Yesvember or November?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

20 minutes ago, BrianW said:

When do you think BOS has its first freeze?

Mid Jan 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

 

Watch this be the winter pattern 

[dendrite]

31 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Mid Jan 

What if the first is also the last?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, dendrite said:

What if the first is also the last?

Could be. Who knows 

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Mid Jan 

2025?

[WinterWolf]

8 hours ago, bwt3650 said:

over the last decade, 6 of the 10 winters  at BOS have had normal or above normal snowfall, including the all time record within that time period.  I would agree with you about a two week period last year, but your decade long assessment is not accurate.  I think you should raise your expectations to at least average this year.  

Don’t waste your time …he gone.  Constantly a depressed tone.  Winter hasn’t even started, 1st week of November not even completed, and the guy is moaning and whining.  
 

Ironically the guy has over performed in the snow department in his area the last decade constantly compared to average…yet still whining. It’s So old and pathetic at this point.  He gets one ratter(and it sure was last year) and now it’s a week or two of winter the last decade…what a bunch of total Bullshit.  

[CoastalWx]

7 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Don’t waste your time …he gone.  Constantly a depressed tone.  Winter hasn’t even started, 1st week of November not even completed, and the guy is moaning and whining.  
 

Ironically the guy has over performed in the snow department in his area the last decade constantly compared to average…yet still whining. It’s So old and pathetic at this point.  He gets one ratter(and it sure was last year) and now it’s a week or two of winter the last decade…what a bunch of total Bullshit.  

These kids were born into the winter  privileged time post 1993. Taste reality.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

7 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Don’t waste your time …he gone.  Constantly a depressed tone.  Winter hasn’t even started, 1st week of November not even completed, and the guy is moaning and whining.  
 

Ironically the guy has over performed in the snow department in his area the last decade constantly compared to average…yet still whining. It’s So old and pathetic at this point.  He gets one ratter(and it sure was last year) and now it’s a week or two of winter the last decade…what a bunch of total Bullshit.  

To be fair, it seems like you are the only one whining and bent out of shape.

Im just stating my thoughts. Maybe I’ll be wrong.

[UnitedWx]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

These kids were born into the winter  privileged time post 1993. Taste reality.

Exactly. Being over 50 now I forget many didn't have to suffer through most of the 80s and the first couple of the 90s, after having some nice winters the prior decade. Spoiled brats!

[WinterWolf]

4 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

To be fair, it seems like you are the only one whining and bent out of shape.

Im just stating my thoughts. Maybe I’ll be wrong.

I haven’t been paying close attention the last 5 days…so again you’re inaccurate.  But every time I pop in…you’re crying and whining. We give you proof of your inflated snowfall amounts over the last decade plus..and you still think somehow it’s been so bad the last 10 yrs.  It absolutely hasn’t. 
 

Believe Scooter and I when we tell you, you have no clue how bad the 80’s and early 90’s really were.  You have over achieved season after season there….so now when the last few yrs it’s toned down there, you think it’s so bad, but it isn’t.(yes last year was a complete Rat, agreed), but before that you were still overachieving most times the last decade. 

[CoastalWx]

53 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I haven’t been paying close attention the last 5 days…so again you’re inaccurate.  But every time I pop in…you’re crying and whining. We give you proof of your inflated snowfall amounts over the last decade plus..and you still think somehow it’s been so bad the last 10 yrs.  It absolutely hasn’t. 
 

Believe Scooter and I when we tell you, you have no clue how bad the 80’s and early 90’s really were.  You have over achieved season after season there….so now when the last few hrs it’s toned down there, you think it’s so bad, but it isn’t.(yes last year was a complete Rat, agreed), but before that you were still overachieving most times the last decade. 

Look at the coop nearby to him probably 5 miles away. Not a single year at 50” for the whole decade until 1992-1993. Imagine that. He has no idea. 
 

 

[MJO812]

10 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Watch this be the winter pattern 

It's November for crying out loud

[ORH_wxman]

45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Look at the coop nearby to him probably 5 miles away. Not a single year at 50” for the whole decade until 1992-1993. Imagine that. He has no idea. 
 

 

 

Regression is a b**ch.

[Typhoon Tip]

Not sure we should we bite ( ...heh, not ), but the telecon spread was subtly improved for winter enthusiasts out near and beyond the 20th+ 

Fwiw, the EPO is sagging in time. It's not like it's cratering or anything, but it goes from +1 to -1SD over 10 days.  Whilst the PNA, although mainly neutral is going from neutral-neg to neutral-pos. 

Some thoughts on that: When it comes to handling the EPO index, the declination is probably more important than how it gets there. Per my experience, I wouldn't be surprised if that slow gradated look is there for 2 or 3 days in the runs, and then suddenly we see it manifest with more coherency in the actual structure of the total synopsis.  We already had one 10 days ago (when we were in the 70s/near 80 that week).  So, it's not like it's unprecedented for this year/season to date... 

Also, some fun I noticed ... the 00z GFS and Euro were, in principle, agreeing on the D5-10 range. But the GGEM was not. The GGEM was setting the table for something wholly different and fun. Lingering albeit cold enough air mass drapes N of the Ohio River Valley throughout eastern Lakes and NE, while a strong N/stream punch of energy cores out a pathway over the Lakes - extrapolating precariously toward the upper M/A underneath said lingering albeit sufficiently cold enough air mass.  Oh man ...pleasy weezie with sugar on top.   Too bad it's like that day dreamer model in the class while the respected academics hash things out.   But, then the 06z GFS arrived with a pretty significant structural redress that hearkened to the 00z GGEM idea ... Not entirely, just hearkened. It turns the corner over the Lakes with a punch of S/W mechanics, toting along a decent shot of polar A/B air.  That's a like a tap on the shoulder after the class when out of sight of the rock stars, "Hey man, don't sweat it that the others were makin' fun of your idea back there - I understood what you meant. It's not impossible."

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Look at the coop nearby to him probably 5 miles away. Not a single year at 50” for the whole decade until 1992-1993. Imagine that. He has no idea. 
 

 

And that’s what’s so irritating about his complaining.  He’s done so well there for a long while…and good for him, I mean we all love the snow and storms, but he actually has nothing to complain about, other than last years disaster, which it was for winter guys like us.
 

He’s been killing it for more than a decade there, so it was bound to go in the other direction some, that’s what makes up the averages.  I think he’ll be near average this year and so will most of us…which will be a welcome change from last year.   Just be patient and let’s see how things progress over the next 4-6 weeks. 

[Layman]

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not sure we should we bite ( ...heh, not ), but the telecon spread was subtly improved for winter enthusiasts out near and beyond the 20th+ 

Fwiw, the EPO is sagging in time. It's not like it's cratering or anything, but it goes from +1 to -1SD over 10 days.  Whilst the PNA, although mainly neutral is going from neutral-neg to neutral-pos. 

Some thoughts on that: When it comes to handling the EPO index, the declination is probably more important than how it gets there. Per my experience, I wouldn't be surprised if that slow gradated look is there for 2 or 3 days in the runs, and then suddenly we see it manifest with more coherency in the actual structure of the total synopsis.  We already had one 10 days ago (when we were in the 70s/near 80 that week).  So, it's not like it's unprecedented for this year/season to date... 

Also, some fun I noticed ... the 00z GFS and Euro were, in principle, agreeing on the D5-10 range. But the GGEM was not. The GGEM was setting the table for something wholly different and fun. Lingering albeit cold enough air mass drapes N of the Ohio River Valley throughout eastern Lakes and NE, while a strong N/stream punch of energy cores out a pathway over the Lakes - extrapolating precariously toward the upper M/A underneath said lingering albeit sufficiently cold enough air mass.  Oh man ...pleasy weezie with sugar on top.   Too bad it's like day dreamer in the class while the respected academics hash things out.   But, then the 06z GFS arrived with a pretty significant structural redress that hearkened to the 00z GGEM idea ... Not entirely, just hearkened. It turns the corner over the Lakes with a punch of S/W mechanics, toting along a decent shot of polar A/B air.  That's a like a tap on the shoulder after the class when out of sight of the cool kids, "Hey man, don't sweat it that the others were makin' fun of your idea back there - I understood what you meant. It's not impossible."

As a general reader, I interpret the above to say there's a (very tiny) chance that a winter event could materialize over the coming 10-14ish day range if everything comes together as you were alluding to.  Assuming the underlying conditions that would prompt a winter-type event are reinforced in the coming days, is there a point in time, or are there specific conditions that lift confidence to a greater-than-50% chance?  Or is that simply not how it works in this realm?  Alternatively, is it simply that no matter how far or close in time we are to a potential weather event, there's the chance that the rug can always be pulled out from underneath?

Since we're entering winter, and we're looking toward winter/snow events, this particular line of question is relating to that however, I'm generally curious if these kinds of things hold true to all weather events or if the dynamics change based on seasons.  

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, Layman said:

As a general reader, I interpret the above to say there's a (very tiny) chance that a winter event could materialize over the coming 10-14ish day range if everything comes together as you were alluding to.  Assuming the underlying conditions that would prompt a winter-type event are reinforced in the coming days, is there a point in time, or are there specific conditions that lift confidence to a greater-than-50% chance?  Or is that simply not how it works in this realm?  Alternatively, is it simply that no matter how far or close in time we are to a potential weather event, there's the chance that the rug can always be pulled out from underneath?

Since we're entering winter, and we're looking toward winter/snow events, this particular line of question is relating to that however, I'm generally curious if these kinds of things hold true to all weather events or if the dynamics change based on seasons.  

Yeah, ...not sure if it were you or someone else asking the other day, but there was a similar question related to 'when-knowing,' or getting a feel for when to promote something out of mere noise, into the running of real chances. 

The same response here.  Primarily, consensus from multiple sources that shows or begin to show scenarios that look the same.  That's a big one.  Sometimes a seemingly innocuous single solitary ensemble member puts up some different idea than the going consensus, then another... Couple runs later, another and another add in. Then more collapse in favor of the new idea and a new consensus is born.  There's many ways that can materialize, but in general, just taking note of what the consensus is, that's where the confidence is.  Unless one possesses some sort of prescient gift of vision in said matters ... lol.

There's also trend awareness from two different facets - this can modulate the above (more advanced). One is related to the tenor of the pattern: 'Has the setting happened before/frequency therein?' etc.  The other is, 'Does the trend in question still fit into the pattern mode?' 

Those are little bit more abstract ... the latter one is particularly "artful" because the pattern mode can subtly vary while still technically or seemingly be in the same mode, but that subtle change represent physical influences in the background ... which questions the wisdom of trend reliance.

[CoastalWx]

GEFs definitely look more EPOish with the AK ridge. EPS sort of has a weak +PNA signal, but not before a lot of warmth exists across the US and Canada. Would take a little time to flush that out. 

[ineedsnow]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GEFs definitely look more EPOish with the AK ridge. EPS sort of has a weak +PNA signal, but not before a lot of warmth exists across the US and Canada. Would take a little time to flush that out. 

I think the end of November  early December could be fun until then maybe a minor event here and there... 

[weatherwiz]

What we have to watch for moving towards the end of the month into December are sneaky threats. I doubt we'll see any significant storm signals several-plus days out, however, there may be hints within the indices which could provide some clarity into these periods.

[Layman]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah, ...not sure if it were you are someone else asking the other day, but there was a similar question related to 'when-knowing,' or getting a feel for when to promote something out of mere noise, into the running of real chances. 

The same response here.  Primarily, consensus from multiple sources that shows or begin to show scenarios that look the same.  That's a big one.  Sometimes a seemingly innocuous single solitary ensemble member puts up some different idea than the going consensus, then another... Couple runs later, another and another add in. Then more collapse in favor of the new idea and a new consensus is born.  There's many ways that can materialize, but in general, just taking note of what the consensus is, that's where the confidence is.  Unless one possesses some sort of prescient gift of vision in said matters ... lol.

There's also trend awareness from two different facets - this can modulate the above (more advanced). One is related to the tenor of the pattern: 'Has the setting happened before/frequency therein?' etc.  The other is, 'Does the trend in question still fit into the pattern mode?' 

Those are little bit more abstract ... the latter one is particularly "artful" because the pattern mode can subtly vary while still technically or seemingly be in the same mode, but that subtle change represent physical influences in the background ... which questions the wisdom of trend reliance.

Thanks - I appreciate the details from you and anyone who's willing to answer my often remedial questions.  I deal with primarily black and white data where if X happens, Y is the outcome.  There's also lots of meaningful influence involved and when a trend happens, it's likely to continue until another known and obvious influence affects that trend and creates another highly likely outcome.  Weather and forecasting seem to deal with similar principles but dramatically more "gray" data and an infinite number of outside influences always working to impact an outcome.  

When people here say "it's going to be AN mid month on" or "rains to Maine", etc I'm curious where the conviction comes from to make those statements.  I realize that this being the internet, there's a lot of noise as you allude to, but aside from straight up trolling I imagine there are data points people see that reinforce an outcome they have a high level of confidence in.  Whether that's real and based on sound data, being puked out of a Maddoff inspired black box or completely made up out of the blue is interesting to me and where a lot of my questions come from.  At some point a forecaster has to commit to an outcome and share it with their audience (assuming that's what's called for in their realm of the profession) and that moment in time where the decision is made, with the data and experience available is where my highest interest is.  Simply because I find it "neat" and there's accountability, or should be, after that point to reflect on the decision, the reason for it and the outcome.  

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I think the end of November  early December could be fun until then maybe a minor event here and there... 

I could see that. Like Wednesday night into early Thursday. Maybe a little snow/ice in far nrn MA into VT/NH/ME.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I could see that. Like Wednesday night into early Thursday. Maybe a little snow/ice in far nrn MA into VT/NH/ME.

Next Monday could have some snow showers around too if that shortwave is deep enough.

[tamarack]

3 hours ago, UnitedWx said:

Exactly. Being over 50 now I forget many didn't have to suffer through most of the 80s and the first couple of the 90s, after having some nice winters the prior decade. Spoiled brats!

My earliest "snow awareness" (qualitive only) came during the early 1950s, a 6-winter stretch in which NYC never had a 20"+ winter (longest such streak in their 154-year POR) and NNJ wasn't much better.  We had a very small shrub, about 6", below the picture window, and during those winters it was fully covered just once.  March 1956 was a real revelation.

Bluebird morning here after a low 20s min.  Might sneak in some frozen this week, though nothing serious.  (Other than for drivers - Franklin County Sheriffs and towing companies were out straight in last Monday's slush.)

[weatherwiz]

It was actually disappointing we didn't get any fall severe weather threats this year. Actually I can't even remember the last time we have a severe setup...probably like August (gross). 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Layman said:

Thanks - I appreciate the details from you and anyone who's willing to answer my often remedial questions.  I deal with primarily black and white data where if X happens, Y is the outcome.  There's also lots of meaningful influence involved and when a trend happens, it's likely to continue until another known and obvious influence affects that trend and creates another highly likely outcome.  Weather and forecasting seem to deal with similar principles but dramatically more "gray" data and an infinite number of outside influences always working to impact an outcome.  

When people here say "it's going to be AN mid month on" or "rains to Maine", etc I'm curious where the conviction comes from to make those statements.  I realize that this being the internet, there's a lot of noise as you allude to, but aside from straight up trolling I imagine there are data points people see that reinforce an outcome they have a high level of confidence in.  Whether that's real and based on sound data, being puked out of a Maddoff inspired black box or completely made up out of the blue is interesting to me and where a lot of my questions come from.  At some point a forecaster has to commit to an outcome and share it with their audience (assuming that's what's called for in their realm of the profession) and that moment in time where the decision is made, with the data and experience available is where my highest interest is.  Simply because I find it "neat" and there's accountability, or should be, after that point to reflect on the decision, the reason for it and the outcome.  

Well some of that is hyperbole. I mean I think we know when it truly will be Rains to Maines. Get a strong low cutting into NY state, and that's going to happen. 

 

But to your point about calling for AN when there are 2-3 weeks left of a month...there is skill to that. We can look ahead at the model ensembles and have a good idea of what the pattern entails from a temperature standpoint. You look at features that stick out to determine warmer or cold regimes. For instance a ridge across the E/SE US usually means warm weather. A ridge across the west coast into western Canada would likely mean colder weather for us. I look for certain features when I make a call like that. It won't always work out, but usually if one of us mets say a BN or AN month...they see something and they aren't just passively throwing shit against the wall to see if it sticks.

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Next Monday could have some snow showers around too if that shortwave is deep enough.

Yeah maybe keep an eye on that. I see what you mean.

[tamarack]

13 hours ago, dendrite said:

What if the first is also the last?

On July 31, 1978 in Fort Kent, we had a light frost that damaged our cucurbits and wrecked the beans next door.  Last was first?  (Or were the frosts on June 16 last and August 24 first?)

Clouds beginning to spoil the pure blue.

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

GEFs definitely look more EPOish with the AK ridge. EPS sort of has a weak +PNA signal, but not before a lot of warmth exists across the US and Canada. Would take a little time to flush that out. 

the +EPO/+NAO pattern on the EPS matches up with most mod-strong Ninos... the hand wringing about this being the winter pattern by some is pretty ridiculous as Nov/Dec are usually quite warm here

[Spanks45]

13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the +EPO/+NAO pattern on the EPS matches up with most mod-strong Ninos... the hand wringing about this being the winter pattern by some is pretty ridiculous as Nov/Dec are usually quite warm here

That EPS does bring back terrible memories from last winter, I feel like that is what it looked like most of the time....I guess the hope is El Nino climo does take over