greenmtnwx Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 Nobody has any clue what the weather pattern will be like 3 weeks from now let alone this winter. I don’t care if you have a raging El Niño, a record La Niña or locusts and plague, all it takes is one favorable stubborn stretch of a pattern and you can do fine (or not). Your crystal ball is as good as mine. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 3 hours ago, WinterWolf said: Well, we had a couple days of record/near record cold in February last year…that should have killed any insects that were still hanging around no? I think you want more consistent cold. Nature is resilient. I’m just hoping for something closer to normal. Tired of the torches. 3 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: This will be well received lol If December blows its kinda like a football team hoping to go to the playoffs and losing the first Two games out of 17 DJFM. Name a fanbase that isn’t at each other’s throats after their team starts the season 0-4 lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 4 hours ago, qg_omega said: Well above normal looks likely for December why can’t you just have a reasonable take without going balls to the wall? i agree that Dec is likely +1-3, but why not just say that instead 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 44 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: why can’t you just have a reasonable take without going balls to the wall? i agree that Dec is likely +1-3, but why not just say that instead Because he’s a spoon…he stirs the pot. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 25 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Because he’s a spoon…he stirs the pot. 25 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Because he’s a spoon…he stirs the pot. He lives for this ... He just waits for the new season to stir the pot. Something is wrong with him, nothing was done last year and nothing will be done this year. Just need to laugh at the poor guy 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 5 hours ago, ineedsnow said: some of the EPS and GEFS members are interesting for next Monday Euro also 2 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said: He lives for this ... He just waits for the new season to stir the pot. Something is wrong with him, nothing was done last year and nothing will be done this year. Just need to laugh at the poor guy His brother is snowman19. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 8 hours ago, MJO812 said: Dude come on Weeklies we’re ugly into mid month. December definitely has a good chance of being hostile. There might be a window in the beginning of the month though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 5 hours ago, WinterWolf said: Because he’s a spoon…he stirs the pot. To be clear, he is most likely little spoon. 51°F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Weeklies we’re ugly into mid month. December definitely has a good chance of being hostile. There might be a window in the beginning of the month though. We know how he acts. December is usually warm in an El Nino Weeklies always change so grain of salt 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 11 minutes ago, tunafish said: To be clear, he is most likely little spoon. 51°F To be clear, he has a little spoon. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: To be clear, he has a little spoon. I don’t think he really cares that much -I mean it’s almost like shooting fish in a barrel - just constantly getting emotion out or folks and he doesn’t even have to try that that hard . Last year he was on a roll given how almost every 10-15 day prog warmed up as we got inside 7 days and he just went on parade weekly Saying how the warm anomaly’s would win out and how this And that 10-15 day prog was not Gonna verify and In reality **we were in a Very consistent pattern The models struggled with and usually corrected in the same direction over and over as SW heights were modeled to warm at day 10-15 out west and vice versa usually for SNE ** . I had never seen such a pattern where models were generally correcting one way for such a long period and that is not going to happen This year in all likelihood ** He sniffs out and preys on snow (or lack there of) fears and usually 90% of responses to him are due to irritation with the amount of snow folks have seen or are concerned will see . If people are bothered by December looking hostile he will get rolling lol 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 But I mean if we go by just the fact that an El Niño usually has a mild December…being we are 3 plus weeks from the start of December, and then there is 4 weeks of December, that means we are giving a prog of 7 weeks lol, and that’s just going on what can possibly happen in an elnino. And saying the weeklies looked hostile for December, when they usually can’t find their own ass at 4 weeks, is just throwing shit out there at this lead time. Sure it can happen, but it’s a guess at this range. But whatever… I mean why can’t we say that there are times we get a good snowstorm during the middle of December…that happens sometimes, so why not just say there’s a good chance December delivers a Major snow storm…cuz hey, it can happen, and the odds are with us for such an event… ? Because That’s kind of just throwing crap against the wall too, in the opposite direction. Point is, both of These are just guesses at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 16 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: But I mean if we go by just the fact that an El Niño usually has a mild December…being we are 3 plus weeks from the start of December, and then there is 4 weeks of December, that means we are giving a prog of 7 weeks lol, and that’s just going on what can possibly happen in an elnino. And saying the weeklies looked hostile for December, when they usually can’t find their own ass at 4 weeks, is just throwing shit out there at this lead time. Sure it can happen, but it’s a guess at this range. But whatever… I mean why can’t we say that there are times we get a good snowstorm during the middle of December…that happens sometimes, so why not just say there’s a good chance December delivers a Major snow storm…cuz hey, it can happen, and the odds are with us for such an event… ? Because That’s kind of just throwing crap against the wall too, in the opposite direction. Point is, both of These are just guesses at this point. It’s a guess but I feel pretty good about it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 Not sure why people get so defensive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Not sure why people get so defensive. It’s better than facing the truth I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 26 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: But I mean if we go by just the fact that an El Niño usually has a mild December…being we are 3 plus weeks from the start of December, and then there is 4 weeks of December, that means we are giving a prog of 7 weeks lol, and that’s just going on what can possibly happen in an elnino. And saying the weeklies looked hostile for December, when they usually can’t find their own ass at 4 weeks, is just throwing shit out there at this lead time. Sure it can happen, but it’s a guess at this range. But whatever… I mean why can’t we say that there are times we get a good snowstorm during the middle of December…that happens sometimes, so why not just say there’s a good chance December delivers a Major snow storm…cuz hey, it can happen, and the odds are with us for such an event… ? Because That’s kind of just throwing crap against the wall too, in the opposite direction. Point is, both of These are just guesses at this point. They aren’t guesses though. Strong Nino climo is well established that Decembers are generally hostile, especially in SNE. Talking about how far away it is is nothing more than a defense mechanism. It doesn’t change the Nino climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It’s better than facing the truth I guess I mean there is no truth since we don’t know technically. But climo and seasonal models hint at a month that isn’t great. It’s ok. Life goes on. Hopefully that early month window is something. I also don’t think this isn’t December 2015 either. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 Meanwhile late month and early December I think has a chance of the guidance is correct. Extrapolating GEFS and EPS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 Monday looks sunny and cool ahead of the late week and beyond extended furnace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 Warmth keeps getting delayed and pinched off in the medium range. Looking for positives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Monday looks sunny and cool ahead of the late week and beyond extended furnace Not until later in week and AN but not furnace. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 23 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It’s better than facing the truth I guess What f’n truth Brett??? What TRUTH? I mentioned that it could definitely be mild for December, but it’s still a guess at 7 weeks out till the end of December. Nobody is in denial..just stating it’s the distant future in the weather world. And No defense mechanism from me either.. but I’m certainly not writing off December on November 7th… you can all you want though. I mean you already said the last decade has been bad for winter in SNE..lol. Nothing could be further from that statement. 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 8 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: why can’t you just have a reasonable take without going balls to the wall? i agree that Dec is likely +1-3, but why not just say that instead 6 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said: He lives for this ... He just waits for the new season to stir the pot. Something is wrong with him, nothing was done last year and nothing will be done this year. Just need to laugh at the poor guy 1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I don’t think he really cares that much -I mean it’s almost like shooting fish in a barrel - just constantly getting emotion out or folks and he doesn’t even have to try that that hard . Last year he was on a roll given how almost every 10-15 day prog warmed up as we got inside 7 days and he just went on parade weekly Saying how the warm anomaly’s would win out and how this And that 10-15 day prog was not Gonna verify and In reality **we were in a Very consistent pattern The models struggled with and usually corrected in the same direction over and over as SW heights were modeled to warm at day 10-15 out west and vice versa usually for SNE ** . I had never seen such a pattern where models were generally correcting one way for such a long period and that is not going to happen This year in all likelihood ** He sniffs out and preys on snow (or lack there of) fears and usually 90% of responses to him are due to irritation with the amount of snow folks have seen or are concerned will see . If people are bothered by December looking hostile he will get rolling lol the ignore button is your friend. he is the only poster I have ever ignored here. he brings zero value to the forum. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 8 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: why can’t you just have a reasonable take without going balls to the wall? i agree that Dec is likely +1-3, but why not just say that instead Maybe they are thinking +5? +8? It's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 They aren’t guesses though. Strong Nino climo is well established that Decembers are generally hostile, especially in SNE. Talking about how far away it is is nothing more than a defense mechanism. It doesn’t change the Nino climo Loving snow and belonging to a weather forum, but always calling for warmth and an end to winter is a defense mechanism so as to never be disappointed.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Not until later in week and AN but not furnace. Couple days in that period will make a run at 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Couple days in that period will make a run at 70 Not so sure about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wokeupthisam Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 36 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: What f’n truth Brett??? What TRUTH? I mentioned that it could definitely be mild for December, but it’s still a guess at 7 weeks out till the end of December. Nobody is in denial..just stating it’s the distant future in the weather world. And No defense mechanism from me either.. but I’m certainly not writing off December on November 7th… you can all you want though. I mean you already said the last decade has been bad for winter in SNE..lol. Nothing could be further from that statement. LOL yeah I mean equating interpretations of a modeled atmosphere 30 days out as TRUTH is a bit beyond the pale to say the least. Educated guesses are informative and its interesting to watch how things unfold but anyone who's really paying attention can only conclude its silly to translate those into emotional stone even a week out, let alone 4... IIRC last year in November the forum was replete with guesses how what looked to be near-epic blocking should lead to lots of great chances in December 2022. People felt pretty good about those calls too, and with good rationale. The persistent badly placed trough out west took care of that handily, the nadir being what could have been an historic Christmas week blizz turning into one of the wettest warm windiest grinches I can remember. I feel good about wintry weather in December - because it's DECEMBER and that's when climo says those 'chances' begin to add up. And I'm ever-mindful that Lucy waits in the wings, hand on the football, ready to send us kicking to the ground in despair no matter what. Watching what's modeled, reading the informed analyses by many posters here, and then seeing how it all unfolds, is fascinating, as is watching the emotional investments made on long-range forecasts. Que sera, sera! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 9 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: why can’t you just have a reasonable take without going balls to the wall? i agree that Dec is likely +1-3, but why not just say that instead fair, I will take the over on +3 throughout the Northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 PoPo and spoons be fighting…winter must be coming. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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