Eskimo Joe Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the CanSIPS has a great pattern for the back half of winter, which can be really exciting historically in El Niños. that’s about all that has to be said I'm not upset about the CanSIPS. There isn't anything that screams "well crap" to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I'm not upset about the CanSIPS. There isn't anything that screams "well crap" to me. not at all. that Feb-Mar pattern would deliver… cross polar flow, blocking, and split flow 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: not at all. that Feb-Mar pattern would deliver… cross polar flow, blocking, and split flow Yup. Some folks expect to see this classic KU pattern on 3 month climate forecasts and then get upset when they don't see it. It's kind of bizarre. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 Think a lot of people will be more excited when they compare cansips with last year’s h5 pattern 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 33 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Still a considerable step back. But it's not. The same general idea is there, which is what you should expect from a climate model. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said: Still a considerable step back. Too early for step back vocabulary, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 I'm like Mariah Carey on November 1. Almost time.... Ah, we can look at models at a reasonable time starting Sunday. See yall soon with shit posting, awful model pbp and just all around fuckery. 21 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 21 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'm like Mariah Carey on November 1. Almost time.... Ah, we can look at models at a reasonable time starting Sunday. See yall soon with shit posting, awful model pbp and just all around fuckery. Welcome back with all that dirty stuff. Next week gave me 15 inches in 1968, lets do it again! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 Westward migrating warm water for the upcoming winter. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 i mean, this is what last year’s CanSIPS at the same time showed for last DJF. like come on, this year is night and day 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 +NAO https://ibb.co/9V9VM4h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 43 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: i mean, this is what last year’s CanSIPS at the same time showed for last DJF. like come on, this year is night and day Looks like they did good last Winter. Even hit the Dec -NAO. I had 0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 4 hours ago, Chris78 said: What does December and January look like compared to October 1st update? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 It's November. Winter is less than a month away and there is a high probability of a moderate-strong El Nino. Probably time to put the seasonal models in the rearview mirror, and focus on the LR ensembles and the weeklies/extended products as the primary forecast tools. 16 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: i mean, this is what last year’s CanSIPS at the same time showed for last DJF. like come on, this year is night and day You have to say they hit the idea of the Aleutian ridge and there was troughing for the majority of the winter out west last winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 I would take this look a month from now. Still not quite cold enough for it to work out. And the gfs ends up squashing this storm. But that look would be tasty from mid December on. Even a little signal of CAD on that run as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 3 hours ago, stormtracker said: I'm like Mariah Carey on November 1. Almost time.... Ah, we can look at models at a reasonable time starting Sunday. See yall soon with shit posting, awful model pbp and just all around fuckery. So in other words, you look forward to a normal winter of posts in here! That's the one thing guaranteed, no matter how good or bad it is!!! I await the time we can dust off the "Jaws" music... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 1 hour ago, Itryatgolf70 said: You have to say they hit the idea of the Aleutian ridge and there was troughing for the majority of the winter out west last winter That is boilerplate Nina. Ofc there are always variations in the orientation/position of the ridge. Same can be said for a Nino- stands to reason the seasonal models will pick up on the more pronounced STJ with the tendency for lower pressure near the Aleutians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 5 hours ago, stormtracker said: I'm like Mariah Carey on November 1. Almost time.... Ah, we can look at models at a reasonable time starting Sunday. See yall soon with shit posting, awful model pbp and just all around fuckery. *cue Jaws music* 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 4, 2023 Share Posted November 4, 2023 WB latest EURO weeklies, look pretty good to me as we end the third week of December.... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 4, 2023 Share Posted November 4, 2023 6 hours ago, stormtracker said: I'm like Mariah Carey on November 1. Almost time.... Ah, we can look at models at a reasonable time starting Sunday. See yall soon with shit posting, awful model pbp and just all around fuckery. How am I just seeing the best forum post of the year! Oh right. I was drinking beer all day for a living. Looking forward to some winter fuckery!! LFG!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 4, 2023 Share Posted November 4, 2023 54 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB latest EURO weeklies, look pretty good to me as we end the third week of December.... 2nd image - thats a lot of snowpack! Cold air wont be an issue in jan-feb if that pans out 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted November 4, 2023 Share Posted November 4, 2023 I'm like Mariah Carey on November 1. Almost time.... Ah, we can look at models at a reasonable time starting Sunday. See yall soon with shit posting, awful model pbp and just all around fuckery. I’m looking forward to padding my ~6k posts chasing cartoppers that melt by 10am. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 4, 2023 Share Posted November 4, 2023 A note about the extended products(weeklies) as a useful tool- they initialize off the previous day's 0z ens run, so the current run is based on 'old' data, and ofc there is already significant uncertainty at day 15. Imo the weeklies are decent for gleaning general trends in the longwave pattern(over a few consecutive runs) maybe a week to 10 days further out from the end of the ensemble run. Snowfall maps 1000+ hours might be fun to look at, but those maps are already pretty useless beyond D7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 4, 2023 Share Posted November 4, 2023 A note about the extended products(weeklies) as a useful tool- they initialize off the previous day's 0z ens run, so the current run is based on 'old' data, and ofc there is already significant uncertainty at day 15. Imo the weeklies are decent for gleaning general trends in the longwave pattern(over a few consecutive runs) maybe a week to 10 days further out from the end of the ensemble run. Snowfall maps 1000+ hours might be fun to look at, but those maps are already pretty useless beyond D7.I don’t think a 1000 hour snowmap is fun to look at when it only shows is 1-2 inches of snow 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 4, 2023 Share Posted November 4, 2023 I like seeing snow cover building in our cold source regions to the North in the weeklies, that is good to see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 4, 2023 Share Posted November 4, 2023 WB 0Z EPS teleconnections. No strong signals here, except I like the trend toward a positive PNA toward end of run around the 16th. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted November 4, 2023 Share Posted November 4, 2023 23 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: +NAO https://ibb.co/9V9VM4h Going back to the LR model accuracy that I was talking about before, now we have a colder pattern modeled, and a pretty strong +pna too. https://ibb.co/F8zkzqk Since this El Nino began, The LR GFS ensembles has been in flux more than I've ever seen before in the last 5-10 years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 4, 2023 Share Posted November 4, 2023 this might get interesting for Thanksgiving week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted November 4, 2023 Share Posted November 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ji said: this might get interesting for Thanksgiving week We're kinda due for a Tgiving snowstorm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now