November Mid/Long Range Discussion

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Moderating under +AO.. will probably veer warm, but this is an interesting setup with developing 50/50 low and GOA low. We don't miss it by a lot.  I expect to see a lot of this setup in the Winter (+nao/good Pacific at the same time). 

[winter_warlock]

5 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Nice. Wonder how that’ll evolve. Maybe that EC trough turns into a 50/50 while the wave off the west coast undercuts the pna to give us an overrunning event. 

But that’s wishcasting at this range. 

Wishcasting or not its still nice to see these possibilities  in November!!  

[Kevin Reilly]

10 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Wishcasting or not its still nice to see these possibilities  in November!!  

I am with you.  I think this time last year we had predominantly a zonal flow right off the Pacific with a Southwesterly Flow from Texas, Gulf Coast, to Jacksonville right up the east coast to Maine.

 

 

[CAPE]

The end of the month into early Dec h5 pattern on the ens means suggests a pretty cold period for the eastern US, but for now it looks as though the baroclinic boundary will be just a bit too far offshore. A little too much NS influence with that TPV position. Long way off so that could change. Regardless, the advertised looks as we move into met winter are very encouraging.

 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, griteater said:

Agree with GaWx that the -VP uplift moving from the Central Pacific to the Americas and Africa in the 2nd half of Dec would support the Euro Weeklies forecast, as late December is really the earliest timeframe when an MJO 7-8-1-2 pass becomes favorable for winter in the East.  

From @Rainshadow. How MJO phases translate in December:

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I am with you.  I think this time last year we had predominantly a zonal flow right off the Pacific with a Southwesterly Flow from Texas, Gulf Coast, to Jacksonville right up the east coast to Maine.

 

 

I agree!! Definitely  nice to see a change  compared to last year!!

[winter_warlock]

  From sterling  wx. For  parts of central MD

 

Coastal Hazard Message National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 730 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2023 MDZ014-210830- /O.CON.KLWX.CF.W.0011.231122T0000Z-231122T1800Z/ Anne Arundel- 730 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2023 ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...One to two feet of inundation above ground level expected in low lying areas due to tidal flooding. * WHERE...Shoreline in Anne Arundel County. * WHEN...From 7 PM Tuesday to 1 PM EST Wednesday, especially around the time of high tide. * IMPACTS...At 3.5 feet, water reaches the floor of the Maritime Museum in Annapolis, begins to cover Bowyer Road on the Naval Academy campus, and numerous businesses on Dock Street are flooded, along with the City Dock parking lot. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Tides two and a half to three feet above normal. The next high tide at Annapolis U.S. Naval Academy is at 11:18 PM and 11:47 AM. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. If travel is required, do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. && Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour. Severn River at Annapolis MLLW Categories - Minor 2.6 ft, Moderate 3.3 ft, Major 6.0 ft MHHW Categories - Minor 1.2 ft, Moderate 1.9 ft, Major 4.6 ft Total Total Departure Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Waves Flood ft MLLW ft MHHW ft ft Impact -------- --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- 20/11 PM 2.1 0.7 0.9 1.0 None 21/12 PM 2.3 0.9 1.4 2.0 None 22/01 AM 3.7 2.3 2.6 2.0 Moderate 22/11 AM 3.1 1.7 2.3 0.5 Minor 22/11 PM 1.8 0.4 1.0 0.5 None 23/02 PM 1.3 -0.1 0.2 0.5 None

 

 

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

The end of the month into early Dec h5 pattern on the ens means suggests a pretty cold period for the eastern US, but for now it looks as though the baroclinic boundary will be just a bit too far offshore. A little too much NS influence with that TPV position. Long way off so that could change. Regardless, the advertised looks as we move into met winter are very encouraging.

 

Definitely  nice too see!!!! Very encouraging!!

[Kevin Reilly]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

The end of the month into early Dec h5 pattern on the ens means suggests a pretty cold period for the eastern US, but for now it looks as though the baroclinic boundary will be just a bit too far offshore. A little too much NS influence with that TPV position. Long way off so that could change. Regardless, the advertised looks as we move into met winter are very encouraging.

 

Well with a developing strengthening El Nino you would think the southern jet will push back.

[Ji]

Uninspiring gfs run tonight

[Shaulov4]

9 hours ago, Ji said:

Uninspiring gfs run tonight

I wouldn't say uninspiring but rather predictable which is a good thing if you want snow later in the month. Many on here have consistently mentioned that December was a building block month for the upcoming winter pattern. So you definitely want to see some "boring" tendencies heading into early December as that most likely means that everything is going according to "plan".  That is not to say that this upcoming cold shot isn't impressive or that there won't be chance of some wintery activity but for the most part I don't think anyone would be surprised if we got zilch for the next 2-3 weeks. In fact I find it rather exciting and interesting to see if we can bank in some "bonuses" especially heading into the second week of December. The STJ is just starting to wake and that will most certainly throw some curveballs in some model forecasts. Some many pieces of energy floating around, don't be surprised to see lows pop up out of nowhere. Another exciting thing to see is the consistency that the models have going into the time frame from Dec 21st to New Years. Now obviously consistency doesn't mean much in the modeling world, however when it aligns with the pros it definitely deserves attention. I think for the next 3 weeks we will see a little bit of everything, some cold shots, some warm pushes and everything in between. This is why we love the weather, because at the end of the day we get what we get and all we can do is appreciate its endless lessons. Btw I wouldn't count the 28th-29th system out just yet.. a little more interaction and things could get rather interesting....

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, Shaulov4 said:

I wouldn't say uninspiring but rather predictable which is a good thing if you want snow later in the month. Many on here have consistently mentioned that December was a building block month for the upcoming winter pattern. So you definitely want to see some "boring" tendencies heading into early December as that most likely means that everything is going according to "plan".  That is not to say that this upcoming cold shot isn't impressive or that there won't be chance of some wintery activity but for the most part I don't think anyone would be surprised if we got zilch for the next 2-3 weeks. In fact I find it rather exciting and interesting to see if we can bank in some "bonuses" especially heading into the second week of December. The STJ is just starting to wake and that will most certainly throw some curveballs in some model forecasts. Some many pieces of energy floating around, don't be surprised to see lows pop up out of now where . Another exciting thing to see is the consistency that the models have going into the time frame from Dec 21st to New Years. Now obviously consistency doesn't mean much in the modeling world, however when it aligns with the pros it definitely deserves attention. I think for the next 3 weeks we will see a little bit of everything, some cold shots, some warm pushes and everything in between. This is why we love the weather, because at the end of the day we get what we get and all we can do is appreciate its endless lessons. Btw the I would count the 28th-29th system out just yet.. a little more interaction and things could get rather interesting....

We have ourselves a new good poster  If you haven't been here before welcome aboard!

[Shaulov4]

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

We have ourselves a new good poster  If you haven't been here before welcome aboard!

Haha thank you, I have been lurking in the background for sometime and have been standing in the shadow of PSU and the crew for a long time, going way back to the Accuweather days. Moderated at another forum that shall not be named until it got too crazy, so just happy to be part of a community again. Oh and hello to a good friend @winter_warlocknice to see you .

[North Balti Zen]

5 hours ago, Shaulov4 said:

I wouldn't say uninspiring but rather predictable which is a good thing if you want snow later in the month. Many on here have consistently mentioned that December was a building block month for the upcoming winter pattern. So you definitely want to see some "boring" tendencies heading into early December as that most likely means that everything is going according to "plan".  That is not to say that this upcoming cold shot isn't impressive or that there won't be chance of some wintery activity but for the most part I don't think anyone would be surprised if we got zilch for the next 2-3 weeks. In fact I find it rather exciting and interesting to see if we can bank in some "bonuses" especially heading into the second week of December. The STJ is just starting to wake and that will most certainly throw some curveballs in some model forecasts. Some many pieces of energy floating around, don't be surprised to see lows pop up out of now where . Another exciting thing to see is the consistency that the models have going into the time frame from Dec 21st to New Years. Now obviously consistency doesn't mean much in the modeling world, however when it aligns with the pros it definitely deserves attention. I think for the next 3 weeks we will see a little bit of everything, some cold shots, some warm pushes and everything in between. This is why we love the weather, because at the end of the day we get what we get and all we can do is appreciate its endless lessons. Btw the I wouldn't count the 28th-29th system out just yet.. a little more interaction and things could get rather interesting....

Oh wow. Genuine welcome to posting here over lurking. Appreciate your thoughts. 

[aldie 22]

After today the op gfs is like moms turkey....dry

[Ji]

1 hour ago, aldie 22 said:

After today the op gfs is like moms turkey....dry

amazing how models dried up as soon as they saw cold. Models..cold...snow...PSU....they all hate us

[CAPE]

44 minutes ago, Ji said:

amazing how models dried up as soon as they saw cold. Models..cold...snow...PSU....they all hate us

And then it will probably get milder for a spell with the MJO propagating over the Indian ocean and eastward to the MC (phase 4) Although forecast to weaken beyond that, there will probably be a milder period after the chilly end of the month/first few days of Dec. MJO progressing through phase 3 and into phase 4 favors ridging into the central US. 

Will you be able to keep it together?

[Terpeast]

41 minutes ago, CAPE said:

And then it will probably get milder for a spell with the MJO propagating over the Indian ocean and eastward to the MC (phase 4) Although forecast to weaken beyond that, there will probably be a milder period after the chilly end of the month/first few days of Dec. MJO progressing through phase 3 and into phase 4 favors ridging into the central US. 

Will you be able to keep it together?

Yeah, he’ll be fine. He’s turning over a new leaf. 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Right, Ji?

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

9 hours ago, Shaulov4 said:

 This is why we love the weather, because at the end of the day we get what we get and all we can do is appreciate its endless lessons.

Welcome!  I used to "lurk" here too years ago when this was the old Eastern WX Forums (then joined)!  Anyhow, you are absolutely right about the bolded part I highlight above.  Meteorology and forecasting has to be about the most humbling field (though yeah, there are ironically a share of arrogant meteorologists around!).  You can get one tough forecast right and feel good, then turn around and totally mess up another day!

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Will you be able to keep it together?

Magic 8 ball says..."Not Bloody Likely!" 

[Ji]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

And then it will probably get milder for a spell with the MJO propagating over the Indian ocean and eastward to the MC (phase 4) Although forecast to weaken beyond that, there will probably be a milder period after the chilly end of the month/first few days of Dec. MJO progressing through phase 3 and into phase 4 favors ridging into the central US. 

Will you be able to keep it together?

the weeklies have had a mild early to mid December for as long as i can remember. So i am ready for that. But if we dont turn around Dec 20 like the weeklies say...............

[North Balti Zen]

3 hours ago, Ji said:

the weeklies have had a mild early to mid December for as long as i can remember. So i am ready for that. But if we dont turn around Dec 20 like the weeklies say...............

That's when you will do your annual ruin the board for everyone so we can be as miserable as you series of tantrums?

[CAPE]

23 minutes ago, Ji said:

the weeklies have had a mild early to mid December for as long as i can remember. So i am ready for that. But if we dont turn around Dec 20 like the weeklies say...............

...the Ji pre-Christmas meltdown will commence.

[brooklynwx99]

honestly, even with a perfect track and "cold" air relative to average, it would likely be too warm to amount to much of anything until like Dec 15th

[Eskimo Joe]

3 hours ago, aldie 22 said:

After today the op gfs is like moms turkey....dry

El Nino!

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

honestly, even with a perfect track and "cold" air relative to average, it would likely be too warm to amount to much of anything until like Dec 15th

lol it snowed 5 inches in Leesburg, VA on nov 15, 2019....we have had several early Dec snows before. It can snow early

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

El Nino!

El Nono

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, Ji said:

lol it snowed 5 inches in Leesburg, VA on nov 15, 2019....we have had several early Dec snows before. It can snow early

it can, but snows that rare are rare for a reason. you need a lottttt to go right

[Ji]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

it can, but snows that rare are rare for a reason. you need a lottttt to go right

I dont think the cold is the issue--were just not seeing storminess on the models. When there has been something...its either been mixed or snow. The models are showing temps the same as mid to late Feb next week

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

I dont think the cold is the issue--were just not seeing storminess on the models. When there has been something...its either been mixed or snow. The models are showing temps the same as mid to late Feb next week

Warm/wet then cool/dry. Very La Nina.