radarman Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 At a distance you might think the abundant pines around Quabbin were badly affected by a fungus, because the tops are so brown. On closer inspection they're just loaded with cones. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: You typically like to see the below: 1. Consistency across multiple runs and the pattern doesn't get "pushed back". (e.g., if the 240 hour pattern shows up mostly the same two days later at 192 hours, then you have consistency) 2. Cross-model support. This is when different model suites agree with eachother. If a great pattern is shown on the Euro/EPS, but the GFS/GEFS don't show it, then confidence is lower. But if all the models are showing it, then you'll be a lot more confident. 3. Is the pattern supported by other variables? If a great east coast pattern is coinciding with tropical forcing around the dateline or a retrograding Scandinavian ridge, then we will also be a bit more confident. We call that "Constructive interference".....it's helping the pattern be good. When those other factors might be at odds with the good modeled pattern, we might worry that it won't materialize as good as models show....we will sometimes say "destructive interference" is causing problems with the pattern. Layman, Yeah what he said ^. Sorry I didn't back to you - it's officially shit month at work ( apparently. F!) The only thing I'd add is aspects like the trop. forcing and/or ridge placement that he's mentioned? - those are also changing in time. The models can error with those different regional mass-field influences. Which would of course then introduce error in how the main ridge and troughs ( the pattern ) ultimately situate. To help with some that, the ensemble means are used. They tend to be more reliable at outer time ranges, because by averaging all those solutions smooths out the individual aberration/oddities. But even this method can be screwy at times -the transition seasons can see wholesale 'redraws' at times. It's the major reason for error in the outer mid range ( D5-7) and extended. More often times a consensus in the guidance that seems to routinely materialize right around D4. In recent years, we've seen poor consensus among the models even 2 days ahead ... owing (probably) to the fast flow bias in the winter hemisphere's that's been observed over ~ 1.5 decades. This go of it was more subtle ... The N Pac was transiently lowering heights northeast of Hawaii - and still are really... This was creating more of a +PNAP ridge response downstream over W N/A Rockies in previous run cycles compared to 00z. That lent to more trough over the OV. "Constructive interference" - or perhaps less destructive works too. But last night the heights were made to be flatter over the western continent... and on and so on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 Thank you for the detailed replies, I appreciate it. I have the thinnest of grasps on interpreting weather model data but find the evolutionary process across our hemisphere and the globe fascinating. So many moving parts coalescing to a space and moment in time that's important to us, our region and our backyards - sometimes mundane, sometimes intense and dangerous but always interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: As far as any wintry threat, it's still far enough out to watch. The storm prior ended up warmer which may or may not have an effect to compress the flow a bit fore the next event. Your boy Margavage is on it ! https://x.com/meteomark/status/1720097507785744713?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 1 hour ago, dendrite said: They're never done. I see mosquitoes every Christmas eve. It’s like they tie the first dormant period from first freeze to 12/24 and the next one 1/3–spring thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Childude645 Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 It’s hard to believe .. but when I’m up there in winter .. there’s still a few municipalities living in the 80’s using sand We mostly sand on the Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 41 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Your boy Margavage is on it ! https://x.com/meteomark/status/1720097507785744713?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Megavaginage is an idiot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Your boy Margavage is on it ! https://x.com/meteomark/status/1720097507785744713?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg I must inform you that I see 12” of snow emerging from this noise https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=TSffz_bl6zo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Megavaginage is an idiot. About 16 out of 20 of those solutions produce little or no significant impacts across the locations he outlined!!! He also stated he sees a signal during a time frame that has been discussed for more than a week by many others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: I must inform you that I see 12” of snow emerging from this noise https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=TSffz_bl6zo A licky boom boom down 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 7 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Looks rather mundane overall after cold shot around Veterans Day. EPS has a GOAK trough, but some signs of an Aleutian low perhaps trying to build at the tail end of the run. That wouldn’t be a bad thing heading into late Monday and December. Already backing off on the cold, likely these were the coldest anomalies nationwide of the winter season 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 Nice look at the end of the 12z gfs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 Still a signal for some potential late next week....not favored, but worth keeping an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 Can't hate the 50/50 low there. Shift that ridge axis in the west slightly farther east and I'll throw some bets on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 Still a dusting left in shaded areas from last night. Not bad for early novie 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 2, 2023 Author Share Posted November 2, 2023 A little piggish around day 10 or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 Torch is coming mid and late month 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 3 hours ago, qg_omega said: Already backing off on the cold, likely these were the coldest anomalies nationwide of the winter season I see you’re on the same train as last year….now that’s funny. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 Torch is coming mid and late month Turkey Day in shorts?Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 Just now, Lava Rock said: Turkey Day in shorts? Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk And ya know what…that’s just fine. No need for frigid cold in November anyway. Let the second half of December cool down. That’s six weeks away…it can be mild all it wants for now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: And ya know what…that’s just fine. No need for frigid cold in November anyway. Let the second half of December cool down. That’s six weeks away…it can be mild all it wants for now. Wolfie I love you but it sounds like you are trying to convince yourself, ha. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 And ya know what…that’s just fine. No need for frigid cold in November anyway. Let the second half of December cool down. That’s six weeks away…it can be mild all it wants for now. IDK, I like cold around Tday as it feels like a preview to the upcoming winter. Crunchy snow and 30s on TDay is preferred Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 14 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Wolfie I love you but it sounds like you are trying to convince yourself, ha. Actually if I could order what I would want…I’d like 40 or so for a high on T Giving, but we already have it warm for the holiday in 3 weeks… so I’ll gladly sacrifice that for a colder second half of December when we will be much closer to our wheelhouse for winter weather….maybe that’s the better way to put it. No convincing, just bartering for something better later lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 Upper 80s in the Connecticut Valley on T day. Near 80 right up to the Canadian border. No need for further discussion. We are doomed. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Still a signal for some potential late next week....not favored, but worth keeping an eye on. It's the perils of progressive patterns. Error is much higher. Here's the deal, ... the GEFs PNA index end ups rising from -.5 to +.5 between now and Nov 15, doing so with surprisingly limited spread for both the time of year but just considering going all the way through week 2 in general. There's no "spike" there...just a gradual ascent. A pulse at some point along space and time signals enhanced restoring system potential. However, NJ model low and/or flat frontal wave type events take place beneath the large mass field perturbation. The restoring is triggered within smaller nested domain spaces below those larger scales. The PNA is so massive a domain space, a NJM wave eject, out of the eastern limb, could fit along a more gradual sloped ascent like that. . To be fair. The WPO/NPAC/EPO ... are sending warm signals. However, the +PNA/ +EPO correlation, particularly post -EPO bursts ( like last week) would tend to be colder look of N/A as the +PNA forces NW flow through the NW Territory - the negative EPO damage was already done. Which we are seeing. Check... So..it's not clear what the upstream N arc of the Pac has in mind or if may overwhelm. I think what we are seeing in the guidance is sensy 'giga' movement because of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 I am seeing a lot of storms on the models hitting the Pacific Northwest and then tracking west to east near the Canadian border. I am seeing some talk about potential for an early winter storm threat, but with that storm track I think it’s more likely we will be south and east of the low. That’s not a snowy storm track in the heart of winter, never mind in November. That is why I do not agree that we will have a snow threat in eastern mass over the next couple of weeks. I believe we will get more rain instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 36 here. Colder than last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 I guess there was a massive fireball right over Boston around 7PM The WHDH skyline camera caught it right as they were wrapping up there newscast I will see if I can put up a tweet. Or an X. Or whatever it is called now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 Here is the link. Assuming it doesn’t auto play https://x.com/bostongrl31/status/1720214995483476458?s=46&t=096JqkIpgJTvSWddnDYqdA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 Screenshot of it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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