Chris78 Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 19 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: j for shits and giggles Seems like maybe a 3 to 6 day window after Thanksgiving. Already feels better than last year. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 Nice s****l for a D10 mean. 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 2 hours ago, TSSN+ said: Justin Berk. lol. Ignore. I do ignore it lol they hype everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 2 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said: He is the weeniest of weenies. He'd forecast snow in the middle of summer on the equator. All models but 1 will say rain and he will follow the one model that says snow over a cliff!! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 44 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Seems like maybe a 3 to 6 day window after Thanksgiving. Already feels better than last year. maybe a bit longer 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: maybe a bit longer Just have to stay with that look for 10 days 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 18, 2023 Author Share Posted November 18, 2023 Yeah euro and GGEM have been showing some decent looking setups the week after thanksgiving for a day or two. Just hard to count it for much given how much the Tuesday-Saturday period is still in flux. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 10 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Just have to stay with that look for 10 days Take it fwiw, but recent runs of the weeklies/extended products continue the same general h5 look well into Dec. Realistically the pattern will be variable with milder spells, but it's nice to see the guidance continue to advertise a favorable pattern overall. 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 1 hour ago, Chris78 said: Seems like maybe a 3 to 6 day window after Thanksgiving. Already feels better than last year. What could go wrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Nice s****l for a D10 mean. good overrunning look there. would be much more excited if it was a month later 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 Last Wednesday at 5:41 pm I said in this thread that I sensed the atmosphere was beginning to feel El Nino and moisture influx into our area would improve over the next 5 - 15 days. The latest CPC thoughts give Virginia especially southwest of D.C. 2 inches of rain Tuesday/Wednesday. The latest 18z deterministic GFS gives my area through D.C. 2 - 3 inches during this time-frame. Was my call 3 days ago blind luck or divine intervention?? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 Pretty good -NAO here. The pattern isn't half bad. +pna building 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 18, 2023 Author Share Posted November 18, 2023 Happy hour delivers love. And has lost a lot of the craziness it’s been showing the last 48 hours. Much more consistent with other guidance now. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 17 minutes ago, stormy said: Last Wednesday at 5:41 pm I said in this thread that I sensed the atmosphere was beginning to feel El Nino and moisture influx into our area would improve over the next 5 - 15 days. The latest CPC thoughts give Virginia especially southwest of D.C. 2 inches of rain Tuesday/Wednesday. The latest 18z deterministic GFS gives my area through D.C. 2 - 3 inches during this time-frame. Was my call 3 days ago blind luck or divine intervention?? Blind luck? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 Winter is always 10 days away in the Mid Atlantic! 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Winter is always 10 days away in he Mid Atlantic! Technically it's 13 days away. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Happy hour delivers love. And has lost a lot of the craziness it’s been showing the last 48 hours. Much more consistent with other guidance now. LWX and Mt. Holly were right to toss 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Technically it's 13 days away. 33 days “Technically” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 18, 2023 Author Share Posted November 18, 2023 8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Winter is always 10 days away in he Mid Atlantic! Actually December 1st is 12 days away… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 38 minutes ago, stormy said: Last Wednesday at 5:41 pm I said in this thread that I sensed the atmosphere was beginning to feel El Nino and moisture influx into our area would improve over the next 5 - 15 days. The latest CPC thoughts give Virginia especially southwest of D.C. 2 inches of rain Tuesday/Wednesday. The latest 18z deterministic GFS gives my area through D.C. 2 - 3 inches during this time-frame. Was my call 3 days ago blind luck or divine intervention?? I’m gonna go with luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 20 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Blind luck? I think your right..................... I'll take it no matter where it came from!!!! Of course, I'll believe it when its in the gauge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’m gonna go with luck You're a smart person! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 24 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: 33 days “Technically” Met winter. Each season is 3 months. Logical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 18, 2023 Author Share Posted November 18, 2023 4 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 GEFS has a better phase with the Thanksgiving system and much more WB -NAO blocking as a result. let’s see if this can remain consistent 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 WB 18Z GFS; nice to see the chilly Thanksgiving back in the forecast. 10 plus degrees below normal! Beyond 5 days, nice not to see the SE ridge, beyond that we'll see... 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: GEFS has a better phase with the Thanksgiving system and much more WB -NAO blocking as a result. let’s see if this can remain consistent Much better position of the TPV too, the western ridge is stronger, and the trough NW of Hawaii is back. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 one EPS member had a very naughty 34 inch storm in there but i counted 30 members that gave us something between now and early December. On a side note: I dont think we have ever had a storm in the last week of November. We have had a white thanksgiving and a mid Nov Storm(a few years ago) and of course Veterans Day. But i dont remember anything ever happening the last week of November.. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 Well if we want snow in late November, we need it to be much below normal. 7 day period ending Dec. 3 look like the coldest stretch over the next 2 weeks. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 21 hours ago, psuhoffman said: There’s an amped signal for a guaranteed vodka pac puke base state regime…….climate change Yikes. I know you didn’t see hardly any measurable snow last year and this was far and away the lowest snowfall totals in since records were kept in northern md. The last 20 months have been tough. I think we will be fine though. I would be shocked if our area doesn’t bounce back to the historical average with a season or two producing above average snowfall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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