Daniel Boone Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Pacific changes from unfavorable to favorable for cold 11/20 AO goes negative 11/24 Models try to give NAO negative as a 3rd wave 11/30, but I'd watch for fluctuations, as the last few weeks has had a lot of NAO changes at that range. Then there is signal for wave dropping into the SW 12/1-2, possibly timing with -NAO lifting out around 12/3-5, but that's far away.. Yeah, looking like a period to watch for possible first significant snowfall. May be back to the famed Dec 5 Spotlight Day. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 The fact that we already have a trackable period with guaranteed cold and it being the question of precipitation being there shows how different this year will be from other years. Can't believe we already can watch models in November. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 17 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: The fact that we already have a trackable period with guaranteed cold and it being the question of precipitation being there shows how different this year will be from other years. Can't believe we already can watch models in November. No such thing as guaranteed 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: No such thing as guaranteed that's true but it's pretty much guaranteed when you have that type of signature and u have a whole tpv lobe coming down with a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 10 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: that's true but it's pretty much guaranteed when you have that type of signature and u have a whole tpv lobe coming down with a storm Looks like it will be chilly for a spell. The pretty colors in the 'right places' on guidance is nice to see. Climo rules. It isnt early Feb. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 18 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: No such thing as guaranteed Sure there is. I guarantee the models will show a different solutions multiple times lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 Some cold Nov rain would make me happy. Dust bowl out there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 WB 12Z EPS. I can guarantee at least one of these will be correct...somewhere between 0 and a blizzard. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 48 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: The fact that we already have a trackable period with guaranteed cold and it being the question of precipitation being there shows how different this year will be from other years. Can't believe we already can watch models in November. This will be our first test to see if we'll see a juiced up, cold verification or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 WB 12Z EPS 8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 19 minutes ago, CAPE said: Looks like it will be chilly for a spell. The pretty colors in the 'right places' on guidance is nice to see. Climo rules. It isnt early Feb. When it likely doesn’t snow later this month in most places here (except the mountains + favored far NW places), get ready for the complaints that “the pattern didn’t deliver and get ready for a winter of disappointment” posts. The reality is this is way too early in the season for the majority of us. I am just really happy to see that it’s not wall to wall pac puke right now. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 17 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EPS. I can guarantee at least one of these will be correct...somewhere between 0 and a blizzard. I'll take Number 12 for $5000, Alex. We will all win! You might want to turn up the speakers to at least 900 decibels for this one! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EPS Wisp, Canaan, and Snowshoe will be able to make snow with multiple chances of upslope/events in that pattern to kick off their season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 Source cold from central Canada is no joke over the next couple of weeks. Low single digits even moderated to the east coast is high teens/lower 20's. Pretty anomalous for the Thanksgiving timeframe. Not unheard of but not anywhere near normal either. Cold turkey day incoming. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: Wisp, Canaan, and Snowshoe will be able to make snow with multiple chances of upslope/events in that pattern to kick off their season. Thanks for the tip! I am gonna find their webcams and watch snow to my heart's content! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: When it likely doesn’t snow later this month in most places here (except the mountains + favored far NW places), get ready for the complaints that “the pattern didn’t deliver and get ready for a winter of disappointment” posts. The reality is this is way too early in the season for the majority of us. I am just really happy to see that it’s not wall to wall pac puke right now. I think its gonna snow way earlier than normal for lowlanders. Accumulating? Maybe not. But the cold coming isnt a joke either. Its gonna be shocking for some people the week after Thanksgiving is going to be straight up winter. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 1 hour ago, AtlanticWx said: The fact that we already have a trackable period with guaranteed cold and it being the question of precipitation being there shows how different this year will be from other years. Can't believe we already can watch models in November. We have a major winnah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 Just now, clskinsfan said: I think its gonna snow way earlier than normal for lowlanders. Accumulating? Maybe not. But the cold coming isnt a joke either. Its gonna be shocking for some people the week after Thanksgiving is going to be straight up winter. I hope you guys get completely destroyed, by cold and by snow! You are overdue and it is HIGH TIME! Why not get an early start?!!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I think its gonna snow way earlier than normal for lowlanders. Accumulating? Maybe not. But the cold coming isnt a joke either. Its gonna be shocking for some people the week after Thanksgiving is going to be straight up winter. I just re-upped my WxBell subscription so I’ll bill you if you’re wrong. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 With the pattern advertised on the 12z EPS we should also see decent snow cover develop over southern Canada and the Great Lakes. Good to build it up now so future airmasses during better climo aren't modified too much over warm, bare ground. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 1 minute ago, nj2va said: I just re-upped my WxBell subscription so I’ll bill you if you’re wrong. Look whats dropping in from Central Canada after Thanksgiving brother. No joke its COLD. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 54 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Look whats dropping in from Central Canada after Thanksgiving brother. No joke its COLD. For that to work in our favor, we want it to bleed south slowly and really pour into the US to our west. We don't want some shot of cold air directed right over us like last winter because it just jacks up the pattern and we get stuck in cold and dry for a few days. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: For that to work in our favor, we want it to bleed south slowly and really pour into the US to our west. We don't want some shot of cold air directed right over us like last winter because it just jacks up the pattern and we get stuck in cold and dry for a few days. Such an early cold shot though. I will take it right now. Pretty much everything is lining us up for a nice winter. As long as PSU gets a god damn inch we are good. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: For that to work in our favor, we want it to bleed south slowly and really pour into the US to our west. Haven't we played that game multiple times the last few years? The cold gets trapped in the west and can't make it over the mountains while we toast. The eastern CONUS loses either way. I enjoyed the Christmas cold shot last year for what it was. I definitely enjoyed it more than the 2015 torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 3 hours ago, cbmclean said: Haven't we played that game multiple times the last few years? The cold gets trapped in the west and can't make it over the mountains while we toast. The eastern CONUS loses either way. I enjoyed the Christmas cold shot last year for what it was. I definitely enjoyed it more than the 2015 torch. Yes that can happen, but typically it's reserved for a La Nina year where the southeast ridge is pumped up and just deflects everything away from us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 17, 2023 Author Share Posted November 17, 2023 6z gfs/GEFS got some morning indigestion or something. Just slightly different for the holiday weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 6z gfs/GEFS got some morning indigestion or something. Just slightly different for the holiday weekend. Vodka cold at 0z to Margaritas at 6z. Lucy is warming up for the new season. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 “Guaranteed Cold” 2023 catch phrase 3 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: “Guaranteed Cold” 2023 catch phrase Only took about 12 hours to not age well. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 1 hour ago, Wxdavis5784 said: Only took about 12 hours to not age well. The November pump-and-dump; every single year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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