Yesvember or November?

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He had a dry month. Was hoping Will and Tip were right about end of week snower 

Still a ways off…they very well could be. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

26..everything dead and froze. This is not last year….we take. 

You’re right. Last year we had earlier frosts.

[CoastalWx]

Could be pretty mild Tuesday as hints of last year return. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

You’re right. Last year we had earlier frosts.

And it meant nothing…neither does this, but this isn’t last year..we will snow this year. 

[Spanks45]

21.6⁰ for the low....heavy frost

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Could be pretty mild Tuesday as hints of last year return. 

No hints…one day mild up is just fine. Nice try. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

No hints…one day mild up is just fine. Nice try. 

Will be 4 days. 

[CoastalWx]

Definitely worry about some on here if winter sucks.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

22.9

 

safe to say growing season is over here.

Car was frozen shut this morning from rain and drizzle yesterday 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Will be 4 days. 

60 plus won’t be 4 days…but whatever Shepherd of warmth. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Definitely worry about some on here if winter sucks.

Winter won’t suck…average winter incoming.  

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

No hints…one day mild up is just fine. Nice try. 

Looks mild overall moving towards mid month 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

So because we have a seasonably cool morning on November 2nd, that means this year won’t suck like last? What is the logic behind that? lol 

[CoastalWx]

I think Mitch had like 1.5” yesterday.

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

60 plus won’t be 4 days…but whatever Shepherd of warmth. 

We have 60+ for HFD Sat-Tues.

[Allsnow]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Could be pretty mild Tuesday as hints of last year return. 

Just can’t sustain a good look out west…story of the last few years 

[weatherwiz]

31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks rather mundane overall after cold shot around  Veterans Day. EPS has a GOAK trough, but some signs of an Aleutian low perhaps trying to build at the tail end of the run. That wouldn’t be a bad thing heading into late Monday and December. 

I think we will get an Aleutian Low to form at some point...not just because of it's climo with EL Nino but other factors too such as the trend with the PDO. We ay see instances where the Aleutian Low weakens but if we can get a nice Aleutian Low established that could help enhance potential for blocking as well. Interesting times ahead.

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Just can’t sustain a good look out west…story of the last few years 

i doubt that'll be the case this year. +PNA should be pretty well favored especially as after mid-Jan. there isn't much of a correlation to El Nino this early. we'd like to see the Aleutian Low develop once into the first few weeks of Dec

[weatherwiz]

But yeah definitely a several day mild stretch this weekend into Tuesday. I could see some spots Tuesday pushing 65-72.

[CoastalWx]

31.9. We below.

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Just can’t sustain a good look out west…story of the last few years 

I’m not bothered by it. I’m hoping it changes later in November and December for a time. 

[ORH_wxman]

Down to 28 on the hill. Some low to mid 20s though down lower when driving the oldest to school a while ago. Very heavy frost too, even up here. 

[Typhoon Tip]

45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Could be pretty mild Tuesday as hints of last year return. 

Wholesale change swept through the guidance.   Maybe the writing was on the wall?  Not sure... but the previous 0z cycle was 'strange,' before the 12z (yesterday) attempted to bring certain aspects back more coherently again.. The idea being, sometimes the scaffolding wobbles before it collapses.

Sensitivity appears to be the west and north Pacific handling.  This run made a significant move away from the AB(cold stormy N/A) to the AA (mild/ flat N/A) circulation mode. It's aggressive enough that it's sending opposing wave signs/negative aspects through a region Will and I were musing over ... forcing a positively tilting victim of destructive large-scale interference...  I suspect that is what Kevin's referring too.  Will an I were impressed with that structure in prior guidance etc.

Anyway, this is an interesting change for nerds..  That's an usually massive difference in/for one run.  We actually end up with a zonal flow/ridge compression over mid latitude continent out in time, and that could just as well be a prelude to warm up mid month.   Typically we meet continuity breaks with skepticism... but this change was the entire hemisphere from Japan to the Atlantic - what could change that much mass inertia, and just be a burp run?  I dunno here folks.  we'll see

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m not bothered by it. I’m hoping it changes later in November and December for a time. 

There are likely to be some meltdowns in December if it goes classic El Niño climo. If we score a decent December though, then very good chance we’re off to the races. 
 

But a dud December would be favored. Even those very good mod/strong Nino years like 57-58, 65-66, and 86-87 all had dud Decembers. 

[WinterWolf]

23 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

So because we have a seasonably cool morning on November 2nd, that means this year won’t suck like last? What is the logic behind that? lol 

This is below seasonably cool..but that’s not the logic Brett.  You have one speed….and that’s all Down all the time.  What makes you think it’s gonna be like last year? Persistence Forecasting? Law of averages, last year was the worst, I feel there are wholesale changes from last year already in the scene …so it will be different than last year, better.   Will we mild up, here and there, sure.  But it’s not last year all over again. Take it to the bank. 

[weatherwiz]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There are likely to be some meltdowns in December if it goes classic El Niño climo. If we score a decent December though, then very good chance we’re off to the races. 
 

But a dud December would be favored. Even those very good mod/strong Nino years like 57-58, 65-66, and 86-87 all had dud Decembers. 

57-58 was one of the years I heavily skewed towards in my winter outlook. 65-66 was in one of my lists but I eliminated that as it was near super strong category (or into). 

How was 86-87 in terms of snowfall? I had that as a wild card analog but I felt this winter would see more blocking than that winter.

[HimoorWx]

33 for my low in Randolph at 225 feet. We don't radiate here. No frost and not even a hint of ice on the birdbaths.

Sent from my SM-A546U using Tapatalk

[Hazey]

Finished with 3.7" (9cms). Not bad for the first shot of winter. Cold this morning with w/c and snow otg. Felt like legit January morning. Warm up this weekend.

[ORH_wxman]

28 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

57-58 was one of the years I heavily skewed towards in my winter outlook. 65-66 was in one of my lists but I eliminated that as it was near super strong category (or into). 

How was 86-87 in terms of snowfall? I had that as a wild card analog but I felt this winter would see more blocking than that winter.

'86-'87 was big over the interior around pike-northward...though heavily skewed by a monster January. The Cape got a monster blizzard in February that missed the rest of the region. I think BOS had something like 2" from that storm while parts of the cape had 30"+.

Your area was decent but wouldn't qualify as a monster that season. I think BDL had low 50s for snow IIRC?

[dryslot]

Dud Decembers seem to be gaining traction of being the norm no matter what ENSO state were in.