November Mid/Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I stand corrected on the exact amounts in your backyard, but my point is that had those storms not occurred at all, I’d be a lot more concerned.

Agreed. If the beaches at this latitude are able to get multiple big snows in that stretch, including 2 blizzards, that implies bad luck with wave timing more than anything else. The cold was obviously available.

[psuhoffman]

32 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I think we need more than 1 nino to know that for sure. Bigger sample size.Now if it's a complete disaster that's different, but if we end up with say just slightly above normal snowfall and miss out on say 2 storms that was just too warm couldn't that be the randomness of weather?  Im sure We've had perfect tract rainstorms in ninos before.

First off I think this is moot as I’m expecting a lot of snow. But this would be 2 ninos. Everyone forgets 2019 because “it didn’t act like a Nino”. Plus it’s been 2 neutral and 3 Nino winters that were dreg also!  Neutrals aren’t supposed to be all awful. And even Nina’s historically 1/4 are a fluke snowy winter. The fact we got 5 neutral/Nino winters in a row all awful starts to add evidence Imo. Add in 2 ninos…and I’m calling it.  Not saying it means we can never ever get a 40” winter again. Or an hecs. Just…that our climate has changed more radically than the head in the sand brigade want to admit and both those things will be much more rare. Basically it would mean the last 7 years wasn’t a fluke or a bad cycle but perhaps just the new reality.  If you want to wait another 15 years to get maybe 2-3 more ninos to have sufficient data to say that with statistical significance fine but enough writing would be on the wall for me! 

 

 

[Chris78]

8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Not really a good sign. Trying to be optimistic but the writing may be on the wall for this winter.

Calling winter on November 19th lol?

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Agreed. If the beaches at this latitude are able to get multiple big snows in that stretch, including 2 blizzards, that implies bad luck with wave timing than anything else. The cold was obviously available.

It’s about probabilities over time. It’s actually common in a nina to get progressive waves that miss 95 west in a colder period. Nina’s are not all wall to wall torches.  There are actually 2 types and the ones with a poleward pac ridge are colder ones but still frustrating because they are still progressive patterns with low probabilities of big snow. 
 

Those patterns that provided some snow to the beaches were never likely to produce an above normal snowfall winter on the whole for DC or Baltimore. That was the typical favored outcome. Similar to 2022. Yea a couple of those progressive waves hit, some others missed, DC got some snow, but that was never going to be a good snowfall winter. Mediocre was the upward limit. 
 

Over time it were stuck in year after year where the goal posts are “this is going to really suck” like 2017, 2020, 2023 and the high end is “if we get lucky with some progressive waves maybe we can eek to a mediocre year” like 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022…over the long term out snowfall average is going to plummet. I don’t see the last 7 years as bad luck. It’s been the most likely outcome given the probabilities over that period. 

[Chris78]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

First off I think this is moot as I’m expecting a lot of snow. But this would be 2 ninos. Everyone forgets 2019 because “it didn’t act like a Nino”. Plus it’s been 2 neutral and 3 Nino winters that were dreg also!  Neutrals aren’t supposed to be all awful. And even Nina’s historically 1/4 are a fluke snowy winter. The fact we got 5 neutral/Nino winters in a row all awful starts to add evidence Imo. Add in 2 ninos…and I’m calling it.  Not saying it means we can never ever get a 40” winter again. Or an hecs. Just…that our climate has changed more radically than the head in the sand brigade want to admit and both those things will be much more rare. Basically it would mean the last 7 years wasn’t a fluke or a bad cycle but perhaps just the new reality.  If you want to wait another 15 years to get maybe 2-3 more ninos to have sufficient data to say that with statistical significance fine but enough writing would be on the wall for me! 

 

 

All good points! I hope your right on this being a moot point. 

 

[psuhoffman]

46 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

97-98 had like 3 would-be HECS with temps near 40. Only the highest elevations in the Apps got any snow at all from them I think.

98 was a super Nino with a vortex crashing western Canada flooding the pac firehose into the conus. That’s an important piece of info. If we go super Nino and fail that way that’s another story. Details matter. 

[psuhoffman]

40 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Why are we having this conversation now rather than the end of February?  DC averages .1 of snow in November.  

It’s just a conversation. I find it an interesting one. It’s fun to speculate sometimes. Have articulate scientific debate. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s about probabilities over time. It’s actually common in a nina to get progressive waves that miss 95 west in a colder period. Nina’s are not all wall to wall torches.  There are actually 2 types and the ones with a poleward pac ridge are colder ones but still frustrating because they are still progressive patterns with low probabilities of big snow. 
 

Those patterns that provided some snow to the beaches were never likely to produce an above normal snowfall winter on the whole for DC or Baltimore. That was the typical favored outcome. Similar to 2022. Yea a couple of those progressive waves hit, some others missed, DC got some snow, but that was never going to be a good snowfall winter. Mediocre was the upward limit. 
 

Over time it were stuck in year after year where the goal posts are “this is going to really suck” like 2017, 2020, 2023 and the high end is “if we get lucky with some progressive waves maybe we can eek to a mediocre year” like 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022…over the long term out snowfall average is going to plummet. I don’t see the last 7 years as bad luck. It’s been the most likely outcome given the probabilities over that period. 

The way I see it...I think it's proven that no other enso state works anymore. But now this is the last one we HAVEN'T had in this stretch...so thus year we see if at least this one thing (mod niño) can still work. And if it does...we'll all be stoked. At least that would mean once or twice a decade we can get above average even if the climate is too hostile for the other setups. Yeah that's a lot of years and life that would be going by in between, but...we may have to take what we can get.

Now I also get why somebody doesn't wanna have this discussion right now. May be fun to speculate (as scientific debates do and that's great) but let's not forget the emotional side of this (and I get it, maybe some scientific debaters are more logic than emotion and don't get that side of things, lol). It is indeed the last snow hope we're looking at here...like it legit could tell us what the rest of our lives in terms of snow will look like here, and some prefer to stay optimistic and not entertain the other.

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

The way I see it...I think it's proven that no other enso state works anymore. But now this is the last one we HAVEN'T had in this stretch...so thus year we see if at least this one thing (mod niño) can still work. And if it does...we'll all be stoked. At least that would mean once or twice a decade we can get above average even if the climate is too hostile for the other setups. Yeah that's a lot of years and life that would be going by in between, but...we may have to take what we can get.

Now I also get why somebody doesn't wanna have this discussion right now. May be fun to speculate (as scientific debates do and that's great) but let's not forget the emotional side of this (and I get it, maybe some scientific debaters are more logic than emotion and don't get that side of things, lol). It is indeed the last snow hope we're looking at here...like it legit could tell us what the rest of our lives in terms of snow will look like here, and some prefer to stay optimistic and not entertain the other.

Talking about it won’t affect the outcome. 

[psuhoffman]

Things look fine Imo. I’m just engaging in speculation wrt what the outcome of this season could mean in the larger picture. I am in no means second guessing my expectations yet. 

[SnowenOutThere]

16 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now I also get why somebody doesn't wanna have this discussion right now. May be fun to speculate (as scientific debates do and that's great) but let's not forget the emotional side of this (and I get it, maybe some scientific debaters are more logic than emotion and don't get that side of things, lol). It is indeed the last snow hope we're looking at here...like it legit could tell us what the rest of our lives in terms of snow will look like here, and some prefer to stay optimistic and not entertain the other.

Not quite sure why just mentioning different possibilities for this winter and what they mean for our region should impact our emotions ... its not like we have failed yet. We are simply pointing out what a failure would mean, which is an important discussion to have, burying our heads in the sand won't change that. 

[Jersey Andrew]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Things look fine Imo. I’m just engaging in speculation wrt what the outcome of this season could mean in the larger picture. I am in no means second guessing my expectations yet. 

The sheer number of massive snowstorms to hit East Coast from 2006-2016 was historically anomalous and I wonder if climate change could have driven these outcomes. NYC had 20+ inch storms at least a half dozen times in this period when the previous hundred years they had two.

[brooklynwx99]

4 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

The sheer number of massive snowstorms to hit East Coast from 2006-2016 was historically anomalous and I wonder if climate change could have driven these outcomes. NYC had 20+ inch storms at least a half dozen times in this period when the previous hundred years they had two.

it absolutely had an impact IMO

[Maestrobjwa]

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Talking about it won’t affect the outcome. 

You're right--it won't (I'm not talking about "jinxes" here, lol) But do you know what talking about it a lot does do? Makes a scenario that hasn't happened feel more real. In other words, the more you talk about a fail scenario, the more real it feels in the mind despite the fact that it hasn't happened. 

Some would rather focus on the now in order to live in the now, and be more optimistic (hence the "Why are we doing this already" responses you'll get) Hard to stay optimistic and simultaneously have endless discussion about the fail scenario, lol Some don't want to even go there at this point for that very reason.

[Maestrobjwa]

24 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Not quite sure why just mentioning different possibilities for this winter and what they mean for our region should impact our emotions ... its not like we have failed yet. We are simply pointing out what a failure would mean, which is an important discussion to have, burying our heads in the sand won't change that. 

I question how important it is to have this discussion for us to have in this forum where pretty much everybody knows where we are and what a fail this winter would mean? I'd like to think 99% of don't need to be convinced of that...especially not after alllllllll the endless discussion of our climo the last few winters. It's like preaching to the snowy choir, lol

[Kevin Reilly]

41 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

The sheer number of massive snowstorms to hit East Coast from 2006-2016 was historically anomalous and I wonder if climate change could have driven these outcomes. NYC had 20+ inch storms at least a half dozen times in this period when the previous hundred years they had two.

Warmer air holds more moisture, and this is still true in the winter.  Also, warmer mixing with colder initially cause bigger longer duration storms. Also, with warmer conditions warmth transport to meet the cold forcing takes place more efficiently as well again initially.  However, when things start to balance out moving to warmer overall, those times of volatility also start to narrow and even out over time.  In reaction the the post above it is pretty clear to me the state of the Elnino and LaNina definitely is affected by the overall warming of our oceans and air with ocean air taking over since it takes longer to cool down relative to the past climate times. 

[cbmclean]

52 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I question how important it is to have this discussion for us to have in this forum where pretty much everybody knows where we are and what a fail this winter would mean? I'd like to think 99% of don't need to be convinced of that...especially not after alllllllll the endless discussion of our climo the last few winters. It's like preaching to the snowy choir, lol

Just scroll past them.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

Just scroll past them.

That too (although when there's other good stuff in between it's hard to miss, lol)

[Ralph Wiggum]

Not a single person talking about the return of the Dec 5 snow on the 12z gfs for parts of the region? Funny to see digital snow on that date...maybe a good omen for winter even if a 384hr prog doesnt verify.

[Maestrobjwa]

18 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not a single person talking about the return of the Dec 5 snow on the 12z gfs for parts of the region? Funny to see digital snow on that date...maybe a good omen for winter even if a 384hr prog doesnt verify.

Gotta make sure there isn't any can-kicking going on first, lol

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I question how important it is to have this discussion for us to have in this forum where pretty much everybody knows where we are and what a fail this winter would mean? I'd like to think 99% of don't need to be convinced of that...especially not after alllllllll the endless discussion of our climo the last few winters. It's like preaching to the snowy choir, lol

A lot more than 1% seem to argue with basic climo stats when I post them…

 

We could go back and forth but let me simplify this. Some find the climo discussion compelling. Therefore it is going to happen. Those that don’t find it compelling, or find it emotionally upsetting, can choose not to engage in it. Yes you will have to see it, oh well. We all have to see lots of things we would rather not day to day. Just move along.
 

BTW, I find the discussion compelling, I do not find the discussion about the discussion compelling. Have you considered it’s the complaining about the climo discussion that takes to to another level and ends up taking over the thread. We had a handful of posts about what the winter could tell us about the future…then we have had twice as many posts about whether to have the discussion and why it’s disturbing and blah blah blah. So now this has taken over the thread instead of it being a few posts and move along. 

[midatlanticweather]

What the.. 

 

 

[Terpeast]

58 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

What the.. 

 

 

Really???

I’m glad they still call it “experimental”, or they’re looking at a major credibility hit.

(yeah, no I’m not buying what they’re selling)

[TSSN+]

Euro def cooking up something at 240. Too bad it’s 240 

[Eskimo Joe]

12 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Euro def cooking up something at 240. Too bad it’s 240 

Winter's only 10 days away!

[WxUSAF]

20 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Euro def cooking up something at 240. Too bad it’s 240 

Also some mixed precipitation D9. Euro and GGEM have stopped cankicking cold air and a potentially favorable pattern for now. They both bring in some cold air next Sunday and maintain if after. GFS still is mostly a hot mess of inconsistency.

[Daniel Boone]

36 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Winter's only 10 days away!

Exactly. 

[Maestrobjwa]

37 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Also some mixed precipitation D9. Euro and GGEM have stopped cankicking cold air and a potentially favorable pattern for now. They both bring in some cold air next Sunday and maintain if after. GFS still is mostly a hot mess of inconsistency.

As it has been since that update last year. Is it too early to say it just can't be trusted as much? Even in last year's mediocrity it seemed like it was off the rails on several occasions...

[nj2va]

2 hours ago, midatlanticweather said:

What the.. 

 

 

There’s possibility of mixed precip/icing on Tuesday - highest chance is in western MD but there’s a possibility the 81 corridor sees a bit of icing so the map makes sense IMO.

[brooklynwx99]

really a very nice pattern heading into the last week of November. wish this was a month later but not much has changed... there should be some threats with this look