cbmclean Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 4 hours ago, CAPE said: Spire lookin good I'm loving this ----EPO eye candy, but is it reasonable to be concerned that maybe this is too much of a good thing, especially so early in the NH cold season? Will the air of the source region have even had time to really chill in the polar night? If it discharges before it's had time to "marinate", will we just be left with a marginal early seaon cold outbreak and a depleted source region? Of course this is all just a hypothetical concern assuming the modeling even comes close to verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 18 minutes ago, CAPE said: The ens mean ofc has a stronger signal for frozen(albeit still modest) than the previous 2 runs where the op snowed on us. This upcoming period is good practice if nothing else. We gonna be busy this winter. Hopefully busy tracking snow and not cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 A bit silly but just for fun. The latest Euro Weeklies @h5 for Xmas into New Years. 16 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 25 minutes ago, Stormfly said: Super cheap then. Average residential main supply isn't adequate for snowmaking. A pond and good centrifugal pump or irrigation system can fix that. A Hale fire pump can work in a pinch as long as the head isn't too high. Disagree 100%. I know, we did it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: A bit silly but just for fun. The latest Euro Weeklies @h5 for Xmas into New Years. Once again showing the trough near Hawaii and at least a lobe over the TPV on our side of the globe. Nice. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Once again showing the trough near Hawaii and at least a lobe over the TPV on our side of the globe. Nice. Don't forget the -h5 height anomalies across the mid south/SE up into the MA. Classic Nino. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 39 minutes ago, CAPE said: The ens mean ofc has a stronger signal for frozen(albeit still modest) than the previous 2 runs where the op snowed on us. This upcoming period is good practice if nothing else. We gonna be busy this winter. We have a Winnah. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 Baltimore TV mets posting a Euro OP 1104 hour snow map on social media. 9 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 3 hours ago, wxdude64 said: Disagree 100%. I know, we did it. Specs or it's BS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 0z kind of took some wind out of my sail. I am not surprised and expect a lot of wild swings in the long range. I just want to track a legit system. It has been too long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 13 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: 0z kind of took some wind out of my sail. I am not surprised and expect a lot of wild swings in the long range. I just want to track a legit system. It has been too long Now probably isn't a good time to go op run by op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 Nice signal on the 0z GEFS with a discrete shortwave that tracks NE to the MA coast on the 28th. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 GEPS has it too- a bit further south. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 WB 6Z GFS, cold Thanksgiving incoming.... 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 16, 2023 Author Share Posted November 16, 2023 0z Euro jumped on the cold/very cold holiday period. A lot of previous runs kept the coldest air well north even as GFS and GGEM brought the TPV south. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 SPV is forecast to be somewhat perturbed going forward. Can see a nice stretch and on the temp anomaly panel it looks a bit toasty. Forecast strength and position of the SPV at 10 and 50 mb, along with TPV locations at h5- 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 The 0z EPS looks quite active around the 28th too. When I made the original posts early this morning that run had not completed yet. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 ^weak wave riding a fresh airmass...we can score easily in those events. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: ^weak wave riding a fresh airmass...we can score easily in those events. Most definitely. Easy money way to get on the board early! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: ^weak wave riding a fresh airmass...we can score easily in those events. What 'should' historically be different this season (Nino) vs last few (Nina) these followup waves won't get shredded to smithereens every time. Have a good feeling the shred factory is not going to be our biggest problem this season. Definitely not hating the advertised longwave signals moving forward. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 Let's keep getting snowpack in the source regions! https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1724988203868766690?s=20 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 22 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: ^weak wave riding a fresh airmass...we can score easily in those events. We just need PSU to get his first inch. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 40 minutes ago, Scraff said: We just need PSU to get his first inch. There's a joke in there somewhere I think 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 A snowstorm would be cool, but it would also be cool if we can get an actual storm of any kind lol. With that said, I sold my jeep the other day (which was not fun, but it was time), so I expect this to be one helluva winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 Thought the 12z GFS might have been trying to cook something up at 186-ish, but the southern energy slid off the coast before the energy out west could eject east. Still...Nino is absolutely starting to flex. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 1 hour ago, 87storms said: A snowstorm would be cool, but it would also be cool if we can get an actual storm of any kind lol. With that said, I sold my jeep the other day (which was not fun, but it was time), so I expect this to be one helluva winter. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 19 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: It's gonna be 84 years that I think about that jeep lol. Those cars sure our addictive. Maybe I'll reup in a couple years when/if new 2 door Wranglers with crank windows and no power locks are under 30k (smh at this economy). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 Pacific changes from unfavorable to favorable for cold 11/20 AO goes negative 11/24 Models try to give NAO negative as a 3rd wave 11/30, but I'd watch for fluctuations, as the last few weeks has had a lot of NAO changes at that range. Then there is signal for wave dropping into the SW 12/1-2, possibly timing with -NAO lifting out around 12/3-5, but that's far away.. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 16, 2023 Author Share Posted November 16, 2023 Verbatim, 12z GGEM would threaten some record low maxes/record lows next Friday-Saturday. Especially for BWI and maybe IAD. But GGEM runs too cold at the surface…although I think gfs is too warm also. My wag right now is maybe 18-22 for lows at BWI and IAD and highs in the upper 30s? 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 16 hours ago, Stormfly said: Specs or it's BS! Sent you a PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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