Yesvember or November?

[dryslot]

22.8°F was the low this morning, Back to back low 20's the last two days.

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Dud Decembers seem to be gaining traction of being the norm no matter what ENSO state were in.

2020 and 2021 were very good Decembers from a snow standoint, but both were marred by ugly cutters ....at least 2019 did have a smaller snow event around 12/18 to give us a white Xmas.

[cardinalland]

first freeze in the new haven area. ice forming off all the plants made it almost look like it snowed a dusting 

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

'86-'87 was big over the interior around pike-northward...though heavily skewed by a monster January. The Cape got a monster blizzard in February that missed the rest of the region. I think BOS had something like 2" from that storm while parts of the cape had 30"+.

Your area was decent but wouldn't qualify as a monster that season. I think BDL had low 50s for snow IIRC?

That synopsis matches extremely well with how that winter progressed. You could see the pattern evolving for January would favor the interior and then come February favored more towards the coast/Cape. 

Actually looking at this season a bit deeper I probably shouldn't have been so quick to write it off as an analog

[Brian5671]

12 minutes ago, cardinalland said:

first freeze in the new haven area. ice forming off all the plants made it almost look like it snowed a dusting 

my kids thought it snowed last night with the thick frost

[dryslot]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

2020 and 2021 were very good Decembers from a snow standoint, but both were marred by ugly cutters ....at least 2019 did have a smaller snow event around 12/18 to give us a white Xmas.

The cutters in those years you mentioned wiped the slate clean where i thought we were off to the races, I think it was Christmas 2017 here where we got close to 12" of snow, I remember we almost had to postpone a family party that day but i remember going for a few hours before having to go home and snow blow the driveway.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The cutters in those years you mentioned wiped the slate clean where i thought we were off to the races, I think it was Christmas 2017 here where we got close to 12" of snow, I remember we almost had to postpone a family party that day but i remember going for a few hours before having to go home and snow blow the driveway.

That was a fun little event. Not a foot, but 3" in about 90 min and bitter cold after. 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That was a fun little event. Not a foot, but 3" in about 90 min and bitter cold after. 

Dec '17 was the last excellent December here in terms of sustaining cold and snowpack....we got like 7" on 12/9 and then never lost the pack until that mid-January 2018 monster cutter/thaw period....we had a couple of semi-mild 40-45ish days in mid-December that year but not enough to melt out the pack (very low sun angle FTW). Then we got another inch of snow and then ice on top of it on 12/22-23....then of course the 12/25 morning storm where we had about 6" here.

 

I don't expect anything similar this year...but I think an optimistic scenario might be something like we flip to a -AO/NAO pattern around mid-month and maybe can run into the holiday week at the end of the month with some legit threats.

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Definitely worry about some on here if winter sucks.

 

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Winter won’t suck…average winter incoming.  

 

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

There are likely to be some meltdowns in December if it goes classic El Niño climo. If we score a decent December though, then very good chance we’re off to the races. 
 

But a dud December would be favored. Even those very good mod/strong Nino years like 57-58, 65-66, and 86-87 all had dud Decembers. 

Average would be a win. I’ve already figured winter won’t start in earnest until mid to late January so there’s some runway for this winter, but I’m prepared to delete my account if I have to deal with the torture of watching this subforum breathlessly chase epic 10 day patterns again. Just can’t do it anymore. 

[WxWatcher007]

Low of 25.4°

Beautiful morning. 
 

 

 

 

[CoastalWx]

Somehow my tropical plants that I forgot to bring in are doing ok. 

[WinterWolf]

26 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

 

Average would be a win. I’ve already figured winter won’t start in earnest until mid to late January so there’s some runway for this winter, but I’m prepared to delete my account if I have to deal with the torture of watching this subforum breathlessly chase epic 10 day patterns again. Just can’t do it anymore. 

Agree Don. I would be checking out too for long periods if that were to happen.  But I’m cautiously optimistic for this season…sure there will be some not so good periods(there’s always those), but overall thinking it will be vastly improved over last years disaster. 

[kdxken]

Banner year for pine cones. Not sure if it's just my trees and they're stressed or if it's region-wide. Tamarack would know.

 

 

[wx2fish]

15 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Banner year for pine cones. Not sure if it's just my trees and they're stressed or if it's region-wide. Tamarack would know.

 

 

Similar around here in SNH. Pines are absolutely loaded 

[dendrite]

Yeah white pines have been nuts this year. I wonder if the late freeze or Feb cold gave them a signal to put out some extra seed cones this year. Maybe it’s just a cyclical thing. 

[weatherwiz]

I'm sure Isaac Newton would have much preferred a pine cone fall on his head than an apple. 

[Damage In Tolland]

I had 2 pine cones on the big white pine here. And none on the smaller ones. And a low acorn year. I did notice driving in and around Boston last week how loaded they were there . Glad we here 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I had 2 pine cones on the big white pine here. And none on the smaller ones. And a low acorn year. I did notice driving in and around Boston last week how loaded they were there . Glad we here 

Sounds like winter will be mild there.

[Layman]

7 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Similar around here in SNH. Pines are absolutely loaded 

Seacoast as well.  Red squirrels have been harvesting them from up on high, dropping them to the ground then scrambling off to who-knows-where with them.  

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Sounds like winter will be mild there.

Farmers lore says white pines loaded with cones .. winter blows bones.  Good luck out that way 

[mreaves]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Definitely worry about some on here if winter sucks.

Really?  That's the only reason you worry about them?

[Layman]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Wholesale change swept through the guidance.   Maybe the writing was on the wall?  Not sure... but the previous 0z cycle was 'strange,' before the 12z (yesterday) attempted to bring certain aspects back more coherently again.. The idea being, sometimes the scaffolding wobbles before it collapses.

Sensitivity appears to be the west and north Pacific handling.  This run made a significant move away from the AB(cold stormy N/A) to the AA (mild/ flat N/A) circulation mode. It's aggressive enough that it's sending opposing wave signs/negative aspects through a region Will and I were musing over ... forcing a positively tilting victim of destructive large-scale interference...  I suspect that is what Kevin's referring too.  Will an I were impressed with that structure in prior guidance etc.

Anyway, this is an interesting change for nerds..  That's an usually massive difference in/for one run.  We actually end up with a zonal flow/ridge compression over mid latitude continent out in time, and that could just as well be a prelude to warm up mid month.   Typically we meet continuity breaks with skepticism... but this change was the entire hemisphere from Japan to the Atlantic - what could change that much mass inertia, and just be a burp run?  I dunno here folks.  we'll see

I'm curious about something related to this overview:  In the past I've seen analysis of model runs where the confidence seems to be higher for a specific outcome that's 10-15 days out in time.  Are there factors that are recognized to reinforce the idea that "yes, this outcome seems likely to happen in 10 days time"?  What are some examples from prior storms/years?

Piggy-backing on that, my understanding is that (obviously) most 10-15 day outlooks have a low confidence associated with them.  From 0-100%, is there a typical level of confidence one maintains for a 10-15 days outlook?  What percentage would indicate a high confidence in an outcome that presents itself in this time range?

 

[CoastalWx]

I'm not sure I see this change? I've always felt mid month would get milder. 

[CoastalWx]

As far as any wintry threat, it's still far enough out to watch. The storm prior ended up warmer which may or may not have an effect to compress the flow a bit fore the next event. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Layman said:

I'm curious about something related to this overview:  In the past I've seen analysis of model runs where the confidence seems to be higher for a specific outcome that's 10-15 days out in time.  Are there factors that are recognized to reinforce the idea that "yes, this outcome seems likely to happen in 10 days time"?  What are some examples from prior storms/years?

Piggy-backing on that, my understanding is that (obviously) most 10-15 day outlooks have a low confidence associated with them.  From 0-100%, is there a typical level of confidence one maintains for a 10-15 days outlook?  What percentage would indicate a high confidence in an outcome that presents itself in this time range?

 

You typically like to see the below:

1. Consistency across multiple runs and the pattern doesn't get "pushed back". (e.g., if the 240 hour pattern shows up mostly the same two days later at 192 hours, then you have consistency)

2. Cross-model support. This is when different model suites agree with eachother. If a great pattern is shown on the Euro/EPS, but the GFS/GEFS don't show it, then confidence is lower. But if all the models are showing it, then you'll be a lot more confident.

3. Is the pattern supported by other variables? If a great east coast pattern is coinciding with tropical forcing around the dateline or a retrograding Scandinavian ridge, then we will also be a bit more confident. We call that "Constructive interference".....it's helping the pattern be good. When those other factors might be at odds with the good modeled pattern, we might worry that it won't materialize as good as models show....we will sometimes say "destructive interference" is causing problems with the pattern.

[weathafella]

Got down to 28 here.  Good bye bugs-I won’t miss you!

[dendrite]

22 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Got down to 28 here.  Good bye bugs-I won’t miss you!

They're never done. I see mosquitoes every Christmas eve.

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

22.8°F was the low this morning, Back to back low 20's the last two days.

21 here, a tic above yesterday but just as frosty.

2020 and 2021 were very good Decembers from a snow standoint, but both were marred by ugly cutters ....at least 2019 did have a smaller snow event around 12/18 to give us a white Xmas.

Both well below average here.  Last December had the 1st AN snow since 2017, with 95% of the total coming in the mid-month dump.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

Banner year for pine cones. Not sure if it's just my trees and they're stressed or if it's region-wide. Tamarack would know.

 

 

Hit or miss around here.  There are some loaded pines in the area but the ones on our woodlot, some of which are 120 feet tall, have very few.  The mild January plus the frigid blast in early February may have killed some of the overwintering 1st-year conelets.  (We've not had much if any of the needlecast fungus here.)

Trying to outguess tree seed production can be frustrating, except for balsam fir that seems always to have a bumper crop every 2nd year.  Way back in 1980 during the spruce budworm outbreak, I prescribed a shelterwood harvest on T14R13, one town east from where the Big Black joins the St. John.  All the moth-eaten fir was to go and also the worst-looking spruce, with healthier spruce and all of the superstory pine retained.  In July I saw a couple of those pines had been cut as part of roadbuilding, and they were stiff with 1/2" conelets, a great sign.  Then came the record February thaw - CAR temps nearly 15° AN - followed by cold and a mid-month blizzard in March.  Only a handful of those conelets survived and we postponed the harvest, switching to stands with little pine.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 hours ago, kdxken said:

Banner year for pine cones. Not sure if it's just my trees and they're stressed or if it's region-wide. Tamarack would know.

 

 

 

My trees are loaded too.