November Mid/Long Range Discussion

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Do you remember last December? That might’ve been my worst month of this forum, period. Everyone was in.

That was absolutely terrible. We had this wonderful cold blast that lasted a whole 72 hours. Then total muck the rest of the winter. 

[WhiteoutMD]

DT says not a real -nao Look at this post on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/share/fPG5AWCJRsQJBhin/?mibextid=WC7FNe


.

[Maestrobjwa]

10 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said:

DT says not a real -nao Look at this post on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/share/fPG5AWCJRsQJBhin/?mibextid=WC7FNe


.

Maybe a little bit easier to share it straight from Twitter:

 

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Maybe a little bit easier to share it straight from Twitter:

 

Welp going to be a huge snowy period then. lol 

[AtlanticWx]

29 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That was absolutely terrible. We had this wonderful cold blast that lasted a whole 72 hours. Then total muck the rest of the winter. 

i think that's where the negativity around this pattern comes from. lots of deja vu especially bc the pattern looks really good around this time last year

[Weather Will]

Latest WB weeklies still look good for December.

[Eskimo Joe]

Really important that we keep the west coast ridge and the trough stays out in the Alleutians. We don't want that stacking up near the coast and flooding the CONUS with a modified Pacific arimass.

[Ji]

Just for fun, the Black Friday edition of the Euro Weeklies for late Dec, centered on Xmas.

Are the weeklies out now daily?

[MJO812]

Just now, Ji said:

Are the weeklies out now daily?

Yes

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

Are the weeklies out now daily?

Yeah its the same as the extended runs now on the GEFS.

[Ji]

Wait are you really descended from Eskimos?

Did you see pm?

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Ji said:

Did you see pm?

Yes - forgot to respond my bad. Will look at it in a bit

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

The oddity is the trajectory of the low track . It's essentially an Albert Clipper. Not so common in early Dec. EJ is correct though. 50-50 low. HP to the west over the GLs- results in a nice feed of cold from the north into the storm. -NAO forces the low to track to our south.

This. Not sure how much faith I’d put in an OV low transfer to the Carolina coast. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, AtlanticWx said:

i think that's where the negativity around this pattern comes from. lots of deja vu especially bc the pattern looks really good around this time last year

Last year might have been too much of a good thing. I remember that mega NAO block. The -SD that kept appearing on the ens means didn't have 'reds in the right spots'  ....we had magenta blob all across the NAO region. Most of the forum thought we couldn't fail with those looks up top. All that yielded was an avocado +SD PV forced under that block which overwhelmed the pattern. The -PNA didn't help either.

[Weather Will]

Any met comment on DT's thoughts on the -NAO in early Dec?  ( that is not really a -NAO?)

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Any met comment on DT's thoughts on the -NAO in early Dec?  ( that is not really a -NAO?)

I skimmed through. I think he’s splitting hairs. Would have to read it again with fresh eyes though 

[psuhoffman]

4 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

so people like myself, @griteater, @40/70 Benchmark, and others who had 2009 as a strong analog would have been called weenies by him, but now it’s his top analog? such bullshit

His original take is there but we don’t want people being JB type irrational stubborn in the face of changing information either. Better late than never. 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

His original take is there but we don’t want people being JB type irrational stubborn in the face of changing information either. Better late than never. 

You buy what the guidance is starting to spit out in the extended? You think we cash in with some early season snow?

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

His original take is there but we don’t want people being JB type irrational stubborn in the face of changing information either. Better late than never. 

i wouldn’t be nearly as annoyed if he wasn’t so sanctimonious about the whole thing beforehand 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i wouldn’t be nearly as annoyed if he wasn’t so sanctimonious about the whole thing beforehand 

That’s a different issue 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

You buy what the guidance is starting to spit out in the extended? You think we cash in with some early season snow?

It fits the pattern progression in the analogs from my winter forecast so why wouldn’t I. Doesn’t guarantee anything yet but things are going according to plan so far. 

[SnowGoose69]

24 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Any met comment on DT's thoughts on the -NAO in early Dec?  ( that is not really a -NAO?)

 

He's mentioned this before but he usually references the transient NATL thumb, this is definitely not the transient thumb where you briefly for 2-3 days get positive heights over Greenland.  Its really the only reason we do not go full blown epic torch 12/1-12/3 with that western pattern.  Without that Greenland ridging we'd have a massive SER with highs in the 60s probably on those 3 days

[Eskimo Joe]

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It fits the pattern progression in the analogs from my winter forecast so why wouldn’t I. Doesn’t guarantee anything yet but things are going according to plan so far. 

Do you think the PV keeps weakening to our advantage, or we strike out in January?

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

He's mentioned this before but he usually references the transient NATL thumb, this is definitely not the transient thumb where you briefly for 2-3 days get positive heights over Greenland.  Its really the only reason we do not go full blown epic torch 12/1-12/3 with that western pattern.  Without that Greenland ridging we'd have a massive SER with highs in the 60s probably on those 3 days

He couldn't be wrong. How dare you question dt the great. The self professed best. 

[DarkSharkWX]

gefs cooked, more western ridging, cold air arrives earlier this run too w/ active STJ

[Jebman]

6 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Does PSU meet the 1" snowfall criteria there? Can't quite read it 

I'll take that! My old backyard gets demolished but good.

[CAPE]

8 hours ago, Terpeast said:

I skimmed through. I think he’s splitting hairs. Would have to read it again with fresh eyes though 

Exactly what he is doing. Even by the numbers its a -NAO. Maybe he is arguing that the mechanism by which it forms won't result in a sustained blocking event. I could buy that.

[CAPE]

As advertised this is a textbook -NAO. Higher than normal pressure near Iceland(weak sub-polar low), lower than normal pressure near the Azores(weaker subtropical high). Amplified longwave pattern with anomalous trough-ridge-trough across the N Atlantic. If that longwave pattern locks in for an extended period, then it is considered an atmospheric block.

[WxUSAF]

37 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Exactly what he is doing. Even by the numbers its a -NAO. Maybe he is arguing that the mechanism by which it forms won't result in a sustained blocking event. I could buy that.

I agree.  As currently depicted, it's a "real" -NAO.  I think he's splitting hairs that it's not forming through the one way of a Scandinavian ridge that retrogrades into the NAO domain.  But Rossby wave breaking is also a very "real" way for a -NAO to form, and that's what's happening here.  One thing I'm watching for is the orientation of the ridge.  I want to see it develop that E-W orientation that's being advertised, and not just N-S.  An E-W ridge over Greenland and Baffin is FAR more effective than a poleward oriented ridge over Greenland or Iceland.  

[CAPE]

The ens means continue the idea of trending the PNA positive (to varying degrees) by Dec 7th. They also indicate the EPO trending into negative territory just beyond that.