Ji Posted November 4, 2023 Share Posted November 4, 2023 5 minutes ago, 87storms said: We're kinda due for a Tgiving snowstorm. last one was 1989 lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 4, 2023 Author Share Posted November 4, 2023 Definitely been signs of a stout +PNA possibly forming 5ish days before thanksgiving. Also looks like precipitation finally ramps up after mid month. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Definitely been signs of a stout +PNA possibly forming 5ish days before thanksgiving. Also looks like precipitation finally ramps up after mid month. Yea baby 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 Yesterday it was a -pna forecast through and through, and today half and half. The models are so volatile because of the ENSO/PDO battle that they really have no idea who’s going to win in the near term. Their guesses are as good as ours. Think this is what Chuck was alluding to - unusually volatile model forecasts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 2 hours ago, Ji said: last one was 1989 lol? Led to our coldest Dec on record, and a white Christmas. (At least that's what I wrote on an ornament I carved for my wife that year). Dang, we're old. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 Yesterday it was a -pna forecast through and through, and today half and half. The models are so volatile because of the ENSO/PDO battle that they really have no idea who’s going to win in the near term. Their guesses are as good as ours. Think this is what Chuck was alluding to - unusually volatile model forecasts.The pna has been showing up on tgiving week for several days now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 A positive PNA opens the door for cold air delivery, but the other indices are not favorable at least not yet. It is a good sign that the PNA wants to pop positive. Positive PNA was nonexistent last year and when it is strongly negative we learned the other indices really don't matter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 11 hours ago, Ji said: this might get interesting for Thanksgiving week Where's the cold in that pattern? +AO/NAO, neutral PNA. Looks like a mild Pacific air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 10 hours ago, Terpeast said: Yesterday it was a -pna forecast through and through, and today half and half. The models are so volatile because of the ENSO/PDO battle that they really have no idea who’s going to win in the near term. Their guesses are as good as ours. Think this is what Chuck was alluding to - unusually volatile model forecasts. A lot depends on the Pac jet strength/position of the exit region. Recent ens runs are digging a trough into the GoA just beyond mid month, but right at the end of the runs it seems to flatten and the PNA appears to trend positive. Definitely some volatility wrt the Pacific pattern. I have no expectations for November/early Dec other than seasonable weather, and we could use a little rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 Where's the cold in that pattern? +AO/NAO, neutral PNA. Looks like a mild Pacific air mass.The weeklies had a brief window for below. Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 13 hours ago, Ji said: last one was 1989 lol? No. We had a decent snow here right before Thanksgiving somewhere in the 2014-2015 range 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 WB 6Z GEFS temp anomalies, 17% run cold, let's see how it trends over the next week... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 56 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: No. We had a decent snow here right before Thanksgiving somewhere in the 2014-2015 range Had 5” here and lost power. My dad and I slept by the wood stove while my wife and kids and mom went to my mother-in-laws since their power stayed on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 If we are going to be in a cold/warm oscillating pattern then it can stay warm until early December then we can go cold mid Dec through mid January have our Jan thaw then February through March end with a bang. Im not a fan of October and November snows when it comes to what it means for the rest of winter but if it's the only snow we get then bring it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 WB EURO seasonal Nov. release....January and February look pretty good to me.... 16 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 ^ Yeah…Jan-Feb look really nice there. Based those maps, I’d love an early-December torch that ends with some chill and precip leading into a rocking early January followed by a late-month thaw and killer February. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 I'm game to sacrifice through Dec 10th then we flip the pattern. Just please no 75 degree Christmas torch this year. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 Potential for a good year is falling into place, but it will be a wild ride of model watching- look at the GFS temperature differences in the long range between WB 6Z and 12Z. In central NC about a 40 degree swing in one run.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: Potential for a good year is falling into place, but it will be a wild ride of model watching- look at the GFS temperature differences in the long range between WB 6Z and 12Z. In central NC about a 40 degree swing in one run.... The model run looks nothing like the last at hour 240+? Wow!!!! This happens all the time. Unless something is inside 120 this winter I ain’t even paying attention. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 5, 2023 Author Share Posted November 5, 2023 This is the kind of pattern that we should be seeing a lot more in the next 4-5 months. 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 On 11/4/2023 at 6:58 PM, WxUSAF said: Definitely been signs of a stout +PNA possibly forming 5ish days before thanksgiving. Also looks like precipitation finally ramps up after mid month. I was checking dry Oct/Nov periods and since 1950 all 5 combinations of Oct and Nov that were well below normal (<1.5" precip/month) were in Nina or negative neutral periods. So, it would certainly argue for an increase in precipitation later in the month. (1964, 1974, 1998, 2001, 2016 - winters were below normal precip and snow, but again, all Nina-like) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 6, 2023 Share Posted November 6, 2023 WB latest EURO weeklies, does not look like a torch at least leading up to Christmas...have a good week! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted November 6, 2023 Share Posted November 6, 2023 Zzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 6, 2023 Share Posted November 6, 2023 52 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Zzzz We'll have cold air but no precip this winter. Calling it now. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2023 Author Share Posted November 6, 2023 Weather looks incredibly boring for awhile. Generally warm and continued pretty dry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted November 6, 2023 Share Posted November 6, 2023 12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Weather looks incredibly boring for awhile. Generally warm and continued pretty dry. Yup. Kinda feel like that’ll be the story of the winter, but we will see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 6, 2023 Share Posted November 6, 2023 15 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Yup. Kinda feel like that’ll be the story of the winter, but we will see. I have to ask...why do you think that other than to gird yourself against potential disappointment? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 6, 2023 Share Posted November 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, mattie g said: I have to ask...why do you think that other than to gird yourself against potential disappointment? I think that drives many a negative post here...sarcastically negative to protect against disappointment. It's a natural mechanism (albeit not a healthy one) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 6, 2023 Share Posted November 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, mattie g said: I have to ask...why do you think that other than to gird yourself against potential disappointment? that is literally the only reason 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 6, 2023 Share Posted November 6, 2023 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: We'll have cold air but no precip this winter. Calling it now. That's quite un-Niño like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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