation, and unhealthy coping mechanisms. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 Hey, where has Bob been(Baroclinic Zone)? He leave the board? Haven’t seen him post at all this late summer and autumn… 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 4 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: A reminder for the winter faithful Toxic positivity is the pressure to only display positive emotions, suppressing any negative emotions, feelings, reactions, or experiences. It invalidates human experience and can lead to trauma, isolation, and unhealthy coping mechanisms. I'm working on positive negativity this year. When someone says it will be AN, I'm going for historically (and hysterically) AN. This way we can confuse the weather demons into giving us just the opposite. On occasion, I'll get serious and listen to the real mets--who actually know what they are talking about. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 59 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I think generally “it’s a long way away” is just a defense mechanism to protect against the likely reality. Nino Decembers tend to be warm, and there is nothing glaring that suggests that won’t be the case right now. La Nina Decembers tend to be colder but that didn't work out the last 2 years. It's a crude rule, but probably doesn't work like 40% of the time. Also, at the end of the day, very few care whether the month was +2 or -1....they care if we got some good snow events....or even one well-timed snow event the week of Xmas or something. That's all 90+ percent of the posters care about. I can guarantee if we had a -1.5 December but a couple nasty cutters with little snow to show for it, the melts would be just as strong as if it was December 2022 all over again. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 52 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Hey, where has Bob been(Baroclinic Zone)? He leave the board? Haven’t seen him post at all this late summer and autumn… I think that's typical for him the last few winters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: Hey, where has Bob been(Baroclinic Zone)? He leave the board? Haven’t seen him post at all this late summer and autumn… He is rarely on anymore. I seem to recall him saying something about it a while back but I think he pops on if there is a good event. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 He gone 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 13 hours ago, powderfreak said: Had a classic November hunters vibe at sun down at 1500ft. Stick season, cold, with a skiff of snow. The forest had a very strong nostalgic vibe for how you envision November. Blair Witch vibe. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 CMC with a good snow event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 It’s 11/3. Everyone stay calm. Guidance is in flux now so where go past mid month is not entirely clear. Meanwhile not a bad look mid month on clown range GFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 13 minutes ago, weathafella said: It’s 11/3. Everyone stay calm. Guidance is in flux now so where go past mid month is not entirely clear. Meanwhile not a bad look mid month on clown range GFS. GFS was a weird run....sort of delayed the ridge rolling over and allowed a couple reinforcing cold shots through 11/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS was a weird run....sort of delayed the ridge rolling over and allowed a couple reinforcing cold shots through 11/16 We’ve seen that before. Hopefully it happens because it might shorten the mild up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 31 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: CMC with a good snow event I keep forgetting you moved to a weenie spot, looks ok for where you are now, not so much down here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 Seems the mild up is being pushed back on the latest runs. That's a different flavor then having the cold pushed back like we are used to. Hmm.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 3 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I think generally “it’s a long way away” is just a defense mechanism to protect against the likely reality. Nino Decembers tend to be warm, and there is nothing glaring that suggests that won’t be the case right now. Agree 100%. Especially se mass, expecting big snows in November and December is setting yourself up for disappointment. Especially with a strong nino in place, December climo isn’t favorable for us. That’s why I am not expecting any snow events here for at least the next 6 weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 4 hours ago, Lava Rock said: It's Nov 3rd and we're already blowing off Dec? why do people put any stock in LR models? Strong El Niño decembers typically aren’t favorable. That’s why we probably won’t know what this winter is truly made of until mid January or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 Just now, George001 said: Strong El Niño decembers typically aren’t favorable. That’s why we probably won’t know what this winter is truly made of until mid January or so. per usual, one can always throw away at least 1 full month of winter between dec-mar, at least up here. i'm still hopeful, but won't be surprised if it's mild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 17 minutes ago, George001 said: Strong El Niño decembers typically aren’t favorable. That’s why we probably won’t know what this winter is truly made of until mid January or so. The last strong El Niño had a December that was good. Even 1957 had a 12+ event in NJ on 12/5-per my memory EWR recorded 13.3. Not sure what happened here. And don’t forget all the snow in 1997. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 1 minute ago, weathafella said: The last strong El Niño had a December that was good. Even 1957 had a 12+ event in NJ on 12/5-per my memory EWR recorded 13.3. Not sure what happened here. There is a fairly long list of solid winter events occurring during the first 5 or 10 days of December regardless of ENSO state. The problem for hardcore winter snow pack lovers is that the snow cover rarely sticks around long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: The last strong El Niño had a December that was good. Even 1957 had a 12+ event in NJ on 12/5-per my memory EWR recorded 13.3. Not sure what happened here. And don’t forget all the snow in 1997. Dec '15 was a dud iirc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Dec '15 was a dud iirc. Super...not strong. Last strong was 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Super...not strong. Last strong was 2009 Oh I'm thinking he was talking upper echelon Ninos. Yeah 2009 was good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: Oh I'm thinking he was talking upper echelon Ninos. Yeah 2009 was good. Super or Strong Nino December snowfall at ORH: Strong: 1957: 2.2" 1965: 2.3" 1987: 12.9" 1991: 14.5" 2009: 20.7" Super: 1972: 13.8" 1982: 6.4" 1997: 22.3" 2015: 1.4" A mix of duds, average, and good months. But there are twice as many duds as "good" months, which makes sense given Nino climo. But OTOH, 5 out of 9 were average or better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: He gone Hope he’s okay…his home weather station hasn’t reported online since 9/23. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Hope he’s okay…his home weather station hasn’t reported online since 9/23. Ya…me too, he’s been gone a while. That’s why I brought him up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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