JakkelWx Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 On 11/21/2023 at 2:10 PM, stormy said: The latest CANSIPS paints that perfectly for December. I would rather take my chances with that, based on how past storms trended north as we got closer in time. It seems easier for north trends to occur rather than south trends, which we've seen many times! It's reassuring that this El Nino is legit this time, rather than the fake-out that was 2018-19. It's been too long since we've seen a proper El Nino. I was pleasantly surprised at today's ECMWF polar vortex model run, which made the PV even weaker than yesterday's run. Not to mention I was already surprised at that. The MJO seems to want to enter the COD before going into the warmer phases, and the extended euro ensemble wants to gravitate the MJO back towards the colder phases mid month. We will probably see a warmup the first week of December, but even that seems more muted now compared to a couple days ago. Encouraging signs. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 even eric webb is on board now lmao 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 WB 0Z EPS, maybe we don't wait until the holidays...for fun showing the control's Carolina snowstorm during this period. Don't remember seeing SE snowstorm digital snow like that last year. Fun times ahead! Wishing you and your families a peaceful Thanksgiving! 16 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 ^The EPS continues to indicate a much improved look in the NAO domain over the last few runs for that period. It has gone from a flat central Canada ridge- more of a Pacific puke mild look- to a pretty impressive -NAO for the first week of Dec. Still not a very a cold look with that GoA trough. My guess is the less favorable Pac will be temporary. GEPS has a ridge popping over AK towards the end of its run. 7 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 Improvement on the GEFS over the last few model cycles. The 0z run has +h5 heights centered over Baffin, and the Pacific look is somewhat better. The exact MJO progression is likely the biggest driver of the Pacific pattern for the early/mid Dec period. The latest runs are generally weaker in phase 3, and take it into the COD before/just as it gets into phase 4. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 4 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z EPS, maybe we don't wait until the holidays...for fun showing the control's Carolina snowstorm during this period. Don't remember seeing SE snowstorm digital snow like that last year. Fun times ahead! Wishing you and your families a peaceful Thanksgiving! This will be north a common theme in El Ninos that we score in the past is that the cold air is not quite as deep and the storm track is always usually south and works north in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 2 hours ago, CAPE said: ^The EPS continues to indicate a much improved look in the NAO domain over the last few runs for that period. It has gone from a flat central Canada ridge- more of a Pacific puke mild look- to a pretty impressive -NAO for the first week of Dec. Still not a very a cold look with that GoA trough. My guess is the less favorable Pac will be temporary. GEPS has a ridge popping over AK towards the end of its run. Yes. Last night was a step in the right direction. Let's see if this holds. I would rather have a bunch of small to medium size events than one big event. I want to be home with my wife and enjoy snow, not locked in a windowless operations center for days on end. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 23, 2023 Author Share Posted November 23, 2023 31 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: not locked in a windowless operations center for days on end. I want a lot of events as well, but this is a sacrifice I’m willing for you to make. 3 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I want a lot of events as well, but this is a sacrifice I’m willing for you to make. He must never leave the operations center. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yes. Last night was a step in the right direction. Let's see if this holds. I would rather have a bunch of small to medium size events than one big event. I want to be home with my wife and enjoy snow, not locked in a windowless operations center for days on end. I, myself, want more of a compromise. I'd rather have lots of big events. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yes. Last night was a step in the right direction. Let's see if this holds. I would rather have a bunch of small to medium size events than one big event. I want to be home with my wife and enjoy snow, not locked in a windowless operations center for days on end. 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: I want a lot of events as well, but this is a sacrifice I’m willing for you to make. 1 hour ago, TSSN+ said: He must never leave the operations center. Yep. Step up and take one (or a bunch) for the team!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 24 minutes ago, 87storms said: I start a math teaching gig on Monday, so I think I’m on board with your view as well. A few late starts will help me ease into the transition of waking up with the early birds. I'd love something like 8"-12" of cold powder on a Friday night with no wind, then a nice reinforcing Clipper coming down two days later to top everything off with something like 3"-5". Deep winter and no consequences. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 WB 12Z GFS, my non expert eye says at 12 days out this the is one to watch... 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 ^ was just about to post that maybe Dec 5 might be in play 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 27 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GFS, my non expert eye says at 12 days out this the is one to watch... Better odds than last December when the block was further South and the West Coast set up was slightly different. AO progged to be diving just prior to this time. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 53 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GFS, my non expert eye says at 12 days out this the is one to watch... Now //that// is decent. Good heights out west and some Atlantic blocking. Hopefully this isn't a mirage. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 nice timeframe here with a WB -NAO and 50/50 ULL in place. can see a S/W working under the flow. as the GoA trough retrogrades a bit, then you get a transient +PNA 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 GEFS likes the 5th for a storm. As is typical, the mean follows the op with an OV low and coastal transfer. Verbatim it's a bit warm. The 6z run had a similar evolution for that timeframe. The GoA low would be the primary issue for this period. Subject to change though this far out. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 23, 2023 Author Share Posted November 23, 2023 40 minutes ago, CAPE said: GEFS likes the 5th for a storm. As is typical, the mean follows the op with an OV low and coastal transfer. Verbatim it's a bit warm. The 6z run had a similar evolution for that timeframe. The GoA low would be the primary issue for this period. Subject to change though this far out. Euro has a pretty good setup at D10. Looks like a setup for a snow to rain type deal. Euro control run may show something. Although it’s obvious next week’s cold won’t stick around to March, doesn’t look like we flip to a shit the blinds kinda pattern. So that’s good. Keep December 2015 outta here. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro has a pretty good setup at D10. Looks like a setup for a snow to rain type deal. Euro control run may show something. Although it’s obvious next week’s cold won’t stick around to March, doesn’t look like we flip to a shit the blinds kinda pattern. So that’s good. Keep December 2015 outta here. WB 12Z EPS control 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro has a pretty good setup at D10. Looks like a setup for a snow to rain type deal. Euro control run may show something. Although it’s obvious next week’s cold won’t stick around to March, doesn’t look like we flip to a shit the blinds kinda pattern. So that’s good. Keep December 2015 outta here. pretty mint IMO 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 notice how much better the NPAC is compared to last year. god bless +ENSO 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 this is how u do it in december 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 15 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: pretty mint IMO The continet-wide positive temp anomalies don't concern you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 Just now, cbmclean said: The continet-wide positive temp anomalies don't concern you? where? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 The Pacific looks much better on today's 12z Euro. No raging firehouse of zonal puke. Add a bit of a transient +PNA in there and we might have a workable window. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 Just now, AtlanticWx said: where? EPS is colder than the GEFS for that period. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 EPS > GEFS 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: where? Ah I didn't notice the switch from Gefs to Eps. Carry on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: notice how much better the NPAC is compared to last year. god bless +ENSO We knew Nino would help after the last few winters. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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