November Mid/Long Range Discussion

[WinterWxLuvr]

7 hours ago, CAPE said:

It's not about DC. At least 1-2" of slop over the next 10 days at Mt PSU is a must have. Failure could portend a disastrous outcome for actual winter.

End of the world type stuff

[TSSN+]

[AtlanticWx]

genuine question, how does whether or not PSU gets an inch or not soon have any bearing on how this winter is gonna go? stats can say what they wanna say, but is there really a causation to the correlation that's significant

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

49 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

End of the world type stuff

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

genuine question, how does whether or not PSU gets an inch or not soon have any bearing on how this winter is gonna go? stats can say what they wanna say, but is there really a causation to the correlation that's significant

The correlation/causation is that we usually need a cold winter to have a snowy one. And typically if it’s going to be cold in general we get at least enough cold early for the colder parts of this forum to get snow early. There are other ways to get at the same predictive data. We could likely find a temperature marker at DC, like if DC doesn’t have x amount of days below X temp by x date…and find the same correlation. It just doesn’t work with snow at DC because they are often too warm until later even in colder better winters. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, AtlanticWx said:

genuine question, how does whether or not PSU gets an inch or not soon have any bearing on how this winter is gonna go? stats can say what they wanna say, but is there really a causation to the correlation that's significant

So you're basically asking if PSU's inches are statistically significant.   (Sorry PSU, all in jest, someone was bound to go there eventually!).  Oh, and I'm talking about SNOW you perverts!!

But in all seriousness, I don't know how much "causation" there is, but there may be something to whether some locations get their first snow earlier vs. later and how that winter season goes area-wide.  Then again, I know there are at least some winters that started "late" (back-loaded) and were pretty amazing or at least pretty darned good (2007, 2015 come to mind offhand...you could also argue the 2016 blizzard after record warmth in December).  Fact is, around here it's been awhile since we had a decent December snow...I'm not talking HECS, but even a moderate event like 2002 or something like that.

[nj2va]

STJ is open for business on the 18z GFS.

[MillvilleWx]

11 hours ago, Terpeast said:

I’m not even looking for a snow threat at this point. It’s November. What I AM looking for is STJ activity, which is an important prerequisite for snow when it eventually gets colder. 

All Op runs and ensembles support busy STJ:

To me, this is hands down the most important aspect of the whole forecast for winter. As long as that STJ stays active and brings precip into the area, we will have multiple chances. I’m not expecting a blockbuster winter here (Foreshadow for my snowfall contest prediction later this week),  but I expect several chances at precip and timing cold will be key. As of now, I am encouraged with what I see. No, I’m not through the moon, I am cautiously optimistic. It is mid to late November… a lot of season ahead, including peak winter which for us isn’t for another 1.5 months. 
 

Patience is a virtue everyone. Enjoy the holidays and keep an eye on short term threats, but I wouldn’t even start tracking long range for another month yet imho. 
 

Keep the faith guys! 

[clskinsfan]

3 hours ago, AtlanticWx said:

genuine question, how does whether or not PSU gets an inch or not soon have any bearing on how this winter is gonna go? stats can say what they wanna say, but is there really a causation to the correlation that's significant

Stats are how we kind of track correlation though arent they? I am almost 55 years old and have tracked winter since I was 9 or 10 years old. So while my sample size is small my stats are all I know. And what I know from my stats is if late November/Early December suck we are most likely screwed. Now this is MY observation of MY life. Does that really mean or matter anything to anyone else? Who knows. But snow is an IMBY game. It always has been. 

[clskinsfan]

2 hours ago, nj2va said:

STJ is open for business on the 18z GFS.

Has been showing an active STJ for days. We are gonna have our chances this winter brother. 

[Terpeast]

Wave #2 (D6)

 

Yes it’s rain, and yes it’s still November… but if it were a month later, we’d be looking at 5-8” areawide.

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Wave #2 (D6)

 

Yes it’s rain, and yes it’s still November… but if it were a month later, we’d be looking at 5-8” areawide.

The Tuesday wave would be a front end thumper in January as well. I just hope we dont use up the STJ before then.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

44 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Wave #2 (D6)

Yes it’s rain, and yes it’s still November… but if it were a month later, we’d be looking at 5-8” areawide.

The ridge gets stuck in the GOA, instead of the WC. Looking at the NAO, AO, and EPO I would guess we have more of a chance at snow.. Canadian low keeps us warm. 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

The Tuesday wave would be a front end thumper in January as well. I just hope we dont use up the STJ before then.

Nah, I think it’s just getting warmed up. Nino 3.4 is still going up with a recent wwb, and the STJ usually gets more active as the winter goes on. Of course it’ll wax and wane, so don’t be surprised to see warmer and drier periods mixed in. 

[Chris78]

The good look starts next weekend and runs through the first week of December.

Lets get @psuhoffman his inch. 

looks like several waves during that period.

Hopefully get one to track under us with enough cold air

 

[Jebman]

20 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

The Tuesday wave would be a front end thumper in January as well. I just hope we dont use up the STJ before then.

LMAO, subtrop jet is just getting warmed up right now, just clearin' her throat. Its gonna go full-on Beast Mode before much longer. Western ski resorts will get buried alive for good, sunk without a trace in dozens of feet of pow and the south will be Waterworld, places like Buda, TX get waterboarded by ridiculous rains, and the Mid Atlantic will be paralyzed by unbelievable snowstorm after unbelievable snowstorm. Many weather enthusiasts on American Wx Forums will be zombies from staring at the models for months on end and gulping down gallons of Monster drinks. Some of the snows will feature comma heads with torrential snows that will simply pivot in place, while landmarks get lost in ridiculously deep snows and people cry out in anguish for the Jebman to come and help them dig out.

This is gonna be a winter like no other. 

[pazzo83]

16 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

The continued can-kicking of when the real cold air arrives is annoying…DCA might not get a freeze until December starts.

looks like NYC has also not yet had a freeze.  Could be Dec for both cities.

[TSSN+]

And of course 0z GFS and EURO turn to mush. I’m already tired of winter and it’s not even winter. 

[Jebman]

2 hours ago, TSSN+ said:

And of course 0z GFS and EURO turn to mush. I’m already tired of winter and it’s not even winter. 

TSSN+, you live in Winter Country! I guarantee you get demolished by snows.

[Weather Will]

WB RRFS rain storm incoming...first sign of active storm track developing.  I will take it.

[BristowWx]

ULL hair further west for late Wed on 6z.  clicking back last couple runs this run has it closer to the coast of NC.  still does nothing much but interesting in the theme of storms coming from the south 

[Eskimo Joe]

00z Euro tries to give us some TV Snow to end November / start December.

[NorthArlington101]

9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

00z Euro tries to give us some TV Snow to end November / start December.

Control and a handful of the 00z EPS members come through with a modest storm in the same timeframe. I think others have said this ad nauseum already, but that's probably the timeframe to watch.

[aldie 22]

Wonder how much has changed in the last 13 years  found this work done by Ender on here back in 2010...i guess you can file this in the PSU first inch category of analysis.

 

 

After reading mention of the "mid-Atlantic December 5th rule" I decided to take a look at historical DCA first .5" or greater snowfall dates and the implications for the ensuing winter. Here's what I found:

If the first such measurement was in the month of November (11 cases) then the winter averaged 17.1" with 13.7" falling after the first Nov snowfall.

If the first .5" or greater fell between 12/1 and 12/15 (17 cases) there Winter averaged 21.3" with 17.9" falling after the first event.

If the first .5" was between 12/16 and 12/31 (13 years) then Winter averaged 19.2" with 15.4" falling after that first snowfall.

If the first .5" was in the month of January (21 years) then the entire winter only pulled 12.1" with another 9.5" falling after the first snowfall.

Looking at the results from the angle of first snowfall depth was somewhat more interesting.

If the first snowfall was >4" then the season as a whole averaged 28.3" with 20.1" falling after the first storm. A total of 16 years met this criteria.

If the first snow was between 2" and 3.9" then the winter's total averaged at 11.5" with 8.75" falling after the first event.

In the 20 years where the first storm was between 1" and 1.9" the winter averaged 15.2" with 13.8" falling after that first snowfall.

A total of nine winters saw a first .5" or greater snowfall of between .5" and .9" and those winters only averaged 12.3" for the entire winter.

NOTE: I only considered a snowfall the "first snowfall" if the measurement was >=.5". So if .1" fell on 11/17 and .2" fell on 11/22 and .9" fell on 12/3 then as far as this "research" is concerned the first snowfall was the .9" event on 12/3.

The average of the entire data set (1945 - 2010) was 16.5".

[Terpeast]

7 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Wonder how much has changed in the last 13 years  found this work done by Ender on here back in 2010...i guess you can file this in the PSU first inch category of analysis.

 

 

After reading mention of the "mid-Atlantic December 5th rule" I decided to take a look at historical DCA first .5" or greater snowfall dates and the implications for the ensuing winter. Here's what I found:

If the first such measurement was in the month of November (11 cases) then the winter averaged 17.1" with 13.7" falling after the first Nov snowfall.

If the first .5" or greater fell between 12/1 and 12/15 (17 cases) there Winter averaged 21.3" with 17.9" falling after the first event.

If the first .5" was between 12/16 and 12/31 (13 years) then Winter averaged 19.2" with 15.4" falling after that first snowfall.

If the first .5" was in the month of January (21 years) then the entire winter only pulled 12.1" with another 9.5" falling after the first snowfall.

Looking at the results from the angle of first snowfall depth was somewhat more interesting.

If the first snowfall was >4" then the season as a whole averaged 28.3" with 20.1" falling after the first storm. A total of 16 years met this criteria.

If the first snow was between 2" and 3.9" then the winter's total averaged at 11.5" with 8.75" falling after the first event.

In the 20 years where the first storm was between 1" and 1.9" the winter averaged 15.2" with 13.8" falling after that first snowfall.

A total of nine winters saw a first .5" or greater snowfall of between .5" and .9" and those winters only averaged 12.3" for the entire winter.

NOTE: I only considered a snowfall the "first snowfall" if the measurement was >=.5". So if .1" fell on 11/17 and .2" fell on 11/22 and .9" fell on 12/3 then as far as this "research" is concerned the first snowfall was the .9" event on 12/3.

The average of the entire data set (1945 - 2010) was 16.5".

I wonder what the results will look like if the BWI dataset is used instead. Much longer record than IAD and better siting than DCA.

I could do it, but I’m researched-out after doing my outlook. 
 

Even thinking next time I do an outlook or project future winters, I’ll use BWI data instead. Snowfall is so similar between BWI and IAD, these two often can be interchanged 

[NorthArlington101]

Wonder how much has changed in the last 13 years  found this work done by Ender on here back in 2010...i guess you can file this in the PSU first inch category of analysis.
 
 

After reading mention of the "mid-Atlantic December 5th rule" I decided to take a look at historical DCA first .5" or greater snowfall dates and the implications for the ensuing winter. Here's what I found:

If the first such measurement was in the month of November (11 cases) then the winter averaged 17.1" with 13.7" falling after the first Nov snowfall.

If the first .5" or greater fell between 12/1 and 12/15 (17 cases) there Winter averaged 21.3" with 17.9" falling after the first event.

If the first .5" was between 12/16 and 12/31 (13 years) then Winter averaged 19.2" with 15.4" falling after that first snowfall.

If the first .5" was in the month of January (21 years) then the entire winter only pulled 12.1" with another 9.5" falling after the first snowfall.

Looking at the results from the angle of first snowfall depth was somewhat more interesting.

If the first snowfall was >4" then the season as a whole averaged 28.3" with 20.1" falling after the first storm. A total of 16 years met this criteria.

If the first snow was between 2" and 3.9" then the winter's total averaged at 11.5" with 8.75" falling after the first event.

In the 20 years where the first storm was between 1" and 1.9" the winter averaged 15.2" with 13.8" falling after that first snowfall.

A total of nine winters saw a first .5" or greater snowfall of between .5" and .9" and those winters only averaged 12.3" for the entire winter.

NOTE: I only considered a snowfall the "first snowfall" if the measurement was >=.5". So if .1" fell on 11/17 and .2" fell on 11/22 and .9" fell on 12/3 then as far as this "research" is concerned the first snowfall was the .9" event on 12/3.

The average of the entire data set (1945 - 2010) was 16.5".

I’ve already forgotten the entire contents of both my college-level stats classes, but I feel like we’d need some kind of measure of correlation (r-squared?) to go along with this. But it is preliminarily interesting.

[WxUSAF]

Good pull @aldie 22. My main takeaway there is a fairly obvious one: if we want until January for the first snowfall, it’s probably going to be a BN snowfall winter. 

[aldie 22]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Good pull @aldie 22. My main takeaway there is a fairly obvious one: if we want until January for the first snowfall, it’s probably going to be a BN snowfall winter. 

Also looks like we want the first snow to be either more than 4" or between 1-2" apparently 2 -3.9" for that first snow is bad bidniz

[Terpeast]

19 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Also looks like we want the first snow to be either more than 4" or between 1-2" apparently 2 -3.9" for that first snow is bad bidniz

I wonder if the 2-3.9” gap is due to sampling, or is actually an artifact of a front-loaded La Nina winter. 

[WxUSAF]

25 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I wonder if the 2-3.9” gap is due to sampling, or is actually an artifact of a front-loaded La Nina winter. 

All of these type of stats are very small sample size. I think that’s a meaningless quirk.