Yesvember or November?

[jbenedet]

Eh. This airmass is legit “cold” for the season. It’s just transient and poorly timed for snow-lovers.

 

Big cutter day 10. Congrats Illinois/Michigan.

Let’s get used to this. It will ease the pain later.

[jbenedet]

A shame the day 5 trough is hell-bent to pick up the TD in the Caribbean. Should that miss it would be in prime position for the subsequent trough around day 9 to make a close pass to our region.
 

Would make for some very fascinating weather to track; break the boredom. 

[brooklynwx99]

7 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Eh. This airmass is legit “cold” for the season. It’s just transient and poorly timed for snow-lovers.

 

Big cutter day 10. Congrats Illinois/Michigan.

Let’s get used to this. It will ease the pain later.

for December yes, but i wouldn’t expect cutter patterns as we head later into winter

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Eh. This airmass is legit “cold” for the season. It’s just transient and poorly timed for snow-lovers.

 

Big cutter day 10. Congrats Illinois/Michigan.

Let’s get used to this. It will ease the pain later.

LOL

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

for December yes, but i wouldn’t expect cutter patterns as we head later into winter

For November right now 

[CoastalWx]

The fake cold thing is just for fun. We kid.

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

A shame the day 5 trough is hell-bent to pick up the TD in the Caribbean. Should that miss it would be in prime position for the subsequent trough around day 9 to make a close pass to our region.
 

Would make for some very fascinating weather to track; break the boredom. 

Give me something. Anything.

[jbenedet]

11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

for December yes, but i wouldn’t expect cutter patterns as we head later into winter

I’ll let you guys conjecture on months out. I just don’t believe there’s enough skill to postulate.

There’s a sig El Niño on top of a warming local climate, and ++ SST anomalies in the GOM and Gulf of St Lawrence. Thats all happening now. No future tense here.

I think our best chance will be very late season after the snowpack in south central Canada sets the stage for some sig cold to offset these factors. That’s a back of the envelope guess. Obviously. 5 minutes worth of thought, so it ain’t worth shit. But again, if I had to guess.

 

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I’ll let you guys conjecture on months out. I just don’t believe there’s enough skill to postulate.

There’s a sig El Niño on top of a warming local climate, and ++ SST anomalies in the GOM and Gulf of St Lawrence. Thats all happening now. No future tense here.

I think our best chance will be very late season after the snowpack in south central Canada sets the stage for some sig cold to offset these factors.

 

i agree with that. it’s just that the main issue in stronger El Niños (if they do end up sucking) is that there are a lot of coastal storms with no cold air. that was 1997-98’s issue

[Typhoon Tip]

Nah ... it's more likely that GFS -type solution is put through the "model magnification lens" at this range, D10+

There's a modest mode transition -related signal with the upstream modulation going on over the E-NE Pac into western N/A toward the end of next week.  -EPO burst ( may or may not be very well spatially coherent in the layout, but is there in the numerical equivalencies) then relaying into a -1 to +1 d(PNA). 

So dumping some kind of Pac energy E of 100 W across the continent between D9 and 13 ( or so), isn't a terrible fit ...However, typically all guidance when first detecting those kind of favorable periods will first blow the charts away with a comet impact bomb.  The actual numeric teleconnections would support system of less magnitude, however.

So would watch that period for a flatter system of relative import ... rolling up underneath the predecessor D7 front/ frontal wave.

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The fake cold thing is just for fun. We kid.

What’s not fake is pulling into a parking lot and zero snow on any vehicle… but there’s that one car with snow on it.  This guy looks like he came from like 1500ft+.

[HoarfrostHubb]

The northern tier folks should be on the lookout for aurora tonight

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

The northern tier folks should be on the lookout for aurora tonight

Might be cloudy in the mtns. 

[tamarack]

3 hours ago, tunafish said:

We jelly

Shame it changed; might've set a new 24-hour record otherwise.

Perfect radiating night....34⁰ in town, 24⁰ here, just 5 minutes away....while I understand it is "fake" cold, my need to warm the house is definitely not fake

You know it's fake, I know it's fake, the battery in my pickup has no clue.

[Spanks45]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

The fake cold thing is just for fun. We kid.

I do wish it would work to our advantage when it comes to snowfall, but the complete opposite...I guess some extra ice in damming situations is a plus....

On another note, where is my sunny skies that everyone was forecasting for today?!?!? Cloudy with a few dots of blue skies is about all we have. Must be pretty cold aloft.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Spanks45 said:

I do wish it would work to our advantage when it comes to snowfall, but the complete opposite...I guess some extra ice in damming situations is a plus....

On another note, where is my sunny skies that everyone was forecasting for today?!?!? Cloudy with a few dots of blue skies is about all we have. Must be pretty cold aloft.

Been mostly sunny here so far.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

 Dry weekend . We take 

[Snowcrazed71]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

The fake cold thing is just for fun. We kid.

Fake news ;-)

[WxWatcher007]

An absolutely spectacular November day here. 

[metagraphica]

13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

An absolutely spectacular November day here. 

52 and brilliant blue sky.  Was a bit breezy earlier, but very very nice now.

[WxWatcher007]

Yup. Beautiful sky.

Happy Veteran’s Day to all that served. 

[radarman]

Let's get that cold to drop in a little faster on the euro for next weekend... I'll be on the cape...  hybrid tropical system is getting a tug back to the west that run

[CoastalWx]

27 minutes ago, radarman said:

Let's get that cold to drop in a little faster on the euro for next weekend... I'll be on the cape...  hybrid tropical system is getting a tug back to the west that run

Ha, it’s close to violence. 

[CoastalWx]

Nice day albeit a little chilly with the wind. 48 for the high.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Hoping today was my final leaf cleanup.   Bring on snow and ice please

[weathafella]

Man that’s quite the look long range on gefs and eps.

[rimetree]

Strange foliage year. My two Japanese maples still hanging on to most of their leaves...tulip poplar and cherry the same. The gingkoes haven't even changed yellow but the more mature ones in local shopping center lots have turned and started dropping. Of course, neighbor's Norway maple still with most of its leaves. Meanwhile, oaks nearby are progressing with active leaf drop.

[MJO812]

[powderfreak]

Nice wintry afternoon with scattered snow showers in the valley and mid-winter cold up on the mountain.

6” of dense sandy snow above 2500ft.

[WinterWolf]

55 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Man that’s quite the look long range on gefs and eps.

Nice that they both are agreeing on that too.