November Mid/Long Range Discussion

[Maestrobjwa]

@psuhoffman @Terpeast (and whoever else wants to weigh in) Been reading about the PDO this evening...when you made your outlooks, what were your thoughts about about it still being so negative yet with a nino that's strong but not super? Another poster aptly named it a potential "battle royale"...I'm wondering if a weird in between solution is on the table as well...

[Eskimo Joe]

34 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Ill take p-06 and p-22 plzz

Heck, I'd be happy with P15.

[Ji]

[mention=2304]psuhoffman[/mention] [mention=2515]Terpeast[/mention] (and whoever else wants to weigh in) Been reading about the PDO this evening...when you made your outlooks, what were your thoughts about about it still being so negative yet with a nino that's strong but not super? Another poster aptly named it a potential "battle royale"...I'm wondering if a weird in between solution is on the table as well...

I read the best match Nino this strength with pdo like the crap that we have is 72-73 smh

[Terpeast]

32 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

@psuhoffman @Terpeast (and whoever else wants to weigh in) Been reading about the PDO this evening...when you made your outlooks, what were your thoughts about about it still being so negative yet with a nino that's strong but not super? Another poster aptly named it a potential "battle royale"...I'm wondering if a weird in between solution is on the table as well...

I think the nino will eventually win this battle royale. 

although Ji correctly pointed out 72-73 as an analog, it was east based. This nino is not. Besides 72-73 was near normal temp wise. Just bad luck we missed a blizzard to the south of us. 

The better analog in my opinion is 65-66. Also 2009-10 is not off the table either, though I’d want to see what the next MEI comes in… and what the MJO does into mid-late dec. 

[Ji]

I think the nino will eventually win this battle royale. 
although Ji correctly pointed out 72-73 as an analog, it was east based. This nino is not. Besides 72-73 was near normal temp wise. Just bad luck we missed a blizzard to the south of us. 
The better analog in my opinion is 65-66. Also 2009-10 is not off the table either, though I’d want to see what the next MEI comes in… and what the MJO does into mid-late dec. 

65-66 was my #1 analog too. Did 57-58 make your list ?

[Terpeast]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

65-66 was my #1 analog too. Did 57-58 make your list ?

Not quite, but maybe it should have. PDO was positive that winter, but came after a triple nina -PDO just like this year. QBO was positive though. Solar max, too (we’re close to it now).

[Stormchaserchuck1]

How about these run to run model changes? Now we have a -PNA and -NAO?? 

[mattie g]

4 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

looks like our next potential shot at something as this vort rounds the trough. GEFS picks up on it well this time

Precip to our SE off the coast. Winter cancel.

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

How about these run to run model changes? Now we have a -PNA and -NAO?? 

That didn't work for us last year.  We toss.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, Terpeast said:

I think the nino will eventually win this battle royale. 

although Ji correctly pointed out 72-73 as an analog, it was east based. This nino is not. Besides 72-73 was near normal temp wise. Just bad luck we missed a blizzard to the south of us. 

The better analog in my opinion is 65-66. Also 2009-10 is not off the table either, though I’d want to see what the next MEI comes in… and what the MJO does into mid-late dec. 

Ya sure thar didn't miss South because of the PDO? Lol (only half-joking because I don't have a visual of what a -PDO does to storm tracks for us) And come to think of it...how is it we only got 1.2 inches of snow yet the winter was near-normal temp wise? I mean I get a fluke miss, but where were the rest of the flakes? Lol

[Shaulov4]

Pattern Progressions can be pretty tedious at times but they can also be exciting as each player changes course from day to day until there is some sort of consolidation. That progression can be observed on model runs as well, also known as flip flopping to many. The thing about an active STJ is that it is often the things that are not obvious that can make a big difference. For example if you have a stalled frontal boundary, creating what many would say is stale cold air, all you would need is a moisture enriched atmosphere that can ride that stale boundary providing those pretty satisfying overrunning events.

      Based on recent observations and model data, I am starting to believe that December, for the most part will be normal to slightly below normal in temps here in the Mid-Atlantic. I am quite skeptical about the "warm up" (More like warm push) we are due to have and as of right now it seems to be getting more transient in my opinion. I certainly don't think we are done seeing changes in the Mid-Range in terms of storm development. Overall, I think we are in a pretty good spot and I would certainly keep an eye out for any system here on out (December 3-6th is my main interest) . Our winter pattern is not yet here but we are already in a better spot than we were all last year. As a matter of fact many have seen their first flakes today.

[CAPE]

The guidance continues to hint at a wave or waves ejecting eastward from the southwest for the end of the month. As I mentioned a couple of days ago, the biggest issue(other than climo) is associated with energy dropping southeastward in the flow between the western ridge and the southward displaced TPV. Busy northern stream. Ideally a wave taking the southern route would be timed such that it can remain intact as it progresses eastward without being directly underneath or in the immediate wake of NS vorticity. Some sort of a phase is another possibility. Guidance struggles with these types of patterns at range so we keep monitoring.

Looking ahead to early Dec, there are some mixed signals on the ensembles, partly associated with the MJO progression. In general it appears the primary TPV will retreat well to the northwest and a ridge will build into central Canada, while we lose the Aleutian low/ -EPO. The NS would become more 'quiet' in this scenario, but the central and eastern US would become milder. There may be a brief window the first few days Dec for a wave to track underneath as the pattern transitions with some cold still around. Goes without saying that the risk for frozen in the lowlands is pretty low for this entire period. If the current MJO continues to progress/weaken, we should see a return to a colder pattern mid December.

[frd]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

The guidance continues to hint at a wave or waves ejecting eastward from the southwest for the end of the month. As I mentioned a couple of days ago, the biggest issue(other than climo) is associated with energy dropping southeastward in the flow between the western ridge and the southward displaced TPV. Busy northern stream. Ideally a wave taking the southern route would be timed such that it can remain intact as it progresses eastward without being directly underneath or in the immediate wake of NS vorticity. Some sort of a phase is another possibility. Guidance struggles with these types of patterns at range so we keep monitoring.

Looking ahead to early Dec, there are some mixed signals on the ensembles, partly associated with the MJO progression. In general it appears the primary TPV will retreat well to the northwest and a ridge will build into central Canada, while we lose the Aleutian low/ -EPO. The NS would become more 'quiet' in this scenario, but the central and eastern US would become milder. There may be a brief window the first few days Dec for a wave to track underneath as the pattern transitions with some cold still around. Goes without saying that the risk for frozen in the lowlands is pretty low for this entire period. If the current MJO continues to progress/weaken, we should see a return to a colder pattern mid December.

Can you imagine the excitement if we transition to colder will possible snow towards the end of December to coincide with the winter solstice I have been waiting for that for many many years.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, frd said:

Can you imagine the excitement if we transition to colder will possible snow towards the end of December to coincide with the winter solstice I have been waiting for that for many many years.

It has been awhile. WDI?

[CAPE]

Not directly related to our weather in the near term, but beginning later this week the longwave pattern will support cold air draining southeast from Siberia across the very warm Sea of Japan, and sea effect snow season in NW Japan will begin. Continued cold air excursions should also aid in cooing the warm pool east of Japan, and the parade of NPAC cyclones along the polar boundary will help establish the Aleutian low for winter. A persistent Aleutian low is favored in a Nino, and if that parks in a favorable location, one (positive) effect will be to help cool the waters north of Hawaii, encouraging the PDO to trend more towards neutral.

[ldub23]

JB says welcome to the  party.

 

 

 

[midatlanticweather]

30 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

JB says welcome to the  party.

 

 

 

But if nothing comes of it, will he say.. We were the first to be wrong? Nope. We will see if this means anything. These warmings do not always do what we want

[WxUSAF]

Don’t need a SSW for major cold and snow. A weak, wobbly strat vortex is just fine.

[BristowWx]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Don’t need a SSW for major cold and snow. A weak, wobbly strat vortex is just fine.

roger that.  and I am not sure a Jan '77 type cold is even possible in these modern winters. 

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

roger that.  and I am not sure a Jan '77 type cold is even possible in these modern winters. 

Very doubtful, not that JB would ever admit that.

[Eskimo Joe]

6 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

roger that.  and I am not sure a Jan '77 type cold is even possible in these modern winters. 

We'll never have another cold wave of that magnitude again in these parts.

[Solution Man]

10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We'll never have another cold wave of that magnitude again in these parts.

Legendary stuff right there

[Terpeast]

76-77 was cold, but it was also dry

[aldie 22]

I'm not going to EJ or Ji it but seeing a 384 hour GFS op run with zero precip from start to finish isn't much fun to look at.

[Shaulov4]

11 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I'm not going to EJ or Ji it but seeing a 384 hour GFS op run with zero precip from start to finish isn't much fun to look at.

It’s a Good thing that there are other models to look at then 

[SnowenOutThere]

14 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I'm not going to EJ or Ji it but seeing a 384 hour GFS op run with zero precip from start to finish isn't much fun to look at.

CMC with the same look too

[Terpeast]

Ensembles still show an active STJ, even if its not directly over our house. Op runs will flip flop in the med-long range, one will show dry another will show wet. That’s all we can take from now  

[AtlanticWx]

per eric webb, here's a plot of the JFM difference between the 10 most negative NAOs during december vs 10 most positive NAOs during december. using statistical t-tests, he found a significance of 98% between the two datasets showing that a december -NAO during a nino can go a long way for the rest of the season. take 2009-10 for example which had a crazy december -NAO, which set us up for the monster winter to come.

most long range models right now have a sustained -NAO going into december, and while the gefs extended has a +NAO, the gefs has been trending towards a much more sustained -NAO (esp 12z which made a huge nod to CMC/Euro weeklies), so going off of this correlation which has actual statistical significance (~98%) unlike other metrics this board has been using, if we get a -NAO that's sustained throughout December, this winter should turn out pretty cold and possibly snowy too.

 

[WxUSAF]

No idea where this came from and looks nothing like GEFS or EPS, but it is nice to look at.

[stormy]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

76-77 was cold, but it was also dry

Very cold like 76-77 tends to be dry because southward suppression thrives in that pattern.