mreaves Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 1 hour ago, Lava Rock said: Crunchy snow and 30s on TDay is preferred Even here at elevation in northern VT, I think that’s at most a 50/50 shot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 43 minutes ago, George001 said: I am seeing a lot of storms on the models hitting the Pacific Northwest and then tracking west to east near the Canadian border. I am seeing some talk about potential for an early winter storm threat, but with that storm track I think it’s more likely we will be south and east of the low. That’s not a snowy storm track in the heart of winter, never mind in November. That is why I do not agree that we will have a snow threat in eastern mass over the next couple of weeks. I believe we will get more rain instead. The storm threat for us wound be late next week. I don’t see much else beyond that on the ensembles. We warm up mid-month….then beyond that is anyone’s guess at the moment. Weeklies today still have that PNA spike Tday week which looks stronger than last run so we could be chilly that week if it verifies…then it morphs into a big GOA low to start December which torches us for the first 10 days of the month before they reload the EPO/PNA ridging mid-December with split flow and STJ which would be a really nice look….but that’s the end of the run so really take with a grain of salt anything past week 3 or 4. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 Even here at elevation in northern VT, I think that’s at most a 50/50 shot. Buzz killSent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The storm threat for us wound be late next week. I don’t see much else beyond that on the ensembles. We warm up mid-month….then beyond that is anyone’s guess at the moment. Weeklies today still have that PNA spike Tday week which looks stronger than last run so we could be chilly that week if it verifies…then it morphs into a big GOA low to start December which torches us for the first 10 days of the month before they reload the EPO/PNA ridging mid-December with split flow and STJ which would be a really nice look….but that’s the end of the run so really take with a grain of salt anything past week 3 or 4. I think a lot too plays on where the core anomalies with the GOA are located. If we can keep those west, either over the Aleutians or just west and can get some Arctic support we may be able to avoid a torch here and at least see something that could favor interior. The one thing I at least like is I don’t think we are going to get porked at any point by the Arctic. There will be occasions where the PAC pork’s us but I think the evolution of the PAC through the winter will eventually be in our favor. I am tooting 57-58 hard 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 3, 2023 Author Share Posted November 3, 2023 I think the 18z GFS days 16-19 would be hilarious. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 6 hours ago, alex said: Still a dusting left in shaded areas from last night. Not bad for early novie Had a classic November hunters vibe at sun down at 1500ft. Stick season, cold, with a skiff of snow. The forest had a very strong nostalgic vibe for how you envision November. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 Wow,folks already hanging on to winter....you can feel that clinging. Bless their tiny little hearts"" 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 26 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Wow,folks already hanging on to winter....you can feel that clinging. Bless their tiny little hearts"" Just the nip. We love the taste. Barely below freezing at 30-31F locally, but WAA moving in from the west. Coldest air is wedged in to the east. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 11 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Just the nip. We love the taste. Barely below freezing at 30-31F locally, but WAA moving in from the west. Coldest air is wedged in to the east. Grab it while you can 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 Got down to 30.9 but clouds moved in and 35 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 Low of 29.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 looking forward to mid movember warmup . Next few days decent as well. Any Vail owned resorts blowing snow last couple nights? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 Great news ahead https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1720404367663120514?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Great news ahead https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1720404367663120514?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Winter canceled? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 Sorry if this has been discussed ad nauseam here....But, with all the talk of a pending warmup, why is there typically so much confidence put into it playing out? Are there elements to a warm air mass that allow it to dominate over other scenarios playing out? Is it due to being something that can be simply and easily verified (temp readings) and easy to track west to east? Also, another remedial question that's related: is there a standard time period for air masses and/or weather systems to travel across the globe? For example, if there are specific temps in Japan today, does that have any bearing on what our weather may/could be in X number of days? I know it's not this simple but am curious if this kind of thing plays into an overall look and evaluation of North American weather forecasts. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 56 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: looking forward to mid movember warmup . Next few days decent as well. Any Vail owned resorts blowing snow last couple nights? Not sure but WaWa was testing out their system yesterday. Prob won’t start for a couple of weeks to try to be open for Black Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 55 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Great news ahead https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1720404367663120514?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Yawn old news December was always going to be warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Yawn old news December was always going to be warm It’s not a given….long way off yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 12 hours ago, weatherwiz said: I think a lot too plays on where the core anomalies with the GOA are located. If we can keep those west, either over the Aleutians or just west and can get some Arctic support we may be able to avoid a torch here and at least see something that could favor interior. The one thing I at least like is I don’t think we are going to get porked at any point by the Arctic. There will be occasions where the PAC pork’s us but I think the evolution of the PAC through the winter will eventually be in our favor. I am tooting 57-58 hard Cosign, this is what I think, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 29 as I was driving to work..another freeze. Felt good. Looks like a gorgeous autumn day on tap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 40 minutes ago, Layman said: Sorry if this has been discussed ad nauseam here....But, with all the talk of a pending warmup, why is there typically so much confidence put into it playing out? Are there elements to a warm air mass that allow it to dominate over other scenarios playing out? Is it due to being something that can be simply and easily verified (temp readings) and easy to track west to east? Also, another remedial question that's related: is there a standard time period for air masses and/or weather systems to travel across the globe? For example, if there are specific temps in Japan today, does that have any bearing on what our weather may/could be in X number of days? I know it's not this simple but am curious if this kind of thing plays into an overall look and evaluation of North American weather forecasts. When you say warm up, how far ahead are you talking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: When you say warm up, how far ahead are you talking? The two date ranges I've seen mentioned are "mid-month November" and @ORH_wxman referenced the first 10 days of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 9 hours ago, Torch Tiger said: He's Mis-remembering that true winter weather doesn't usually start til near Christmas in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 1 minute ago, Layman said: The two date ranges I've seen mentioned are "mid-month November" and @ORH_wxman referenced the first 10 days of December. Mid-Nov is high confidence because it's not that far away and decent model agreement. Early Dec is way less confidence. Weeklies are warm there, but those change a lot when it's week 4 and beyond. El Nino climo would support a warm December....esp early December, but there are plenty of El Ninos that didn't follow that route. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Mid-Nov is high confidence because it's not that far away and decent model agreement. Early Dec is way less confidence. Weeklies are warm there, but those change a lot when it's week 4 and beyond. El Nino climo would support a warm December....esp early December, but there are plenty of El Ninos that didn't follow that route. Some out there think December might start cold but we’ll see. Definitely high confidence for mid Novie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 Is there anything specific to a warm airmass that inspires the confidence in it happening or could/would the confidence be the same with a cold/frigid airmass assuming all the model signs were equal? Kudos to all of you who do this for a living and dynamically reevaluate this data every few hours. It must be a career you're passionate about because I imagine it could get exhausting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 48 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Yawn old news December was always going to be warm It's Nov 3rd and we're already blowing off Dec? why do people put any stock in LR models? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Some out there think December might start cold but we’ll see. Definitely high confidence for mid Novie. Weeklies had a +PNA burst in late November during Tday week so you could see how if that didn’t break down quickly, you could open December on the colder side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now