Go Kart Mozart Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 To start the month It seems we have a series of waves diving out of far eastern Siberia into the GOA. As long as they crest at the longitude of Kodiak Island or west, we would seem to have some weather of interest heading our way. If they crest up tight against Juneau....keep the mower handy! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 37 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: To start the month It seems we have a series of waves diving out of far eastern Siberia into the GOA. As long as they crest at the longitude of Kodiak Island or west, we would seem to have some weather of interest heading our way. If they crest up tight against Juneau....keep the mower handy! It’s not a bad way to look at it actually… … seems we are trying to establish a tendency to oscillate between a neutral and a negative EPO phase state. That high latitude “cresting” reflects that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 PNA looks neutral out there towards mid month though, but I’m not sure that’s going to matter as much ?if? the EPO does another negative burst - we could end up with something like a split flow under a cold Canada if/when that combination of telecon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 Eps looks pretty nice for the timeframe that the gfs has the storm . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: It’s not a bad way to look at it actually… … seems we are trying to establish a tendency to oscillate between a neutral and a negative EPO phase state. That high latitude “cresting” reflects that. I would do anything if we can keep a -epo going during winter in particular but fall is ok also. I still feel like we have both niña and niño currently but just imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Eps looks pretty nice for the timeframe that the gfs has the storm . Yep, modest cross-guidance support for cold. If we wanna get a snow event out of early November climatology, this look isn't a bad canvas. No promises of course - (edit: it's more the spatial orientation of the flow than it is in the numerical teleconnector - for now) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 1 hour ago, Itryatgolf70 said: I would do anything if we can keep a -epo going during winter in particular but fall is ok also. I still feel like we have both niña and niño currently but just imo. Other solid posters have been pushing that sentiment. Could be true ... Not to be contrarian but I suspect what's really going on is that there is too much attempt to see the present shenanigans of the system as ( coupled + assigning pattern order)/2 = both ways? Problem with that is, the atmospheric system moves like water in that it will always do so via the pathway of lowest resistance. creating NINO and NINA, simultaneously ... doesn't intuitively or logically seem to satisfy that. It's more like that there isn't much coupling at all and it may at times (thus) just look one way or the other. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 1 hour ago, Itryatgolf70 said: I would do anything if we can keep a -epo going during winter in particular but fall is ok also. I still feel like we have both niña and niño currently but just imo. Playing with fire with a -EPO though. Sometimes it’s EPOh-no because storms can cut west of us with a -EPO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yep, modest cross-guidance support for cold. If we wanna get a snow event out of early November climatology, this look isn't a bad canvas. No promises of course - (edit: it's more the spatial orientation of the flow than it is in the numerical teleconnector - for now) Split flow underneath a cold Canada and northern tier is showing up on a lot of medium/Long range guidance. Definitely some potential I think in that 11/8-11/12 window…the 11/1 threat looks just too compressed and SE to be able to make a late comeback, but I do like the chances of another model threat or two coming up, even if they don’t pan out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 Best thread title in a while. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Playing with fire with a -EPO though. Sometimes it’s EPOh-no because storms can cut west of us with a -EPO. After last year, I presume a cut can happen any pattern configuration. I know in unlikely to get it but honestly just a normal temp winter would be wonderful. I’m tired of torches. Warm maxes and warm lows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 48 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: After last year, I presume a cut can happen any pattern configuration. I know in unlikely to get it but honestly just a normal temp winter would be wonderful. I’m tired of torches. Warm maxes and warm lows. It depends exactly where the ridge axis is. If it’s on the ern side of the domain it can act more like a +PNA. But people get enamored because it delivers the cold shots, but you risk the cold dumping into the plains many times which puts us at risk for something cutting into NY state. Obviously I’d rather have that vs last years -PNA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It depends exactly where the ridge axis is. If it’s on the ern side of the domain it can act more like a +PNA. But people get enamored because it delivers the cold shots, but you risk the cold dumping into the plains many times which puts us at risk for something cutting into NY state. Obviously I’d rather have that vs last years -PNA. You could see this as a correction in the week leading up to the Buffalo Bomb last December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted October 30, 2023 Author Share Posted October 30, 2023 11 hours ago, powderfreak said: Best thread title in a while. Thanks. I was trying to stay away from using "torch" or "mow". Those are getting a bit hackneyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 10 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Thanks. I was trying to stay away from using "torch" or "mow". Those are getting a bit hackneyed. Who will start Dewcember? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 Zzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted October 30, 2023 Author Share Posted October 30, 2023 Fantasy Land, bit it beats a sharp stick in the eye: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 14 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Zzzzzz Its almost snow season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 10 hours ago, CoastalWx said: It depends exactly where the ridge axis is. If it’s on the ern side of the domain it can act more like a +PNA. But people get enamored because it delivers the cold shots, but you risk the cold dumping into the plains many times which puts us at risk for something cutting into NY state. Obviously I’d rather have that vs last years -PNA. I like seeing the PV pinned in SE Canada with blocking over the top. would like to see more of a +PNA instead of neutral/slightly negative but this could work 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 35 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I like seeing the PV pinned in SE Canada with blocking over the top. would like to see more of a +PNA instead of neutral/slightly negative but this could work Yeah, I’m just speaking in general regarding the EPO. Some seem to think it’s a lock for snow, but not always. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Zzzzzz There are some interesting pattern changes shaping up…so pay attention. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 Models come out earlier next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 Anyone know what this is? Saw it on my door this morning and have never seen one before here in CT. Looks like some leaf mimic I saw in the rain forest of Costa Rica? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 39 minutes ago, BrianW said: Anyone know what this is? Saw it on my door this morning and have never seen one before here in CT. Looks like some leaf mimic I saw in the rain forest of Costa Rica? Is that a katydid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 Still a chance some areas could see first flakes Wednesday with the s/w moving through. Some guidance has enough moisture combined with a weak inv trough to perhaps trigger a few ra/sn shwrs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Still a chance some areas could see first flakes Wednesday with the s/w moving through. Some guidance has enough moisture combined with a weak inv trough to perhaps trigger a few ra/sn shwrs. It's probably short concern for most but for me ... this NAM FOUS grid is clad for first entry into a snow atmosphere this season. Not bad - Maybe early snow -like synoptics in recent years has sort of muted the significance. Haha, they didn't seem to parlay very well into the ensuing winters. Obviously we know there's no real correlation other than noise but it was what it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 1 hour ago, DavisStraight said: Is that a katydid? Yes. A friend identified it as a Common True Katydid (formerly called Northern True Katydid). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 1 hour ago, DavisStraight said: Is that a katydid? That's what Dr. Google says it is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 1 minute ago, #NoPoles said: That's what Dr. Google says it is Pretty far north for one and first time seeing one here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted October 30, 2023 Author Share Posted October 30, 2023 I've heard of people referring the forum state as "crickets", but this time it really is crickets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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