Lava Rock Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 Why give credence to the clown mapSent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 Ha, now 18z GFS smokes us with a different system Saturday night after Tday. Having a good happy hour today…I guess it is Friday after all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ha, now 18z GFS smokes us with a different system Saturday night after Tday. Having a good happy hour today…I guess it is Friday after all. Lol... You do get a sense the modeling is playing Russian Roulette winter storm game here... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 More terrible news . https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1725574545287926123?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ha, now 18z GFS smokes us with a different system Saturday night after Tday. Having a good happy hour today…I guess it is Friday after all. It did it at 12z too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 26 minutes ago, FXWX said: Lol... You do get a sense the modeling is playing Russian Roulette winter storm game here... I've been trying to explain to folks ( it likely comes off a little heavy handed but don't mean it to be - ) that there's a fair amount of amplitude signaled in the numerical telecon spread and behavior. There's a sequence of events in the spatial/synoptic coverage that fit the canonical relay between the -EPO --> relaxation --> into a +d(PNA). I suggest it's throwing some operational model versions into a tizzy. The former signals an intrinsic pattern change from the E-NE Pac arc downstream over the continent and well ... when have pattern changes ever been exceptionally well handled. I would take a step back from really taking any particular operational run very seriously in lieu of ensemble mean. I looked at the EPS and GEFs from 12z and saw reasonable continuity over prior runs. It's really the operational GGEM and GFS that are acting like the unmanned fire hose - but again ... I sort of give them a break at D6 when trying to assess through the inflection of a -EPO / rising PNA relay. My feeling is that a middling system that is moving fast reenters the GFS frames. I also want to caboose Will's sentiments about fast Novembers - that is particularly true when the NE Pac is trying to load Canada ...and once over true again anyway as an observed hemisphere during cold seasons, with increased frequency state over the last 10 to 15 years ( regardless of any longer term planetary indices, too). It's relevant to discourse because these systems are torpedoing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 More terrible news .https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1725574545287926123?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRgDude, have a beerSent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Dude, have a beer Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk Just sucks when modeled cold patterns vanish . Blows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 I also suspect we may deal with this whenever the -EPO pulses during ensuing months - the residual HC height dispersion from the south is just going to offer lingering resistance every time we tried to load colder heights S of the 50 N and we'll be sending B.C. wave to NS in 72 hours flat ... Perhaps not every time but a repeating theme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 Just sucks when modeled cold patterns vanish . Blows It'll come back....or it won't. Gonna be a good winter don't sweat itSent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 At least screamer for all is still there Rising temps likely later Tue night into Wed AM in response to a strong low level S-SE jet. Winds could become strong late Tue night/Wed in the warm sector, as NAEFS and EC ENS situational awareness tables offering anomalies of +2.5 to +3.0 associated low level jet, which is pretty high for this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 Nothing like a good Screamer 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 Who cares how the next few weeks verify? Lots of eye candy on the OPs, with system after system. It’s only mid November, we’re tracking, what more can you ask for? Trolls gonna troll 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Nothing like a good Screamer Nothing a pillow cant muffle, Oh, Yeah, Your talking weather. 1 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 Also while the OP gets drunker, GEFS continues to say look out mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just sucks when modeled cold patterns vanish . Blows You are too much. Once the models flip the other way... You'll be all in. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: At least screamer for all is still there Rising temps likely later Tue night into Wed AM in response to a strong low level S-SE jet. Winds could become strong late Tue night/Wed in the warm sector, as NAEFS and EC ENS situational awareness tables offering anomalies of +2.5 to +3.0 associated low level jet, which is pretty high for this time range. ICON screams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 11 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: ICON screams Can lead a gift horse to water, but can’t make em’ drink . 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 No scream 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 What a monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just sucks when modeled cold patterns vanish . Blows It's November 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Can lead a gift horse to water, but can’t make em’ drink . Beer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: It's November Soon it’s December 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Beer? A couple . You? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What a monster Are the in-laws supposed to be coming over to eat on Thursday? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Lol, would getting more than my entire winter ‘23 season in November qualify as regressing to the mean? I hope so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: More terrible news . https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1725574545287926123?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg This dude is hashtagging NatGas and energy while posting 2m temps from the day 7 op gfs. Is this amateur hour? 4 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: This dude is hashtagging NatGas and energy while posting 2m temps from the day 7 op gfs. Is this amateur hour? And why are we looking for a Plains cold dump in El Nino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: A couple . You? A few. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Soon it’s December With all that wind coming out of your mouth, now you have that screamer you've been praying for! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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