Yesvember or November?

[CoastalWx]

It's the same PAC as last December so not even sure that is a Nino look. Just had to laugh though. 

[powderfreak]

First real winter like day.  Leaving the office and trees are glistening in a light glaze, 2” of crusty snow and looks like the hotel pavers were turned on in the village, ha.

31F.

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

First real winter like day.  Leaving the office and trees are glistening in a light glaze, 2” of crusty snow and looks like the hotel pavers were turned on in the village, ha.

31F.

Still 1” depth here. Afternoon high was 32.5°. It was a winter day…not bad for 11/9.

[J Paul Gordon]

High of 36 Low 33. A raw November day here.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's the same PAC as last December so not even sure that is a Nino look. Just had to laugh though. 

Absolutely porked 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Absolutely porked 

Taste it

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Taste it

Weenies

[powderfreak]

16 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Still 1” depth here. Afternoon high was 32.5°. It was a winter day…not bad for 11/9.

Yeah same here.  Just got home, still covered but now with some grass blades poking through a wet inch.  Trees still got snow on them.  I’ll take it for the date.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

17 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Absolutely porked 

It would be fitting of the last decade plus that we don’t even get a true Nino look in December and it still blows anyway.

[brooklynwx99]

gotta love the pessimism on November 9th

[tamarack]

50 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

I have been in Drummondville, QC for work this week. It snowed moderately all day here. Probably accumulated about 2 inches. Nice wintry vibe. Really enjoying it before return to stick season. 

Probably stick season above 1"+ out your way.   Had 0.3" from 0.07" LE, all snow.  Still a few tiny white things falling, and I'm not sure (until 9 this evening) if the temp ever got past 32.

[tamarack]

50 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

I have been in Drummondville, QC for work this week. It snowed moderately all day here. Probably accumulated about 2 inches. Nice wintry vibe. Really enjoying it before return to stick season. 

Probably stick season above 1"+ out your way.   Had 0.3" from 0.07" LE, all snow.  Still a few tiny white things falling, and I'm not sure (until 9 this evening) if the temp ever got past 32.

[CoastalWx]

Got to 45 here now falling to 43. Awful day haha.

[Typhoon Tip]

While the Dec nino stuff is what it is, I'm not sure what we are seeing out of that product has much to do with ENSO to be frank.

I don't think even the RONI engineers fully grasp how disconnected these ENSO aspects are ...  I keep reading the MJO folk stating "El Nino base state" like we're already coupled up and good to go.  Are they just punching the f'ing clock?  

Put it this way, last year we generate an atmospheric river not once, but cyclically pulsing over the course of 40 some days, in a La Nina

Meanwhile there's fame taking about how well it was a coupled hemisphere.  Okay -

but if we're doing demonstratively UNcoupled aspects while we are supposedly coupled during a 3rd year of a historic negative run, what the f are we gonna do with a fledgling El Nino that if anything looks like it's weakening months before the predicted acme. 

This will be interesting... But I'm not sure a warm December won't just be a coincidental.  

Last year in October ...I recall a snarky prediction that the winter pattern would only look La Nina like when it happened to be differentiating through the La Nina base pattern climo but ultimately just being en route to some modal state that isn't very La Nina like.   That prediction was completely f'n nailed as far I as I'm concerned given that firehose off the midriff Pac latitudes. 

[brooklynwx99]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

While the Dec nino stuff is what it is, I'm not sure what we are seeing out of that product has much to do with ENSO to be frank.

I don't think even the RONI engineers fully grasp how disconnected these ENSO aspects are ...  I keep reading the MJO folk stating "El Nino base state" like we're already coupled up and good to go.  Are they just punching the f'ing clock?  

Put it this way, last year we generate an atmospheric river not once, but cyclically pulsing over the course of 40 some days, in a La Nina

Meanwhile there's fame taking about how well it was a coupled hemisphere.  Okay -

but if we're doing demonstratively UNcoupled aspects while we are supposedly coupled during a 3rd year of a historic negative run, what the f are we gonna do with a fledgling El Nino that if anything looks like it's weakening months before the predicted acme. 

This will be interesting... But I'm not sure a warm December won't just be a coincidental.  

Last year in October ...I recall a snarky prediction that the winter pattern would only look La Nina like when it happened to be differentiating through the La Nina base pattern climo but ultimately just being en route to some modal state that isn't very La Nina like.   That prediction was completely f'n nailed as far I as I'm concerned given that firehose off the midriff Pac latitudes. 

we could get the Goldilocks scenario where we get some Nina influence in December before Nino takes hold later in the winter

I don't think it's a coincidence that 2002 and 2009 started off hot in December after following two or three Nina years. there has to be some lag in there

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro weeklies today:

 

 

 

I was selling the blocky December crap.

[ORH_wxman]

14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

gotta love the pessimism on November 9th

Lol we’ve had meltdowns in here before because a D10 storm in mid-November fell apart when it got to day 7….it’s comical more than anything. I knew the weeklies would get a rise out of some so I posted all the pics. 
 

The funny part is many of the chronic complainers have still had a blockbuster storm or two in the past few years even if the winters weren’t great. There have been multiple periods in the past when you could go years and years or even over a decade without a big storm (say, 15”+) in large chunks of southern New England. 
 

The thing is…the 2000s and 2010s has gotten us to think we’re CNE snow climo now when in reality, that was likely just a couple of awesome decades that were due to regress. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, TheBudMan said:

@40/70 Benchmark when will the EasternMassWx winter outlook be released ?   weenies are rising to attention in anticipation 

Probably over the weekend at some point....had aimed for Friday, but the laptop catastrophe burned a lot of yesterday....updating a lot of graphics today. I think you guys will like it....conveyed my message in pretty unique way that a SNE weather weenie will appreciate.

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

we could get the Goldilocks scenario where we get some Nina influence in December before Nino takes hold later in the winter

I don't think it's a coincidence that 2002 and 2009 started off hot in December after following two or three Nina years. there has to be some lag in there

I don't doubt what your saying ... To be honest I alone (  I think ) have this notion that these classical longer term planetary indexes have been too disrupted by CC to be as reliant as before.

Been saying this for 15 years actually ... The RONI efforts are a start - but I think there are emergent indexes that are just new frontier, they are like non-linear, and they are there in this era of the CC manifold.  They may not be there given another 1.5 deg of holocaust (ha). 

So some hypothesis, duh. But something else is stealing the dependency/confidence - that's why we've been measuring wondering patterns and the sensible shenanigans that goes with it.

[Snowcrazed71]

30 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It would be fitting of the last decade plus that we don’t even get a true Nino look in December and it still blows anyway.

So is that your final answer

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol we’ve had meltdowns in here before because a D10 storm in mid-November fell apart when it got to day 7….it’s comical more than anything. I knew the weeklies would get a rise out of some so I posted all the pics. 
 

The funny part is many of the chronic complainers have still had a blockbuster storm or two in the past few years even if the winters weren’t great. There have been multiple periods in the past when you could go years and years or even over a decade without a big storm (say, 15”+) in large chunks of southern New England. 
 

The thing is…the 2000s and 2010s has gotten us to think we’re CNE snow climo now when in reality, that was likely just a couple of awesome decades that were due to regress. 

There’s definitely a hangover effect too from the past season.  Weather or sports even… have a fun season previously, people give a lot more latitude before going totally pessimistic.  Have a rough past season and that start of the next year is not getting any benefit of the doubt.

Like a pessimism hangover.

[Damage In Tolland]

As many here surmised. The very wet summer pattern has gone dry and should continue thru winter. 
https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1722744244329120000?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[Torch Tiger]

33 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

gotta love the pessimism on November 9th

tick-tock, it's already a lot of wasted time it could have been snowing. That's how I see it.  Every day is a blessed day when it doesn't snow/ice, and usually mid/late October is when that season begins here.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Got to 45 here now falling to 43. Awful day haha.

Had meter inspections to do in Fall River today. The facility is right on the Taunton River. Sheet drizzle and 40. It was awful.

[WinterWolf]

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol we’ve had meltdowns in here before because a D10 storm in mid-November fell apart when it got to day 7….it’s comical more than anything. I knew the weeklies would get a rise out of some so I posted all the pics. 
 

The funny part is many of the chronic complainers have still had a blockbuster storm or two in the past few years even if the winters weren’t great. There have been multiple periods in the past when you could go years and years or even over a decade without a big storm (say, 15”+) in large chunks of southern New England. 
 

The thing is…the 2000s and 2010s has gotten us to think we’re CNE snow climo now when in reality, that was likely just a couple of awesome decades that were due to regress. 

Wait though…we have TFlizz trying to push the narrative that the winters in SNE have sucked the last decade.  Lmao, that guy has zero clue.  What a complaining SALLY!  

[dryslot]

3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

No drinks near the laptop this time.

Years ago I spilled a 40 on my laptop. I also spilled Red Bull and Jager on I think the same laptop.

EDIT: Nevermind....I didn't spill those on laptops, I spilled them on a keyboard. I had desktop back then

The only places I've ever spilled these is down my throat, You need to be more responsible paul..............

[dryslot]

56 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Got to 45 here now falling to 43. Awful day haha.

Down to 28°F, If i would of cracked 40's i'd be pissed too, Made it to 32°F though so first day we stayed at freezing or below this season, It feels great.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Post the Dec weeklies

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

22 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Wait though…we have TFlizz trying to push the narrative that the winters in SNE have sucked the last decade.  Lmao, that guy has zero clue.  What a complaining SALLY!  

Everyone’s favorite wolf is triggered again. Sad!

[Lava Rock]

Down to 28°F, If i would of cracked 40's i'd be pissed too, Made it to 32°F though so first day we stayed at freezing or below this season, It feels great.

Lit the stove

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