Yesvember or November?

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro has that system as well...but it's more of a front ender....regardless, something to watch....especially given the calendar date. Not many are expecting winter wx this early in the season.

I'm kinda of nice about it in Novie.   I don't expect much, either ... It's not like that winter anxiety we're denying on January 12th because of a so-far seasonal snow total of a whopping 5.4", while the models are urinating thaw patterns in the extended.
 

We got "blue" thickness within reach if not accessible, with an active pattern?  I'm good with that

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Got down to 32.8 at the height of the snow when the grass quickly whitened. Now back to 33.9. Cold first day of Novie. First snow and first freeze same day. Rarely happens that way here 

You got below 32?

[Typhoon Tip]

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro has that system as well...but it's more of a front ender....regardless, something to watch....especially given the calendar date. Not many are expecting winter wx this early in the season.

Definitely room in the Euro for that to come south.  The mid and upper level hemisphere through that synoptic period has a barrier vortex look over central/E Canada, and the Euro just from person experience over the years will often times overcome by attempting erroneous early phase.

[weatherwiz]

This is totally weenie range and just the GFS but you have to love it's evolution with respect to the northern Pacific and its response across the Arctic domain. One great note to see is not a strong PV (at least in terms of tropospheric PV). This is one reason I'm big on blocking scenarios this upcoming winter because with a rather robust EQBO already in place, it might be very difficult for the PV to become established and strengthen as we move through the Fall and into the early winter. 

Anyways, we see plenty of little PV lobes get dip south at times and what I really like are these height anomalies within the Arctic...core of the anomalies are right within the Arctic domain around the North Pole region and you can see the ridging building SE to NW into Greenland. We could get some periods of rather robust -AO/-NAO combo and when you throw in transitioning PNA's...big potential could loom early in the season. 

I do think we could be active early on then we may get a bit of a lull and boredom for a few weeks (which could freak some people out) but that is part of another cycle/transition, (or pattern reload). After that reload if blocking can become established and the norm it could be quite fun.

 

[ORH_wxman]

16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Definitely room in the Euro for that to come south.  The mid and upper level hemisphere through that synoptic period has a barrier vortex look over central/E Canada, and the Euro just from person experience over the years will often times overcome by attempting erroneous early phase.

Could probably count on one hand the number of times last winter we had legit BN airmass in SE Canada with a shortwave trying to amplify into it. 
 

Actually we might only need one or two fingers. It was that rare…we took it for granted for years….how many times did we get a mundane 4-8” front ender because we had a decent high and cold in place? Seemed like every winter it happened multiple times until the last couple where it was like trying to pull wisdom teeth. 

[Layman]

I'm starting to get concerned that I may not need to mow once more this month...

[ORH_wxman]

27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Definitely room in the Euro for that to come south.  The mid and upper level hemisphere through that synoptic period has a barrier vortex look over central/E Canada, and the Euro just from person experience over the years will often times overcome by attempting erroneous early phase.

Fwiw, here's the EPS mean....you can clearly see some synoptic support for a wintry threat

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You got below 32?

I will well before midnight 

[FXWX]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Fwiw, here's the EPS mean....you can clearly see some synoptic support for a wintry threat

 

 

Interesting in that this look is the look many of the seasonal model runs have painted for the Jan/Feb period?  While it's possible that it fails a bit given it's fighting mid fall temp Nov climo, but if this represents where the mid/late winter pattern wants to go, I'd jump all over it...

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Interesting in that this look is the look many of the seasonal model runs have painted for the Jan/Feb period?  While it's possible that it fails a bit given it's fighting mid fall temp Nov climo, but if this represents where the mid/late winter pattern wants to go, I'd jump all over it...

Yeah, if we kept getting that general look in winter, we'd have a blockbuster year. That's pretty classic synoptically for a New England threat.

I do expect that those higher heights down south will be replaced by lower heights as we get into winter and the El Nino STJ keeps juicing up....still some La Nina hangover going on right now.

[Spanks45]

Has an early winter chill to the evening...might just skip the 20s and go right to the real fake cold, 19⁰ by morning here?

Plenty of non accumulating snow on the 700ft hill, but even some flakes and a graupel shower down here in the valley. Not a bad day for November 1st...37.9⁰ already

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Funny all about wetbulbing. FIT is 47. 

It's also pretty cold all the way down to 2000 elevation, too. -0C at that level and -6 at 850 ( I think I saw but check that).  Anyway, fall rates don't have to be very heavy with a cryo altitude that low.  

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

This is totally weenie range and just the GFS but you have to love it's evolution with respect to the northern Pacific and its response across the Arctic domain. One great note to see is not a strong PV (at least in terms of tropospheric PV). This is one reason I'm big on blocking scenarios this upcoming winter because with a rather robust EQBO already in place, it might be very difficult for the PV to become established and strengthen as we move through the Fall and into the early winter. 

Anyways, we see plenty of little PV lobes get dip south at times and what I really like are these height anomalies within the Arctic...core of the anomalies are right within the Arctic domain around the North Pole region and you can see the ridging building SE to NW into Greenland. We could get some periods of rather robust -AO/-NAO combo and when you throw in transitioning PNA's...big potential could loom early in the season. 

I do think we could be active early on then we may get a bit of a lull and boredom for a few weeks (which could freak some people out) but that is part of another cycle/transition, (or pattern reload). After that reload if blocking can become established and the norm it could be quite fun.

 

Guaranteed a few individual members have majors M/A to shore NE given the morphology of that +PNAP trough amplitude over 300 hours there

[powderfreak]

Absolutely frigid leaving the office.  Wx station there said 27F gusting 20mph.

It was clear a hoodie was not going to cut it.

30.5F at home with -SN and whitening rooftops and mulch beds, ha.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Fwiw, here's the EPS mean....you can clearly see some synoptic support for a wintry threat

 

 

That is a f'n beautiful construct presage to a NJ Modeler dude.   wow -

I know I have been hitting that storm type rather hard as of late, but I think ( full disclosure) this is a ripe 10 days for those flat wave rapid detonators ... beginning this weekend and through next week.  Could be two of them ...  hell, go 1996 on dem bastards.   It doesn't take much when you have that ^, happening post a -5 SD EPO burst (last week) that collapses into a rising PNA like we're seeing spanning the totality of October 25 - Nov 10 - I mean IF that were to take place a month from now 

I said at the time, the only hold backs were the time of the year...   However, seeing this air mass snow so easily in CT... and having 0C lower than 925 mb with orb sun no less, got me bun-able today

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, FXWX said:

Interesting in that this look is the look many of the seasonal model runs have painted for the Jan/Feb period?  While it's possible that it fails a bit given it's fighting mid fall temp Nov climo, but if this represents where the mid/late winter pattern wants to go, I'd jump all over it...

Oh shit yes ... That's not the first time I've seen that sort of hemispheric scaffold like what he posted, from the GEFS/GEPS as well... 

Sometimes the autumn patterns don't parlay as well as they did in 1995 ... granted.  (obvious sarcasm). 

But if speaking what-ifs, agreed.  If we're doing this in the core I think a few locations would go a considerable distance toward fixing their apparent decadal snow fall deficits, up.

[Damage In Tolland]

I do agree that one late next week is likely going to snow for most of us .Has that synoptic look . Kind of thing most outlets and BOX will forecasts rain and 46 and then each day you’ll see temps come down until they admit it’s coming 2 days out and start going snow . Classic look 

[alex]

First legit snow tonight, big flakes accumulating easily. 31/17

[wxeyeNH]

33.8F Moderate snow squall.  We had a bit of sleet last Saturday morning but 2 snow showers today.  One earlier in the afternoon and this one now

[codfishsnowman]

Renegade rain shower just now! Ugh that will slicken things up by dawn.

[ineedsnow]

4 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

Renegade rain shower just now! Ugh that will slicken things up by dawn.

Hit a pretty good burst of snow on rt 202 about 30 minutes ago.. Sanders were out

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Hit a pretty good burst of snow on rt 202 about 30 minutes ago.. Sanders were out

lol.. no one sands these days other than Maine. Most states strictly salt .

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

lol.. no one sands these days other than Maine. Most states strictly salt .

Sands to maines?

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Sands to maines?

It’s hard to believe .. but when I’m up there in winter .. there’s still a few municipalities living in the 80’s using sand 

[ineedsnow]

40 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

lol.. no one sands these days other than Maine. Most states strictly salt .

Probably salt then lol 

[Lava Rock]

It’s hard to believe .. but when I’m up there in winter .. there’s still a few municipalities living in the 80’s using sand 

Much rather have sand. Salt is terrible for vehicles, causes indirect accidents with deer and is not eco friendly

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk

[HIPPYVALLEY]

The freezing fog tonight is a nice touch on a wintery Nov 1st. 

[Spanks45]

11 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The freezing fog tonight is a nice touch on a wintery Nov 1st. 

Already down to 29⁰ here, anything that was wet, is now frozen....

[dendrite]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s hard to believe .. but when I’m up there in winter .. there’s still a few municipalities living in the 80’s using sand 

Lots of sand here on the side roads.

[mreaves]

Just now, dendrite said:

Lots of sand here on the side roads.

Same here.