Damage In Tolland Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 33 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: I’d say 10+F anomalies classify a torch. GEFS had 70% probs for 10+ anomalies. So it’s there especially next Thursday through Sunday. There is a 3-5 day window starting Friday or Saturday of temps in the 60’s to near 70. They can pretend they don’t see it or it’s not real.. but it’s there in guidance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 That signal for anomalous warmth the second half of next week is very real and I would say is quite high on the confidence level. When looking that far out and dealing with the potential for something rather anomalous, and in this case warmth, you want to look very closely what is going on across eastern Canada and the northwestern Atlantic northeast of Maine. In this case there doesn't seem to be any high to our northeast which would yield the potential for CAD and there is no high off to our north to dampen the rising heights. Looks pretty favorable for an anomalous S/SW llvl flow to become established well into eastern Canada as the week progresses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: That's climo. Avg Nov snow is due to the 1 out of 5 seasons you get a 4-6" event. AKA 2018. Exactly haha even December generally sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There is a 3-5 day window starting Friday or Saturday of temps in the 60’s to near 70. They can pretend they don’t see it or it’s not real.. but it’s there in guidance It won't be near 70 for 5 days. Calm down. 1 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It won't be near 70 for 5 days. Calm down. It was also T-day week that started this discussion. The warmup around 11/15-16 has been pretty well-advertised for over a week now. What happens after about 11/20 is the bigger question. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: I’d say 10+F anomalies classify a torch. GEFS had 70% probs for 10+ anomalies. So it’s there especially next Thursday through Sunday. I think 5+ for something like a monthly average is a torch but agree that daily anomalies 10+ is torchy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It was also T-day week that started this discussion. The warmup around 11/15-16 has been pretty well-advertised for over a week now. What happens after about 11/20 is the bigger question. Looks like it starts to change closer to T-Day or a bit sooner. Probably wouldn't rush it though. But it could be a messy warmer period depending where the high is and how any lows progress over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 And for the tropical watchers I’d just be wary of the GFS. Environment looks conducive but the GFS has a well documented false positive signal for Caribbean development. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 Certainly colder and a favorable pattern post the 3-5 day warm spell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Certainly colder and a favorable pattern post the 3-5 day warm spell. I mean are temps in the 60s near 11/20 going to cause people to lose sleep? LOL. Maybe one person. After-all, we may lose a winter month like November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I mean are temps in the 60s near 11/20 going to cause people to lose sleep? LOL. Maybe one person. After-all, we may lose a winter month like November. I remember the drifts in November 400 years before I was born….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 17 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: And for the tropical watchers I’d just be wary of the GFS. Environment looks conducive but the GFS has a well documented false positive signal for Caribbean development. it's a little bit sensitive as a guidance tool for 'CAG' -related emergence. GGEM used to be this way back in the day ...circa 2002 ( man that seems like yesterday and it was 21 years a-fuggin go).. But I've noticed these latter renditions of the GFS is 'sort of' the same way. The canonical Central American Gyre tends to muscle up in autumns as a normal climate feature, but the models spit TC and or hybrid circulations out of it more sensitively than actually happens. Then some years you get your Opals. I wonder if Sandy was a CAG cane? I think that was a late MDR wave but I'm not sure. So yeah.. for now I'm not really taking that seriously but will still reserve a place at the table in deference to climate. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: I remember the drifts in November 400 years before I was born….. I'm sure there were records from Chief Massasoit claiming snow burying totem poles. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'm sure there were records from Chief Massasoit claiming snow burying totem poles. First Thanksgiving was mild....you gotta wonder if the Pilgrams were throwing their crates and wagons against the rocks in anger. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 fwiw the 12z GEFS and GEPS don't send warm vibes post the 20th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: First Thanksgiving was mild....you gotta wonder if the Pilgrams were throwing their crates and wagons against the rocks in anger. Legend has it that William Bradford was a big weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 I had some IP this AM...joy. Back to writing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I had some IP this AM...joy. Back to writing. No drinks near the laptop this time. Years ago I spilled a 40 on my laptop. I also spilled Red Bull and Jager on I think the same laptop. EDIT: Nevermind....I didn't spill those on laptops, I spilled them on a keyboard. I had desktop back then 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 @40/70 Benchmark when will the EasternMassWx winter outlook be released ? weenies are rising to attention in anticipation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 Euro weeklies today: 2 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro weeklies today: honestly I'm fine with it... mod-strong ENSO Decembers are warm, so it's what should be expected anyway 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX-PA Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro weeklies today: A strong Nino..of course its going to be warm..no surprise by anybody who takes a realistic approach. Now that doesn't mean it can't snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: honestly I'm fine with it... mod-strong ENSO Decembers are warm, so it's what should be expected anyway ‘09 and ‘02 weren’t. But yeah it wouldn’t be surprising. They do start to look good closer to Xmas week but obviously anything beyond about 3 weeks is like throwing darts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro weeklies today: never gets old Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 Wish we could just FF to the summer at this point 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX-PA Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Wish we could just FF to the summer at this point lol..You got 4 months of winter ahead of you.And its only November 9th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: ‘09 and ‘02 weren’t. But yeah it wouldn’t be surprising. They do start to look good closer to Xmas week but obviously anything beyond about 3 weeks is like throwing darts yeah it won't be an abject torch with the propensity for AK ridging. i just think that most of the cold will be in the W US in December. if we get some blocking somehow, that's a different story. the weeklies are advertising a weak SPV so that may help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 2 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: I’d say 10+F anomalies classify a torch. GEFS had 70% probs for 10+ anomalies. So it’s there especially next Thursday through Sunday. GYX forecast goes out to next Thursday and has my town at 49/29 that day, which would be more like 47/25 at my frost pocket place. Normal here for 11/16 is 42/24 so that forecast would be +3. "Torch" varies by season of course. 10+ in July would certainly fit the term and might set some daily records. In January 10° AN might mean a big snowstorm here. IMO, Met winter torch threshold should be 20+, and maybe 15+ in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Wish we could just FF to the summer at this point Lol.. your a hoot. Wait to the first snowstorm event is happening. That'll be long forgotten in your mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 I have been in Drummondville, QC for work this week. It snowed moderately all day here. Probably accumulated about 2 inches. Nice wintry vibe. Really enjoying it before return to stick season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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