nj2va Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 On 11/17/2023 at 6:35 PM, WxUSAF said: Sorry…if we don’t go from drought to flood status with feet of rain and highs in the 20s for thanksgiving then we might as well pack it up! And Ji and Chuck have already cancelled next winter. So see you in late 25?? Expand But what does PSU think? Has he gotten his first snowfall so we can uncancel the winter cancel based on how much he gets before winter starts? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 On 11/17/2023 at 6:43 PM, Weather Will said: WB 12Z globals all give an inch of rain within 5 days, I will take it. Expand Lets hope for the GEM solution for Central-SW Virginia’s sake. Euro would be decent too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 I see the Euro's mid range wet bias is at it again. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 On 11/17/2023 at 6:51 PM, Terpeast said: Lets hope for the GEM solution for Central-SW Virginia’s sake. Euro would be decent too Expand At this point even a .10 inch would be better than nothing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 Fwiw, Natural Gas is trading at 2.9, down from 3.6, which implies a +NAO Winter. Greenland 500mb correlates at +80dm DJF with NG. https://ibb.co/c6X7MyN 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 On 11/17/2023 at 6:05 PM, Terpeast said: We're already in mid-winter form. Canceling winter before it even starts. In a -PDO/+ENSO battle like this season, there's going to be a lot more of this. At least it won't be boring like last winter. Just look at the models... STJ is becoming more and more active. Expand We just need PSU to get his 1" by Dec 1 and we are gravy baby. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 On 11/17/2023 at 6:45 PM, nj2va said: But what does PSU think? Has he gotten his first snowfall so we can uncancel the winter cancel based on how much he gets before winter starts? Expand 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 On 11/17/2023 at 7:09 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: We just need PSU to get his 1" by Dec 1 and we are gravy baby. The psu joke thing is getting old 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 17, 2023 Author Share Posted November 17, 2023 On 11/17/2023 at 7:35 PM, psuhoffman said: Expand Me looking at D10 Euro… 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 17, 2023 Author Share Posted November 17, 2023 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 On 11/17/2023 at 7:53 PM, WxUSAF said: Me looking at D10 Euro… Expand pretty stellar 2-day mean for this range... in late November. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 On 11/17/2023 at 7:35 PM, Ji said: The psu joke thing is getting old Expand Well ya better get used to it because it's be here until the inch happens, lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 On 11/17/2023 at 7:35 PM, Ji said: The psu joke thing is getting old Expand Quite contraire mi amigo....there is no joke therein. This is pretty serious stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 On 11/17/2023 at 7:09 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: We just need PSU to get his 1" by Dec 1 and we are gravy baby. Expand I know this is mostly a joke now…but just throwing this out there, while the numbers are compelling that snow in the colder parts of our region early is a good sign…it is, it’s also worth pointing out that the only 2 exceptions in the 75 years I looked at where our area got a snowy winter after not having an inch of snow here until after Xmas we’re both high analogs to this winter. 1987 and 1966. On top of that when I ran the numbers for only ninos the snow mean falls more slowly than in all years. That said early is still better. Early opens up the best analogs like 1958, 1964, 2003, 2010. 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 On 11/17/2023 at 8:19 PM, psuhoffman said: I know this is mostly a joke now…but just throwing this out there, while the numbers are compelling that snow in the colder parts of our region early is a good sign…it is, it’s also worth pointing out that the only 2 exceptions in the 75 years I looked at where our area got a snowy winter after not having an inch of snow here until after Xmas we’re both high analogs to this winter. 1987 and 1966. On top of that when I ran the numbers for only ninos the snow mean falls more slowly than in all years. That said early is still better. Early opens up the best analogs like 1958, 1964, 2003, 2010. Expand That was my point there is factual data that supports your theory. I'm really vested in seeing if your area can cash in sooner than later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 On 11/17/2023 at 7:35 PM, Ji said: The psu joke thing is getting old Expand This coming from you is hilarious 3 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 On 11/17/2023 at 8:02 PM, NorthArlington101 said: pretty stellar 2-day mean for this range... in late November. Expand its not as good as you think...its due to about 5 members giving us severe snow...including one 25 incher...but ya its fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 On 11/17/2023 at 8:19 PM, psuhoffman said: I know this is mostly a joke now…but just throwing this out there, while the numbers are compelling that snow in the colder parts of our region early is a good sign…it is, it’s also worth pointing out that the only 2 exceptions in the 75 years I looked at where our area got a snowy winter after not having an inch of snow here until after Xmas we’re both high analogs to this winter. 1987 and 1966. On top of that when I ran the numbers for only ninos the snow mean falls more slowly than in all years. That said early is still better. Early opens up the best analogs like 1958, 1964, 2003, 2010. Expand can it be much colder than normal and not snow due to bad luck and still be a good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 On 11/17/2023 at 8:53 PM, Ji said: its not as good as you think...its due to about 5 members giving us severe snow...including one 25 incher...but ya its fun Expand yeah I saw... but I'll take a "window" in late November that gives us a chance at a blockbuster over a 32 degree storm where I pray for .5" in the urban hellscape of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 On 11/17/2023 at 8:55 PM, NorthArlington101 said: yeah I saw... but I'll take a "window" in late November that gives us a chance at a blockbuster over a 32 degree storm where I pray for .5" in the urban hellscape of DC. Expand the biggest takeway is betwee Thanksgiving and Dec 3rd...the euro has us solidly below normal temps...so there is a pretty sustained window to get at least one event...psu's inch 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 On 11/17/2023 at 8:57 PM, Ji said: the biggest takeway is betwee Thanksgiving and Dec 3rd...the euro has us solidly below normal temps...so there is a pretty sustained window to get at least one event...psu's inch Expand this is just shameful friends....shame on you e39 1 2 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 On 11/17/2023 at 9:14 PM, Ji said: this is just shameful friends....shame on you e39 Expand Lmao it has snowfall rates of 2 plus inch per hour and gusts to 80 over the Delmarva. I mean it does technically have a 1/50 chance of happening right? I mean we can round 1/50 to like 10/50 and at that point why not 50/50 ... thats how math works so tell everyone about our guarantied blizzard. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 On 11/17/2023 at 8:57 PM, Ji said: the biggest takeway is betwee Thanksgiving and Dec 3rd...the euro has us solidly below normal temps...so there is a pretty sustained window to get at least one event...psu's inch Expand Really!? That PSU joke is really getting old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 Da hell is going in in here? Been busy but not much has changed imo. The period around the 28th still offers some potential for wintry weather, esp for climo favored areas. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 On 11/17/2023 at 9:48 PM, CAPE said: Da hell is going in in here? Been busy but not much has changed imo. The period around the 28th still offers some potential for wintry weather, esp for climo favored areas. Expand see what happens when you leave? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 On 11/17/2023 at 8:54 PM, Ji said: can it be much colder than normal and not snow due to bad luck and still be a good? Expand I haven’t drilled down to that level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 On 11/17/2023 at 10:35 PM, psuhoffman said: I haven’t drilled down to that level. Expand With that comment, pretty good chance someone got a 1” joke incoming. Just sayin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 On 11/17/2023 at 9:14 PM, Ji said: this is just shameful friends....shame on you e39 Expand Shame, shame! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 On 11/17/2023 at 8:17 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Quite contraire mi amigo....there is no joke therein. This is pretty serious stuff. Expand It seems most winters, there's some word or phrase that just becomes the "meme" of that year. The first inch thing might just be this year's!!! Remember in 2016, around the time of the blizzard, it was the word "amped"...and I'm sure "-PNA" has appeared many times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 On 11/17/2023 at 8:19 PM, psuhoffman said: I know this is mostly a joke now…but just throwing this out there, while the numbers are compelling that snow in the colder parts of our region early is a good sign…it is, it’s also worth pointing out that the only 2 exceptions in the 75 years I looked at where our area got a snowy winter after not having an inch of snow here until after Xmas we’re both high analogs to this winter. 1987 and 1966. On top of that when I ran the numbers for only ninos the snow mean falls more slowly than in all years. That said early is still better. Early opens up the best analogs like 1958, 1964, 2003, 2010. Expand Ok, I ran some numbers for DCA. For the period 1950-forward, the correlation between temps and snow gets stronger as you go through the winter. We root for cold and hope for precip. Snow on the vertical axis, temp departure from current norms on the horizontal axis. Interesting note on the final (full season) chart. The two 20"+ winters that were above normal temps were due to HECS (1983, 2016). So, you want to have a full-season negative departure or you are praying for a fluke. 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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